Predicting Popular Super Bowl Prop Bets Based On Past Results

CBS Sports PR

Can you feel it? It’s almost time for America’s biggest annual holiday: the Super Bowl! (A holiday that none of us actually get off, except for people in Cincinnati and Dayton last year.)

The food, the drinks, the parties, the commercials, and of course, the betting! Especially the Super Bowl prop bets!

No other sporting event in America is bet on more and no other sporting event has as many fun prop bets to wager on than the Super Bowl.

So, with all of that in mind, here are the Super Bowl prop bets for 2023 that we think will be solid based on historical results.

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Predicting 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets Based On Prior Results

1: What will the results of the coin toss be?

Heads (+100)
Tails (+100)

Previous five years results:
2023: Tails (Chiefs)
2022: Heads (Bengals)
2021: Heads (Chiefs)
2020: Tails (49ers)
2019: Tails (Rams)

Prediction: Well, it’s a coin toss, so… with three of the past five Super Bowl coin tosses coming up Heads, maybe Tails is now due? Plus, Tails is currently in the lead overall in Super Bowls 30 to 27 over Heads. Go with your gut.

2. Will the team that wins the coin toss also win the Super Bowl?

Yes (+100)
No (+100)

Previous five years results:
2023: Yes (Chiefs)
2022: No (Bengals)
2021: No (Chiefs)
2020: No (49ers)
2019: No (Rams)

Prediction: Based on the past five years’ results, the answer to this prop bet question would be “No.” Let’s take a step further though, shall we? We shall. Over the past 20 Super Bowls, the team that won the coin toss ended up losing the game 14 times. On top of that, before last year, you have to go back to the Seahawks against the Broncos in 2014 to find the last time the team that won the coin toss also won the Lombardi Trophy.

3. Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes (-185)
No (+140)

Previous five years results:
2023: No (Eagles)
2022: Yes (Rams)
2021: No (Chiefs)
2020: No (49ers)
2019: Yes (Patriots)

Prediction: Much like winning the coin toss, scoring first in the Super Bowl, at least over the last five years, has little bearing on winning the game. Despite that, the sportsbooks appear to think that it does. Pick your poison.

4. Will there be a safety during the game?

Yes (+900)
No (-1430)

Prediction: What do you think? There have only been nine safeties in the history of the Super Bowl. (Still, we’d put a couple of bucks down on it being a safety. Just look at those odds!)

5. What will be the longest field goal made?

Over 47.5 yards (-110)
Under 47.5 yards (-110)

Previous five years results:
2023: 35 yards (Eagles)
2022: 41 yards (Rams)
2021: 52 yards (Chiefs)
2020: 42 yards (49ers)
2019: 53 yards (Rams)

Prediction: Harrison Butker is 26 for 38 over 50 yards in his career. Jake Moody is 2 for 3. Take the over.

6. What will be the shortest touchdown?

Over 1.5 yards (+140)
Under 1.5 yards (-160)

Previous five years results:
2023: 1 yard (Eagles)
2022: 1 yard (Rams)
2021: 1 yard (Buccaneers)
2020: 1 yard (Chiefs)
2019: 2 yards (Patriots)

Prediction: If recent history is any indication, you should definitely bet the under. The average shortest touchdown for the past five Super Bowls is 1.2 yards and four out of the last five Super Bowls have seen a score from the one-yard line.

7. How many total touchdowns will be scored?

Over 5.5 (+110)
Under 5.5 (-130)

Previous five years results:
2023: 9
2022: 5
2021: 4
2020: 6
2019: 1

Prediction: This is a tough one. Both offenses are capable of scoring a lot of points. Then again, both defenses have shown they have the ability to shut down their opponents. Throw in some nerves and the fact that the last five Super Bowls have averaged five touchdowns and we’re thinking that taking the under is the smart move.

8. Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes (-165)
No (+145)

Previous five years results:
2023: No
2022: Yes
2021: No
2020: No
2019: Yes

Prediction: Over all 57 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won 37 times, or almost 66 percent of the time. However, if that first score is a field goal and not a touchdown, it drops to under 60 percent. That’s not much different than a coin toss. Based on more recent history, take “No” and cross your fingers.

9. Will the game go into overtime?

Yes (+900)
No (-1600)

Previous five years results:
2023: No
2022: No
2021: No
2020: No
2019: No

Prediction: Normally, this would be a no-brainer and we would say “No.” It has only happened once in 57 years. However, in the last two Super Bowls’ margin of victory was just three points, so this is a off-the-wall prop bet that might not be so dumb to put a little cash down on come Super Bowl Sunday.

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