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ESPN logo on phone over question marks
ESPN released its 2026 preseason All-America team Thursday, which means college football fans can officially begin arguing about which stars were disrespected before anyone has played a meaningful snap. ESPN also included a much funnier warning label this year while admitting it doesn’t have the best track record on that front.
The college football preseason prediction business has always required confidence that will look completely unreasonable by Thanksgiving, but a 7-for-26 hit rate is especially aggressive. That means 19 players, or roughly 73% of last year’s first-team selections, did not finish the season where ESPN projected them.
ESPN Basically Published Its Own Receipt
The 2026 team includes Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy and another collection of stars who look like obvious choices in August.
That is exactly how last year’s group looked too.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik entered 2025 as ESPN’s first-team quarterback. Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton made the list. Alabama receiver Ryan Williams, Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods and Texas linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. were all supposed to be among the sport’s safest superstar bets.
Then college football happened.
Injuries happened. Breakouts happened. Teams disappointed. Players developed differently than expected. Somebody nobody seriously discussed in August eventually became impossible to leave off a postseason team.
By January, only seven of ESPN’s original 26 first-team selections had survived onto its final team.
A 27% success rate would get a quarterback benched, a baseball hitter sent to Triple-A and a weather app deleted from your phone. In preseason college football analysis, it is apparently a useful reminder to check back in four months.
The turnover even shows up among proven stars. ESPN noted that only three players from its 2025 postseason first team returned to this preseason roster: Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore, Indiana tackle Carter Smith and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith. Apparently even being right in January does not guarantee you remain the obvious answer in August.
The Transfer Portal Makes August Predictions Even More Dangerous
The sport has never been especially predictable, but the modern roster cycle has made the exercise even harder.
Players transfer after breakout seasons. New quarterbacks arrive with different coordinators. NIL money helps programs rebuild entire position groups in one winter. Freshmen who were supposed to develop quietly become immediate stars, while established names can lose roles almost as quickly.
ESPN’s own February early team already looked different from the final preseason version. Arch Manning was the February quarterback selection, but Sayin owns the spot in August.
That is six months of movement before the season even begins.
This does not make preseason All-America teams useless. They are supposed to identify the best players entering the year, not magically predict every injury, breakout and midseason plot twist.
It does make them hilarious when treated like certainty.
Fans spend August getting furious because their favorite linebacker was placed on the second team instead of the first. Four months later, there is a decent chance neither player is anywhere near the final list.
ESPN deserves credit for putting the number right at the top of this year’s story instead of pretending last August’s predictions were carved into stone tablets.
Seven of 26 survived.
The rest became a reminder that preseason consensus has roughly the shelf life of an open container of guacamole.
Enjoy the lists.
Maybe do not laminate them.