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Oregon coach Dan Lanning, LSU QB Sam Leavitt, and Oklahoma coach Brent Venables
The 2026 college football season is almost underway, and some teams are getting too much hype while a few playoff hopefuls are flying under the radar. Each conference has favorites and underdogs, but who can you really trust going into the 2026 season?
These are the biggest dark horses and most overrated teams in every P4 conference heading into the 2026 college football season
Big Ten
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Dark Horse: UCLA
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The Bruins were one of the worst teams in football to begin their 2025 campaign. They started 0-4 with losses to UNLV and New Mexico but had a small midseason resurgence after DeShaun Foster was fired.
At the conclusion of the 2025 season, UCLA implemented my favorite strategy college teams use to rebuild: take a successful smaller school’s coaches and best players.
UCLA hired former James Madison head coach Bob Chesney, who brought the Dukes to their first-ever playoff appearance last year. Chesney takes over and already has a QB1 in place with former 5-star Nico Iamaleava.
Iamaleava has left a lot to be desired thus far, but he brings a lot of raw talent and experience. JMU’s sack leader last season, redshirt sophomore Sahir West, is someone whose physical traits should make the transition to power conference football easy.
With an over-under win total set at 6.5, I think the Bruins climb over that and are a true dark horse for the playoff.
Fraud: Oregon
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Dan Lanning has done a great job at bringing Oregon back to the national spotlight over the course of his tenure, but he has failed in the big moments too many times.
To say the Ducks have underperformed in the playoffs would be maybe the understatement of the century. We have all tried to erase the 2024 Rose Bowl from our memory, but it did happen. The Ducks were down 34-0 in the blink of an eye and disgraced a once-sacred bowl game.
They got a chance at redemption last year in the playoffs, and Indiana handed them an even worse 56-22 beatdown. The first play of the game was a Dante Moore pick-six, as he missed inside on an out route and the rest was history. The Ducks might have a nice record and win a big regular-season game, but when late rounds roll around, I do not want Lanning or Moore in my corner.
SEC
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Dark Horse: Oklahoma
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How is a preseason top-10 team a dark horse?
First of all, they are the 5th highest-ranked SEC team, so they are by no means favorites to win the conference. Secondly, I think they are national championship dark horses. The defense will be elite again, and when quarterback John Mateer was healthy last year, he was the Heisman favorite.
Brent Venables has completely changed OU’s identity from an air-raiding offensive juggernaut to a tough-nosed defensive team that is built to survive in the SEC. The Sooners lost a home playoff game to Alabama to conclude their 2025 campaign after being up 17-0, but I think that will motivate the strong class of returning starters and potentially push them to a deep playoff run.
Fraud: LSU
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Arguably the most talked-about team in all of college football this offseason, LSU brought in Lane Kiffin, who historically wins big games.
Oh wait. Sorry. I meant to say Lane Kiffin holds a mere 5-16 record vs Top 10 teams as a head coach.
Kiffin is a culture changer, not a conference winner. He has no problem making headlines and bringing in top recruits but struggles to win important games against real competition. One could argue he has never had the roster to compete with the elite teams, but in Ole Miss’ first game without him, they beat #3 Georgia.
LSU will win the games they are supposed to and have a few highlight plays along the way, but they will not make any real noise.
Big 12
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Dark Horse: Oklahoma State
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This would be a great year for Bedlam, but regardless, the Cowboys are on here for the same reason as UCLA.
Pillaging North Texas’ head coach, quarterback, and running back sets them up for an exciting 12-game schedule in a conference not known for its defense. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is a legit NFL-style player who can make any throw, and he does not have to learn a new offense in his first year in a power conference.
The Big 12 has not had either of its teams return to the conference championship game in six seasons, and if the parity continues, I think Oklahoma State is due to make an appearance.
Fraud: Texas Tech
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If you are reading this, you have scored as many touchdowns in the college football playoff as Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are spending roughly $30 million annually on their football roster, and to be fair, it has made them better. Their defense is legit, and they were able to win a lot of close games last year to end up 13-0 and Big 12 Champions.
When they were finally tested against Oregon, they failed to score a single point. They enter the season as the highest-ranked Big 12 school, but I don’t think enough changes were made offensively to expect a different result when matched up against real competition.
Tech wanted former Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, but this offseason he was busted for placing bets on his own teams under totals while he was a backup at Indiana. Overall, Texas Tech was not all that great last year, and the big changes that needed to be made fell through, which sets them up for a potentially disappointing 2026 campaign.
ACC
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Dark Horse: Virginia Tech
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After starting the season 3-3, Penn State fired James Franklin despite winning 10 games in each of his previous three seasons. In fairness, “Big Game James” had struggled to win big games, but I think he is a great fit to quickly turn around his alma mater.
The Hokies have a top-30 transfer and recruitment class, which includes a handful of Penn State players/recruits. Most notably, quarterback Ethan Grunkmeyer is following his former coach to Blacksburg, and I think that says a lot about Franklin. The great leader of men and motivator will be plenty motivated himself to prove why that firing was a mistake.
I think Penn State learns that the grass is not always greener and Franklin takes the Hokies to new heights in a wide-open conference. The school with the best entrance in the sport is due to come alive again and I think this could be the year.
Fraud: SMU
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Full disclosure: I am a TCU graduate, so I am slightly biased, but I also watched Kelvin Jennings play in person and it is nothing to write home about.
The quarterback situation is the main reason they fall into the fraud tier. Jennings does not protect himself or the football and while the peaks are great, the valleys are not worth it (he is currently rehabbing a jammed finger on his throwing hand, which he injured in a locker room door on August 7th).
In fairness, I think Rhett Lashlee is an underrated coach who has absolutely run wild with the Mustangs and made the playoffs in their first season in the ACC. But as long as Jennings is under center, I simply don’t see a path to success.