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Can you feel it? It’s almost time for America’s biggest annual holiday: the Super Bowl! (A holiday that none of us actually get off, except for people in Cincinnati and Dayton last year.)
The food, the drinks, the parties, the commercials, and of course, the betting! Especially the Super Bowl prop bets!
No other sporting event in America is bet on more and no other sporting event has as many fun prop bets to wager on than the Super Bowl.
So, with all of that in mind, here are the Super Bowl prop bets for 2023 that we think will be solid based on historical results.
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Predicting 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets Based On Prior Results
1: What will the results of the coin toss be?
Heads (-104)
Tails (-104)
Previous five years results:
2021: Heads (Bengals)
2021: Heads (Chiefs)
2020: Tails (49ers)
2019: Tails (Rams)
2018: Heads (Patriots)
Prediction: Well, it’s a coin toss, so… with three of the past five Super Bowl coin tosses coming up Heads, maybe Tails is now due? Plus, Tails is currently in the lead overall in Super Bowls 29 to 27 over Heads. Go with your gut.
2. Will the team that wins the coin toss also win the Super Bowl?
Yes (-104)
No (-104)
Previous five years results:
2022: No (Bengals)
2021: No (Chiefs)
2020: No (49ers)
2019: No (Rams)
2018: No (Patriots)
Prediction: Based on the past five years’ results, the answer to this prop bet question would be No. Let’s take a step further though, shall we? We shall. Over the past 20 Super Bowls, the team that won the coin toss ended up losing the game 14 times. On top of that, you have to go back to the Seahawks against the Broncos in 2014 to find the last time the team that won the coin toss also won the Lombardi Trophy.
3. Will the team that scores first win the game?
Yes (-165)
No (+135)
Previous five years results:
2022: Yes (Rams)
2021: No (Chiefs)
2020: No (49ers)
2019: Yes (Patriots)
2018: Yes (Eagles)
Prediction: Much like winning the coin toss, scoring first in the Super Bowl, at least over the last five years, has little bearing on winning the game. Despite that, the sportsbooks appear to believe that it does. Take advantage of that and pick Yes.
4. How will the first points be scored?
Touchdown (-200)
Field Goal (+155)
Safety (+3000)
Previous five years results:
2022: Touchdown (Rams)
2021: Field Goal (Chiefs)
2020: Field Goal (49ers)
2019: Field Goal (Patriots)
2018: Field Goal (Eagles)
Prediction: While betting on the first score of the Super Bowl to be a safety is almost too tempting to pass up every year, recent historical data strongly suggests that one of these two teams will get on the board first with a field goal. We’re betting that streak will continue. (Still, we’d put a couple of bucks down on it being a safety. Just look at those odds!)
5. How many field goals will be successfully made?
Over 3.5 (+125)
Under 3.5 (-165)
Previous five years results:
2022: 3
2021: 4
2020: 3
2019: 3
2018: 5
Prediction: There has been an average of a little more than three field goals per game over the past five Super Bowls. With Harrison Butker (88.2% in his career) and Jake Elliott (84.7%) both being very accurate kickers combined with the Chiefs and Eagles both having very solid defenses, there could be a lot of field goals in this Super Bowl. Go with the over.
6. What will be the longest field goal made?
Over 45.5 yards (-115)
Under 45.5 yards (-115)
Previous five years results:
2022: 41 yards (Rams)
2021: 52 yards (Chiefs)
2020: 42 yards (49ers)
2019: 53 yards (Rams)
2018: 46 yards (Eagles)
Prediction: Harrison Butker is 23 for 35 over 50 yards in his career. Jake Elliott is 19 for 29. Take the over.
7. What will be the shortest touchdown?
Over 1.5 yards (+110)
Under 1.5 yards (-155)
Previous five years results:
2022: 1 yard (Rams)
2021: 1 yard (Buccaneers)
2020: 1 yard (Chiefs)
2019: 2 yards (Patriots)
2018: 1 yard (Eagles)
Prediction: If recent history is any indication, you should definitely bet the under. The average shortest touchdown for the past five Super Bowls is 1.2 yards and four out of the last five Super Bowls have seen a score from the one-yard line.
8. How many total touchdowns will be scored?
Over 5.5 (-125)
Under 5.5 (-105)
Previous five years results:
2022: 5
2021: 4
2020: 6
2019: 1
2018: 9
Prediction: This is a tough one. Both offenses are capable of scoring a lot of points. Then again, both defenses have shown they have the ability to shut down just about anyone. Throw in some nerves and the fact that the last five Super Bowls have averaged five touchdowns and we’re thinking that taking the under is the smart move.
9. Will the team that scores first win the game?
Yes (-200)
No (+140)
Previous five years results:
2022: Yes
2021: No
2020: No
2019: Yes
2018: Yes
Prediction: Over all 56 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won 37 times, or 66 percent of the time. However, if that first score is a field goal and not a touchdown, it drops to just 59 percent. That’s not much different than a coin toss. Take No and cross your fingers.
10. Will the game go into overtime?
Yes (+800)
No (-3000)
Previous five years results:
2022: No
2021: No
2020: No
2019: No
2018: No
Prediction: Normally, this would be a no-brainer and we would say No. Not this year. Considering the largest margin of victory over the past seven playoff games has been six points (and that game went into overtime), and six of the seven were won by just three points, this is a off-the-wall prop bet that might not be so dumb to put a little cash down on come Super Bowl Sunday.
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