Breaking Down The Most Popular Prop Bets For Super Bowl LVIII

The Super Bowl is basically the sports betting equivalent of Christmas for gamblers who have no shortage of options when it comes to the wagers they can place ahead of (and during) The Big Game, and that’s once again the case thanks to the many prop bets that have been released for the showdown between the Chiefs and the 49ers in Las Vegas.

Related: Here Are The 4 Best Sportsbook Promos For This Year’s Big Game

There are plenty of storylines to keep an eye on in the lead-up to Super Bowl LVIII. Most NFL fans are probably rooting for the San Francisco 49ers to take home the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in 40 years, and while the Kansas City Chiefs are technically the underdogs, it’s pretty hard to count out any team that has Patrick Mahomes has their quarterback.

The 49ers are only favored by a couple of points heading into the contest. The spread will undoubtedly be one of the most popular bets of the evening, it’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the potential wagers at your disposal.

BetMGM has hundreds of prop bets available for Super Bowl LVIII, so we took the time to comb through them to put together a guide concerning some of the ones that stood out.

A closer look at the most popular and intriguing prop bets for Super Bowl LVIII

Coin Toss

• Heads: -105
• Tails: -105

This bet is literally a coin toss, and the only guaranteed winners are the sportsbooks who gain an edge by making both results a slight favorite.

While the results of the coin toss should theoretically be 50-50, tails has historically had a slight edge over the decades by coming up 30 times compared to the 27 instances where heads has prevailed.

I personally have a tough time resisting the urge to adopt the “Tails Never Fails” mentality despite evidence that firmly shows it has failed on 27 occasions, and even though there’s no intelligent way to predict how this might pan out, no Super Bowl betting slate is truly complete without it.

What will be the outcome of the opening kickoff?

• Touchback: -375
• Return Attempt: +250

This is one of those bets that seems like a no-brainer at first glance when you look at the odds, but a closer examination paints a slightly different picture.

Kickoffs have become a formality in recent years to the point where the NFL has toyed with the idea of eliminating them entirely, and when you consider kickers are probably going to be dealing with a little bit of an adrenaline rush and doing their thing inside a dome, it’s not a stretch to assume there’s going to be a touchback.

However, there have only been four touchbacks recorded at the Super Bowl in the past 32 years (good for 12.5%). It’s obviously worth noting all of those have occurred when the game was played at an indoor venue (which is the case this year), but Pat McAfee has also said the fact that the football used for the opening kickoff is brand new can serve as a hindrance when it comes to distance.

At the end of the day, there’s a reason the touchback is the favorite here, but a return attempt doesn’t seem like the worst bet you could make.

What will be the longest kickoff return?

• Over 27.5 yards: +110
• Under 27.5 yards: -135

There are a couple of other stats you might want to take into consideration when it comes to discussing this bet (as well as the last one): 83.3% of the kickoffs the Chiefs attempted this year resulted in a touchback, while that number falls to 62.4% when discussing the 49ers.

I should point out that both of those teams play in stadiums that are exposed to the elements, so while it seems like a dome is more conducive to longer kicks, I also don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest a returner will get the chance to run the ball back at some point during Super Bowl LVIII.

Will anyone be able to surpass the 27.5-yard mark? Only time will tell, but I’d probably take the over just to make every kickoff a little more intriguing.

Will either team record a successful 2-point conversion?

• Yes: +125
• No: -165

The 2-point conversion didn’t become A Thing in the NFL until the start of the regular season in 1994, and the Chargers took advantage on two occasions during their ill-fated attempt to mount a comeback against the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIX.

Those successful conversions are responsible for two of the 11 2-point conversions that have unfolded in Super Bowl history, although there have only been nine games where at least one has been scored (the Patriots also needed a couple to pull off their miraculous comeback against the Falcons in 2017).

That means a 2-point conversion has only been scored in the Super Bowl around 32% of the time since being introduced, which means “No” would appear to be the right bet to make here.

Will there be a safety in Super Bowl LVIII?

• Yes: +1000
• No: -3000

You’re not going to get a ton of value here by betting on “No,” but it is kind of hard to resist the quadruple-digit odds you’ll get by going in the opposite direction.

Steelers lineman Dwight White secured the first safety in the history of The Big Game when he sacked Vikings QB Frank Tankerton in the endzone in Super Bowl IX, which was the first of the nine that have been recorded on the NFL’s largest stage (they all came in different games, which means they’ve occurred 15.8% of the time).

This particular bet became a bit more popular after safeties Had A Moment in the 2010s, as one was scored in three consecutive games starting with Super Bowl XLVI.

If you’re curious, neither Patrick Mahomes nor Brock Purdy has surrendered a safety during their time in the NFL, and while I personally feel like those records will remain unmarred by the time the game wraps up, there’s a first time for everything.

Who will throw for more yards: Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy?

• Patrick Mahomes: -140
• Brock Purdy: +105

This is honestly tighter than I thought it would be.

Brock Purdy has firmly defied the “Mr. Irrelevant” label that was bestowed upon him when he was the last pick in the NFL Draft. He’s undoubtedly been incredibly impressive, but he’s still a second-year player who hasn’t had to deal with the pressure that comes with playing in the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes, on the other hand, is one of the best QBs (if not the best) in the NFL and heads into Sunday hoping to add a third Super Bowl ring to his collection. There’s no such thing as “smart money” when the odds are that tight, but I find it hard to believe Purdy will have the edge in the passing yards column when everything is said and done

How many passing yards will Travis Kelce record?

• Over 70.5: -125
• Under 70.5: -105

Travis Kelce has attracted an infinite amount of attention on and off of the field this season thanks to his high-profile relationship with Taylor Swift, and the dominant tight end is also a key item of focus for opposing defenses tasked with stopping him.

Kelce averaged 65.6 yards per game over the course of the regular season in 2023, but that number rose to 78.8 in games where Swift was in attendance (she’s expected to fly overnight from Japan to watch him do his thing against the 49ers).

He’s also averaged 75.7 yards in the three Super Bowls he’s already appeared in, although he only posted 43 in his first appearance before following it up with games where he recorded 133 and 81 yards through the air.

There’s little doubt the 49ers will go out of their way to try to shut him down, but the over still seems like a very viable possibility.

Will the game be decided by exactly three points?

• Yes: +450
• No: -650

In 2023, the Chiefs edged out the Eagles by a score of 38-35 a year after the Rams walked away with a 23-20 victory over the Bengals. If you can do some incredibly simple math, then you know that means the past two Super Bowls have been decided by exactly three points.

As I previously mentioned, the 49ers are favored to win by two, so the oddsmakers expect it to be a tight game. Attempting to guess the exact margin of victory by either team is certainly a tall task, but I honestly don’t hate this one given the potential returns.

Will Super Bowl LVIII go into overtime?

• Yes: +750
• No: -2500

As was the case with the safety bet, you’re not getting much value by opting for the second option here, although the potential returns for going with “Yes” may be a bit hard to resist. With that said, history won’t be on your side.

Again, Super Bowl LVIII is expected to be a pretty tight matchup when you consider the 49ers head into the game as 2-point favorites. As a result, it seems like there’s a good chance it could go down to the wire, although betting on an outcome that has only occurred 1.8% of the time may be slightly ill-advised.

Related: Here Are The 4 Best Sportsbook Promos For This Year’s Big Game

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