When Will Each Top 25 Team Lose First? A Quick Look At Every Ranked Team’s Toughest Early Tests

The preseason Top 25 has been released by the Associated Press. It means we’re one step closer to the start of the 2026 college football season.

The rankings give us a baseline of what to expect in the coming year, though nothing is ever predictable. Many of these teams will suffer losses before the first month of the season is complete.

Some will be unexpected. Others will be less surprising. Here, we’ll look to identify the most obvious spot for that first ‘L’ on each team’s schedule.

When will each Top 25 college football team lose first?

This, obviously, is not a perfect science. We’re not completely sure what these 25 teams, or their opponents, will look like come kickoff. Things change from week to week. Injuries happen. So do letdowns. Anything can happen on any given Saturday!

Furthermore, a large majority of college football fans dub preseason polls meaningless. They are talking points used to drum up the last bit of excitement and controversy before the fall.

With that said, I’ll do my best to make some predictions based on the early season slates. When will these teams lose, an at whose hands?

Let’s start with No. 25 and work our way down.

25. Missouri Tigers

The Tigers will have a season opening matchup with Arkansas Pine-Bluff on September 5th. That should be a win. Things ramp up a notch in Week 2.

Missouri will travel to Kansas for a rivalry matchup with the Jayhawks. That game was won by Mizzou 42-31 last year in Columbia.

Kansas is projected to win 6.5 games this year, same as the Tigers. It should be a competitive game in Lawrence with revenge on the mind. If Mizzou is able to get by the Jayhawks on the road, they’ll face another potential hiccup in Starkville vs. Mississippi State before September closes.

24. Louisville Cardinals

Louisville enters the year as a dark horse to win the ACC. They could be staring 0-1 in the face with a season opening matchup vs. Ole Miss.

The Rebels made the College Football Playoff last year and return notable talent to include quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. At this point in time, Ole Miss is favored by a touchdown.

September doesn’t get any easier as the Cardinals host No. 19 SMU in Week 3. There’s an opportunity for multiple losses before the start of October.

23. Houston Cougars

Houston hosts Oregon State in Week 1, and while the Beavers are a former P4 program with spurts of success, we’ll give the nod to the Cougars in the opener.

The first true test will come two weeks later in Lubbock. Houston will travel to face Texas Tech in its Big 12 debut. They’ll likely be a two-score underdog.

The Red Raiders are the conference favorite and currently sit at No. 12 in the AP Poll. If Houston can survive, the schedule sets up nicely for a run.

22. Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa will have a similar early season setup to years past. A rivalry game with Iowa State is sandwiched between two non-conference G5 contests. And as always, the Cyclones will be the first early test.

Iowa State has won three of the last four CyHawk matchups, including each of the last two meetings. Last year, the Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes by a field goal at home. The rivalry returns to Iowa City this time around.

That should help the Hawkeyes chances, as does the rebuild occurring on the other sidelines following the departure of head coach Matt Campbell.

Still, this game has a history of being close. The largest margin of victory since 2017 is 10 points, with five games decided by a field goal or less. Should Iowa end its series losing streak, Michigan awaits at the end of September.

21. Utah Utes

The Utes will not face a ranked opponent until October 24th, at least according to the current AP Top 25. That does not mean they can’t drop a game.

Utah’s season starts with an interesting test in Week 2 against Arkansas. The Razorbacks will be looking to get the Ryan Silverfield era off to a quick start.

While I’d expect the Utes to win at home, it’s not a guarantee. A month-ending matchup at Iowa State is also intriguing, though Utah should be favored in each of its first eight contests.

20. Tennessee Vols

The Vols will travel to Georgia Tech in a Week 2 matchup that provides an opportunity for a first loss. The Yellow Jackets went 9-3 last year to just miss out on the ACC title game.

With that said, they will be replacing starting QB Haynes King and a slew of offensive performers. Tennessee will be favored to win the game.

That will not be the case two weeks later when the Vols host No. 5 Texas in Knoxville. It seems unlikely Tennessee escapes September without at least one setback.

19. SMU Mustangs

SMU is another dark horse ACC title contender with something to prove in 2026. The Mustangs made the College Football Playoff in 2024. They took a step back last season. Can they rebound?

They’ll get an immediate test in Week 1 with a season opening matchup vs. Florida State. The road gets more difficult a few weeks later versus Louisville. Both games are on the road. They may not get out of September unscathed.

If they do succeed, though, the schedule sets up for a deep run as they play just one ranked team over the final nine games of the year.

18. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State will look much different in 2026. Matt Campbell replaces James Franklin. He brings with him talent from his last stop, Iowa State. Campbell has the luxury of easing into his debut season.

The Nittany Lions will not play a ranked team until October 10th. They should be notable favorites in their first five contests. I’ll go on record predicting a spotless 4-0 September.

They’ll start with Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo before kicking off Big 10 play. The conference slate begins with potential cellar dwellers Wisconsin and Northwestern.

I don’t see Penn State losing until Week 6 vs. USC.

17. Washington Huskies

Washington feels good about its team after bringing starting quarterback Demond Williams back into the fold. They’ll start the year just outside the Top 15 and expect to compete in the Big 10.

The Huskies will have the luxury of a light September path, though there are a few potential speedbumps. Most notably, the season starts with rival Washington State. While the Huskies are favored by three touchdowns, rivalries are often unpredictable.

Minnesota will be the first Big 10 test, though Washington might not suffer a first loss until an October matchup vs. USC.

16. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is under new leadership in 2026 following the exit of Sherrone Moore. Kyle Whittingham comes in from Utah where he was extremely successful. He gets his first taste of the Big 10.

The Wolverines will be tested early in Whittingham’s debut. A Week 2 matchup with Oklahoma represents the first opportunity for a loss. A second September setback could come two weeks later vs. Iowa.

This season will be no cakewalk for Michigan as it faces six ranked teams, four of which are in the Top 10. We’ll see if the Wolverines can pull an upset or two.

15. USC Trojans

USC is expected to compete for a conference title in the Big 10 this season, and they have a Top 15 ranking that reflects it. At this point in time, the projected win total sits at around nine games.

The Trojans should pick up four quick ones in the month of September. They will not be tested by non-conference foes San Jose State, Fresno State, or Louisiana. They should be favored over Rutgers in the Big 10 opener.

That’s where the fun stops. USC opens October with No. 2 Oregon. They’ll have a chance to pull the upset at home, but it is undoubtedly the earliest realistic chance at a first loss.

14. BYU Cougars

BYU made the Big 12 championship game in 2025, where it lost to Texas Tech. It looks to change that result in 2026. The Cougars return a boatload of production. They should find themselves back in the College Football Playoff hunt this year.

The schedule sets up pretty nicely for the program, which won’t face a ranked team until mid-October. There is, however, a chance the first loss comes prior.

BYU will travel to Texas for a matchup with TCU in late September. The Horned Frogs just missed out on the Top 25, finishing 30th in the overall voting.

It will be a test for the Cougars, though one that they can certainly win. A matchup with Iowa State follows before a game with Notre Dame.

13. Alabama Crimson Tide

On paper, Alabama has a relatively easy start to the season. The Crimson Tide won’t face a ranked foe until Georgia in Game 6. That starts a string of four consecutive Top 25 matchups.

Digging deeper, though, September is treacherous. A loss or two could derail the season.

SEC play starts at Kentucky in Week 2. We’ll give the Tide a win there with the Wildcats breaking in a new coach. That’s followed by a rematch with Florida State, the team that handed Alabama its first loss last season.

September ends with South Carolina, a group the Tide have need miracles to beat in each of the last two years. If the ball doesn’t bounce the right way, Alabama may suffer its first defeat earlier than expected.

12. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech is the Big 12 favorite and could find itself back in the College Football Playoff this postseason. There are some early tests for the Red Raiders that could blemish the resume.

TTU should get off to a 2-0 start in non-conference play although a trip to Corvallis, Oregon is potentially tricky. The first real opportunity for a loss, though, comes in Week 3 vs. Houston.

The Cougars are ranked No. 23 in the AP Poll and will be hungry to avenge a three-score loss from 2025. If Texas Tech gets by unscathed, an undefeated season is on the table. The Red Raiders won’t face another preseason Top 25 team the remainder of the season.

11. LSU Tigers

LSU is entering the Lane Kiffin era, and it will get off to an immediate bang. The Tigers host Clemson in Baton Rouge on Week 1. It will represent a rematch of the ’25 edition.

LSU won last year’s Top 10 battle by a touchdown. Neither team lived up to the lofty ranking the rest of the way, with both finishing at 7-6.

Clemson is not ranked in this year’s poll, but they will provide a test. The road won’t get any easier as September continues with Florida and October opens with Ole Miss.

10. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma is a trendy pick to make a run in the SEC this year. Starting QB John Mateer is back. The defense should be stout. The Sooners can certainly make it back to the College Football Playoff.

With that said, the road is difficult. Oklahoma is tested early and often. That starts with a Week 2 matchup vs. No. 16. Michigan. September closes with No. 3 Georgia, followed immediately by the Red River Rivalry. None of those games will be at home.

If the Sooners aren’t careful, they could be 2-3 by mid-October. They’ll hope to stay on track and pick up a few statement wins.

9. Ole Miss Rebels

The Rebels will look similar to last year’s College Football Playoff team despite a change at the helm. Lane Kiffin is out. Pete Golding is in. The new regime was able to keep much of the returning talent in Oxford.

Ole Miss was a play away from the national championship game a year ago. They hope to make a repeat appearance in the postseason tournament this fall. They’ll have to navigate a tough September in order to do so.

Ole Miss opens with No. 24 Louisville, a team that could easily pull the upset. A matchup with LSU in SEC play follows two weeks later before a trip to The Swamp. The season could come unglued early with a season opening setback.

8. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M will look to get back to the College Football Playoff after going 11-1 last season. They’ll start the 2026 season off with three matchups vs. P4 competition in the month of September.

The Aggies will play Arizona State in Week 2, a game they’re currently favored to win by 14 points. They’ll then open SEC play with Kentucky.

I’ll give TAMU the benefit of the doubt in their first three games. I think they’ll be 3-1 after a trip to LSU.

7. Miami Hurricanes

Miami is not the defending ACC champion, but it did represent the conference in the College Football Playoff last year on a run to the national title game. The ‘Canes hope to earn some hardware this year.

They are the conference favorites and should get off to a strong start. Miami will be three-score favorites in each of its first four contests.

The month of October, however, begins with a tricky trip to Clemson. The Tigers are not the contender they once were, but Dabo Swinney thrives in an underdog role. He might just send Miami back to South Florida with a loss.

6. Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana is ranked outside the Top 5 despite winning the national championship. The Hoosiers do lose production from last year’s team, but they expect to reload.

In all likelihood, Indiana will be 6-0 through mid-October. They don’t face anyone with a pulse outside of Big 10 play. Their first three league games come against Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska.

The first real chance at a setback is probably Ohio State in Game 7. A loss could present issues as the back half of the season is absolutely brutal. After facing the Buckeyes, Indiana will see ranked matchups vs. Michigan, USC, and Washington. There is potential for a snowball.

5. Texas Longhorns

Texas starts inside the Top 5 as a national title contender and favorite in the Southeastern Conference. The Longhorns will find out what they’re made of quickly.

After a season opening matchup with Texas State, the Longhorns host top-ranked Ohio State. The Buckeyes got the best of Texas last year, 14-7.

Ohio State will be the first of many early season tests for Arch Manning and Co. Texas will end September vs. Tennessee before October matchups against Florida, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame, in all likelihood, will be undefeated come October. The Fighting Irish will not face a ranked team until Game 7. Their first six opponents combined to go 23-50 last year. None had a winning record.

The Irish will be favored heavily in each of those matchups. They’ll get their first true test in mid-October vs. BYU on the road.

The back half of the schedule is much more challenging than the front. Miami and SMU await Notre Dame in November. Still, the chances that first loss comes before the seventh game are slim.

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia is one of two teams, alongside Texas, consistently being picked to play in the SEC Championship Game. It is also the most highly rated league member at No. 3.

The Bulldogs are considered the best team in the conference. That does not mean they won’t be tested.

A tricky road trip to Arkansas in Week 3 could pose an issue, but I’m looking at the Week 4 matchup vs. Oklahoma as the Bulldogs’ first potential loss.

2. Oregon Ducks

Oregon brings back a slew of talent headlined by potential No. 1 overall pick Dante Moore. The Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for a championship run, at least on paper.

The first three games should be wins, though a season opener vs. Boise State won’t necessarily be easy. I’m pinpointing a massive Week 4 matchup vs. USC as the first potential loss.

The Trojans have dropped the last four games in the series. They’ll be looking for revenge after a 42-27 loss last year. Should Oregon slip by USC, they wouldn’t face another ranked team until Ohio State in early November.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the preseason Top 25. That ranking does not protect the Buckeyes from potential danger early in the season.

Things kick off almost immediately with a Top 5 showdown against Texas in Week 2. Ohio State could very well be 1-1 when all is said and done.

Should they slide past the Longhorns for a second straight year, the tests continue into October. Ohio State faces four ranked teams in a five-game stretch before the season finale with Michigan a few weeks later.