Predicting The Outcome Of 11 Popular Super Bowl Prop Bets Based On Prior Results

super bowl prop bets

Can you feel it? It’s almost time for America’s biggest annual holiday: the Super Bowl! (A holiday that none of us actually get off, unless you are a student in Cincinnati and Dayton, but that is a story for another day.)

The food, the drinks, the parties, the commercials, and of course, the betting! Especially the Super Bowl prop bets!

No other sporting event in America is bet on more and no other sporting event has as many fun prop bets to wager on than the Super Bowl.

So, with all of that in mind, here are the Super Bowl prop bets for 2022 that we think will be solid based on historical results.

Predicting 11 Super Bowl Prop Bets Based On Prior Results

1: What will the results of the coin toss be?

Heads (-104)
Tails (-104)
Fanduel Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: Heads (Chiefs)
2020: Tails (49ers)
2019: Tails (Rams)
2018: Heads (Patriots)
2017: Tails (Falcons)

Prediction: Well, it’s a coin toss, so… with three of the past five Super Bowl coin tosses coming up Tails, maybe Heads is now due? Plus, Tails is currently in the lead overall in Super Bowls 29 to 26 over Heads. Go with your gut.

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2. Will the team that wins the coin toss also win the Super Bowl?

Yes (-104)
No (-104)
FanDuel Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: No (Chiefs)
2020: No (49ers)
2019: No (Rams)
2018: No (Patriots)
2017: No (Falcons)

Prediction: Based on the past five years’ results, the answer to this prop bet question would be No. Let’s take a step further though, shall we? We shall. Going back five more years, the team that won the coin toss lost the game three more times. Another five years and two more teams lost. Five more and four more teams who won the toss lost. So over the past 20 Super Bowls, the team that won the coin toss ended up losing the game 14 times. I think you can see where this is heading.

3. Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes (-205)
No (+166)
FanDuel Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: No (Chiefs)
2020: No (49ers)
2019: Yes (Patriots)
2018: Yes (Eagles)
2017: No (Falcons)

Prediction: Much like winning the coin toss, scoring first in the Super Bowl, at least over the last five years, has little bearing on winning the game. Despite that, the sportsbooks appear to believe that it does. Take advantage of that and pick Yes.

4. How will the first points be scored?

Touchdown (-170)
Field Goal (+125)
Safety (+2500)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: Field Goal (Chiefs)
2020: Field Goal (49ers)
2019: Field Goal (Patriots)
2018: Field Goal (Eagles)
2017: Touchdown (Falcons)

Prediction: While betting on the first score of the Super Bowl to be a safety is almost too tempting to pass up every year, recent historical data strongly suggests that one of these two teams will get on the board first with a field goal. We’re betting that streak will continue. (Still, we’d put a couple of bucks down on it being a safety. Just look at those odds!)

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5. How many field goals will be successfully made?

Over 3.5 (+110)
Under 3.5 (-150)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: 4
2020: 3
2019: 3
2018: 5
2017: 2

Prediction: Historically, there have been an average of 3.4 field goals per game over the past five Super Bowls. With Evan McPherson (84.8%) and Matt Gay (85.9%) both being very accurate kickers combined with the Bengals and Rams both having very solid defenses, there could be a lot of field goals in this Super Bowl. Go with the over.

Predicting The Outcome Of Popular 2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets Based On Prior Results

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6. What will be the longest field goal made?

Over 47.5 yards (-110)
Under 47.5 yards (-125)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: 52 yards (Chiefs)
2020: 42 yards (49ers)
2019: 53 yards (Rams)
2018: 46 yards (Eagles)
2017: 41 yards (Patriots)

Prediction: Evan McPherson went 9-11 on field goals over 50 yards this year, plus he’s been 3-3 in the postseason. Matt Gay went 4-5 this season (0-1 in the postseason) and is 10-14 over the past three seasons. Take the over.

7. How long will the first touchdown be?

Over 6.5 yards (-115)
Under 6.5 yards (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: 8 yards
2020: 1 yard
2019: 2 yards
2018: 21 yards
2017: 5 yards

Prediction: If recent history has anything to say about this particular prop bet, it’s that the first touchdown is not going to be a long one. However, in two of the past five years betting the over still would have been a money maker. Throw in the fact that this game will feature big play guys like Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and we’re thinking it will be more than 6.5 yards.

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8. What will be the shortest touchdown?

Over 1.5 yards (+100)
Under 1.5 yards (-130)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: 1 yard (Buccaneers)
2020: 1 yard (Chiefs)
2019: 2 yards (Patriots)
2018: 1 yard (Eagles)
2017: 1 yard (Patriots)

Prediction: If recent history is any indication, you should definitely bet the under. The average shortest touchdown for the past five Super Bowls is 1.2 yards and four out of the last five Super Bowls have seen a score from the one-yard line.

9. How many total touchdowns will be scored?

Over 5.5 (-120)
Under 5.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: 4
2020: 6
2019: 1
2018: 9
2017: 8

Prediction: This is a tough one. Both offenses are capable of scoring a lot of points. Then again, both defenses have shown they have the ability to shut down just about anyone. Throw in some nerves and the fact that the last five Super Bowls have averged 5.6 touchdowns and we’re thinking that taking the under is the smart move.

10. Will there be a successful two-point conversion?

Yes (+250)
No (-360)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: No
2020: No
2019: No
2018: No
2017: Yes

Prediction: Going for two, especially in the Super Bowl, is either a very risky proposition or an absolute necessity based on the score. Either way there is considerably more pressure on succeeding when attempting one in a big game such as this. Head coaches Sean McVay and Zac Taylor had just three successful two-point conversions combined in 34 games in 2021 (going 2-3 and 1-3 respectively). Don’t bet on them trying one in the Super Bowl.

11. Will the game go into overtime?

Yes (+950)
No (-2000)
DraftKings Sportsbook

Previous five years results:
2021: No
2020: No
2019: No
2018: No
2017: Yes (the infamous 28-3 game)

Prediction: Normally, this would be a no-brainer and we would say No. Not this year. Considering the largest margin of victory over the past six playoff games has been six points (and that game went into overtime), and five of the six were won by just three points, this is a off-the-wall prop bet that might not be so dumb to put a little cash down on come Super Bowl Sunday.

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