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**Editor’s Note: Kevin Dudzinki is ranked in the top 5% of all DFS players, according to Rotogrinders.com, and has made a killing on fantasy since he started in 2013. Learn more about Kev HERE and follow him on Twitter HERE.***
After a week hiatus from winning bets, Dustin Johnson nuked the entire field by 11 strokes, and rang the bell for us AGAIN, cashing in our 22-1 bet at the Northern Trust Open.
The insane run continues, as we come down the stretch of the PGA Tour season. Some stats on my picks this year:
- Picked the winner 6 of the last 8 weeks
- Picked the winner 7 of 11 weeks since the PGA tour returned
- $100 bets a week since the PGA tour returned in June would have you up $1,621
- $100 bets a week since the season began in 2020 would have you up $2,642
Bananas. Let’s see if we can keep making it rain this week.
We head to the Olympia Country Club this week, for the BMW Championship. The tour hasn’t had an event here since the early 2000’s so there’s not a ton of information out there on the course. Listening to some quotes by the players after playing practice rounds, it sounds like the rough will be thick, and the course will play tough. Doesn’t seem like a birdie fest this week.
There is no cut this week, so all players are getting four rounds. When that’s the case, I don’t like to have too much invested in long shots, as the cream usually rises to the top when everyone is guaranteed four rounds.
Let’s have a look at who we are going to be rooting for to bring home some cash for us this week.
Below is a refresher on how I am allocating my bets this week, and who I like to take down the BMW Championship.
As far as betting, I’ll keep track of the overall performance for the year each week. The important thing to understand is that betting on golf is hard. Most weeks we are going to lose, but one winning week, can make up for multiple losing weeks. I’m taking a long term approach, and hoping to finish the season up. As you will see, we are going to spread our money out to multiple players, and hopefully grind out a profit.
Each week, I am going to put one unit in play. That unit is going to be divided up between all the players I want to bet on. This unit can be whatever you feel comfortable losing in a week, but should remain consistent throughout the season. If you move the amount all over the place each week, your chances of profiting decrease quite a bit. With that being said, let’s take a look at who I’m targeting to take down this event.
Now we’ll take a look at players I have the most interest in using on DraftKings in their tournaments. In these articles, I am going to pick two players that I am the most interested in using, from three different tiers. $9,000 and up, $7500-$8900, and under $7500.
A smaller field without a cut, means we can feel more confident in lower priced guys, as they are guaranteed to score points for us all four rounds.
Let’s take a look at who we should be building our DK lineups around this week
$9,000+
Justin Thomas $10,800
As is usually the case, Thomas ranks first in my model. He’s got great current form, and is elite in almost every category I am looking at for this course. JT has missed one cut since the tour returned, he’s a safe pick with big time upside to win the tournament.
Daniel Berger $9,700
Berger has been one of the most consistent golfers on tour since the tour returned, and this week should be no different. His current form has him as the second best birdie maker in the field recently, which should provide us with the upside we need at his price.
$7500-$8900
Hideki Matsuyama $8,500
A middling price for one of the elite ball strikers on tour, Matsuyama ranks 6th in my model this week. If we can just get the one week that he figures out how to putt for a few rounds, Matsuyama has the potential to win this tournament outright.
Adam Scott $8,200
Scott ranks 9th in my model, and I think that he is strictly priced this low because he hasn’t played that much since the tour returned. An elite ball striker, who has improved his putting somewhat through the years, Scott shows up in big events often. He could be a sneaky play to move up the leaderboard.
Under $7500
Ryan Palmer $7,500
Palmer has been on a roll recently, and we are going to ride him again this week. He finished 8th last week, and finished 2nd at the Memorial a few weeks ago. He’s hot, and his long terms stats are very good. Palmer should be a good value play this week.
Brendan Steele $6,600
This weeks cheap play is going to be Brendan Steele. Ranking 22nd in my model, he’s one of the cheapest golfers in the field. He probably doesn’t have the upside to win this tournament but at his price, he could pay off and get you the studs you need. He’s improved his birdie making ability recently, and there are no stats I am looking at that he could be considered “poor”. He’s my cheap play of the week.
Good luck this week, and see you at the top of the leaderboards!