I’ve complained a lot about the quality of NFL football this year, but you can’t complain about the endings to the last three NFL games. On Sunday night, Denver won on a 48-yard touchdown run in overtime. On Monday night, Baltimore won on a blocked field goal return as time was expiring. (Maybe Cleveland should start looking at this Alabama recruit as a first round pick in four years.) Finally last night the Packers came back from 20-0 down to win on a Hail Mary against the poor Lions. You see a Hail Mary work every so often and they’re always so much fun. (Unless you live in Detroit… It cause Calvin Johnson to go down a Super Mario tunnel.) I guess Aaron Rodgers isn’t hurt if he can fling the ball 70 yards in the air like that. The key was the arc of the ball allowed Richard Rodgers to get under it enough to make the catch. The city of Detroit hasn’t been in this state of shock since B Rabbit won his first rap battle.
Locks of the Week:
Denver -4.5 over SAN DIEGO
Things are looking pretty good in Denver now that the Broncos have an offense to go with their league best defense. And now they get to enjoy a weekend in San Diego. Have you ever not enjoyed a weekend in San Diego? I know I haven’t. The great weather, the beach, the women, the fish tacos, the PB Shore House… What’s not to like? Every team in the NFL seems to deal the same way as they are 5-1 against the spread when playing at San Diego this year. Combine the Broncos newfound rushing attack (what a difference the quarterback being behind center makes) with the Chargers worst in the league run defense according to Football Outsiders and you have yourself a winner.
J.Camm’s Pick: Denver
New England -9.5 over Philadelphia
It’ll be interesting to see how effective New England’s offense is without Gronk, but for one week it shouldn’t really matter. The Eagles have given up 45 points in two straight games and have possibly the worst starting cornerback duo in the league this week. Danny Amendola’s return will help the Patriots surge close to 30 points while the return of Dont’a Hightower will get the defense locked in once again. The Patriots also have always played better when mad and they’re pissed off after how they lost last week’s game. (cough.. cough… referees… cough)
J.Camm’s Pick: New England
Indianapolis +5.5 over PITTSBURGH
Maybe their opponents haven’t been great in the four games they’ve won with Matt Hasselbeck but the Colts are winning the football games. As mentioned on Pro Football Focus, Hasselbeck is actually working out better for Indianapolis’ poor offensive line because he’s doesn’t hold the ball as long as Andrew Luck. The Colts have also turned things around on the defensive end too, showing up in the top 17 league-wide in both rushing and passing defense according to Football Outsiders. I have no problem taking just more than the touchdown.
J.Camm’s Pick: Pittsburgh
Trap Games of the Week:
Atlanta +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
I’ve been on the Tampa Bay bandwagon for a while now, but they just looked as if they lost a little edge last week. Maybe I’m overreacting, but I think their 24th ranked passing defense will be the cure for what ails the Atlanta offense. This is a sneaky under game as neither offense seems to play to their full potential unless they’re playing the Eagles. I wanted to take Tampa Bay here, but I have a funny feeling Atlanta finally gets their act back together.
J.Camm’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Rest of the Picks:
Cincinnati -7.5 over CLEVELAND
Bet you never expected Austin Davis to be starting a game Cleveland before this 2015 season started. I’m sure the Browns didn’t think it was going to happen either. Cleveland’s loss on Monday was so typical for the moribund franchise and now they have to come back from their hangover on a short week. Cincinnati is continually motivated by trying to finish with a first round bye in the playoffs and their #1 ranked offense according to Football Outsiders should have no issue putting up points against the Browns 29th ranked defense.
J.Camm’s Pick: Cincinnati
Baltimore +5.5 over MIAMI
Both these teams want their seasons to end, but at least Baltimore gives you their best every week. Miami’s performances over their last three games have been so embarrassing that they fired their offensive coordinator. It seems like the right move since he only gave 12 carries to Lamar Miller over the last 2 games. Just take the points and make sure you don’t want any of what’s going to be an utterly boring game.
J.Camm’s Pick: Baltimore
Seattle -0.5 over MINNESOTA
Is it possible Seattle has finally found their offensive legs? They have put up 29 or more points in their last three games. Minnesota has been getting no respect recently despite their record because of their analytical peripherals. (Say that five times fast.) When you’re 14th in offense and defense then you’re really a league average team who’s gotten some breaks. Maybe last year’s conference winner is getting hot at the right time and you need to back them.
J.Camm’s Pick: Seattle
Arizona -5.5 over ST. LOUIS
Arizona’s defense can be beaten by a team that can pass the football, but St. Louis is ranked last in passing offense according to Football Outsiders. That’s not going to get it done. The Rams defense also doesn’t look like the same unit it was to start the season. Maybe St. Louis plays their butts off because this is the last game they get up for all season, but I’m worried about them scoring more than 14 points.
J.Camm’s Pick: Arizona
CHICAGO -7.5 over San Francisco
The 49ers are solid at home, but this game is being played in Chicago. San Francisco has given up 43, 47, 30, 27, and 29 in their five road games this year. The Bears are going to have themselves a field day. I’m not sure how San Francisco keeps up offensively.
J.Camm’s Pick: Chicago
N.Y. Jets -2.5 over N.Y. GIANTS
I’m done touting my ability for picking Giants games after losing against the spread on the last two. The Giants should tee off on the Revis-less Jets, but the Jets defensive line should tee off on the Giants beaten-down offensive line as well. Plus are the Giants really going to stop the Jets from getting to 20 points? The Jets have been playing better at home this year and this is basically a home game, so they should come away with the victory.
J.Camm’s Pick: N.Y. Giants
TENNESSEE -2.5 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars barely beat Tennessee in Jacksonville. This game takes place in Nashville. Tennessee is a little healthier on offense while it looks as if Allen Hurns will miss the game for Jacksonville. We’re due for a Blake Bortles pick six to turn the tide here.
J.Camm’s Pick: Tennessee
Houston +3.5 over BUFFALO
Don’t look now, but the Texans are playing some pretty good football. I guess Bill O’Brien isn’t going to lose his job just yet. It all starts with the defense obviously as the Texans are now up to being ranked the 9th best defense in the league according to Football Outsiders. Buffalo has been a solid team, but their defense just hasn’t been good enough and now Kyle Williams is officially out for the year.
J.Camm’s Pick: Houston
OAKLAND + 3.5 over Kansas City
I really want to be all over this Chiefs bandwagon, but I turned back over to take the home team in this one. Oakland got their passing game going last week and should be able to do enough to keep this within a field goal.
J.Camm’s Pick: Oakland
Carolina -7.5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Panthers seem unstoppable against the spread right now. I’ll let you pick against them. New Orleans lost their last two games by scoring a total of 20 points in those games, but both of them were on the road. Maybe they show up here? Maybe they don’t? You know who is showing up? Cam Newton! That’s who!
J.Camm’s Pick: Carolina
Dallas +4.5 over WASHINGTON
The loss of Matt Cassel is huge, but Dallas still has their offensive line and they still have an alright defense. The interceptions killed Dallas last week and it may be too much to ask Matt Cassel to not turn the ball over, but I’m thinking he’ll be ok.
J.Camm’s Pick: Washington
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 88-83-6
Locks: 23-14
JCamm: 86-85-6