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The Los Angeles Dodgers have advanced to the World Series after entering the playoffs as the top seed, winning Game 1. The Dodgers eliminated the Atlanta Braves in Game 7 of the NLCS and will face the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays, the top seed in the American League, beat the Astros in Game 7 of the ALCS to punch their World Series ticket. Two of MLB’s deepest teams square off in a best of 7 World Series.
Let’s see how these clubs match-up.
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World Series Schedule
Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas (ET)
Game 2: Oct. 21, 8:08 P.M.
Game 3: Oct. 23, 8:08 P.M.
Game 4: Oct. 24, 8:08 P.M.
Game 5: Oct. 25, 8:08 P.M.
Game 6: Oct. 27, 8:08 P.M.
Game 7: Oct. 28, 8:09 P.M.
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Hitting
The Dodgers certainly have the lineup advantage in this series. Corey Seager has been their top bat this postseason, leading the team with a 1.124 OPS. The Dodgers lineup depth one through nine has given their opponents trouble. The Rays staff will have their hands full with Bellinger, Joc, Muncy, Betts & the rest of the Dodgers lineup.
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The Rays bats have struggled this postseason and have been held to a .209 team batting average. Randy Arozarena is simply red hot and has put the Rays offense on his back. Arozarena enters the World Series hitting .382 with a 1.288 OPS (On Base + SLG) and 7 home runs. The Dodgers might want to consider pitching around Arozarena, as the rest of the Rays offense picked a bad time to struggle. The Rays offense needs Brandon Lowe, Diaz, Adames & Brosseau to snap out of their funk and contribute.
| Regular Season Hitting (MLB RANK) | ||
| Dodgers | Rays | |
| Batting Avg | .256 (11th) | .238 (21st) |
| On Base % | .338 (5th) | .328 (11th) |
| Slugging % | .483 (1st) | .425 (15th) |
| HR | 118 (1st) | 80 (14th) |
| SB/CS | 29/8 | 48/9 |
| AB per HR | 17.30 (1st) | 24.69 (12th) |
| Postseason Hitting | ||
| Batting Avg | 0.283 | 0.209 |
| On Base % | 0.355 | 0.295 |
| Slugging % | 0.456 | 0.407 |
| HR | 18 | 25 |
| SB/CS | 5/0 | 2/2 |
| AB per HR | 22.17 | 17.8 |
Advantage: Dodgers
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Pitching
| Regular Season Pitching (MLB RANK) | ||
| Dodgers | Rays | |
| ERA | 3.02 (1st) | 3.56 (3rd) |
| Batting Avg Against | .213 (1st) | .238 (12th) |
| WHIP | 1.06 (1st) | 1.22 (6th) |
| K/BB | 3.57 (2nd) | 3.29 (4th) |
| HR Allowed | 66 (2nd) | 70 (10th) |
| FIP | 3.79 (2nd) | 3.94 (7th) |
| Postseason Pitching | ||
| Dodgers (12 Games) | Rays (14 Games) | |
| ERA | 3.36 | 3.36 |
| Batting Avg Against | 0.218 | 0.234 |
| WHIP | 1.20 | 1.34 |
| K/BB | 3 | 2.38 |
| HR Allowed | 12 | 21 |
| FIP | 3.58 | 4.77 |
| Postseason Rotation | ||
| Dodgers | Rays | |
| ERA | 3.33 | 3.30 |
| Batting Avg Against | 0.217 | 0.220 |
| WHIP | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| K/BB | |
71/28 |
| HR Allowed | 7 | 14 |
| FIP | 3.62 | 5.28 |
Los Angeles’ pitching staff has been led by Walker Buehler & Clayton Kershaw this postseason, as the two have combined to pitch 38 innings (team leading 19 innings each). Kershaw has battled back spasms but still has a respectable 3.32 ERA & 3.14 FIP during this playoff run. Buehler’s pitching with blisters, which has led to an increased number of walks but he’s still pitching to a 1.89 ERA & 3.24 FIP.
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Tampa’s rotation has been led by Charlie Morton this postseason. Morton has a 0.57 ERA & 1.94 FIP across 15.2 postseason innings. Morton has struck out 15 hitters and has yet to allow a postseason HR. Opposing hitters have a .190 batting average against Morton. The Rays starters haven’t been pitching deep into the games. Their closer, Nick Anderson, has regularly been pitching the middle innings of postseason games. He’s 4th on the Rays in innings pitched with 11.2. Anderson has a 4.63 ERA & 5.24 FIP
Advantage: Dodgers
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Bullpen
| Postseason Bullpen | ||
| Dodgers | Rays | |
| ERA | 3.40 | 3.41 |
| Batting Avg Against | 0.218 | 0.266 |
| WHIP | 1.15 | 1.43 |
| K/BB | |
55/25 |
| HR Allowed | 5 | 7 |
| FIP | 3.55 | 4.27 |
These are two of the most talented bullpens in all of baseball and both feature a stable of 100 MPH throwing arms. These two managers won’t hesitate to rely on a bullpen arm to bail them out of trouble.
Advantage: Dodgers
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Projections
| Team | Starter | xWin | xLine | Implied Probability | |
| Game 1 | TB | Tyler Glasnow | 36.20% | 176 | 63.77% |
| LAD | Clayton Kershaw | 63.80% | -176 | ||
| Game 2 | TB | Blake Snell | 40.20% | 149 | |
| LAD | Dustin May | 59.80% | -149 | 59.82% | |
| Game 3 | LAD | Walker Buehler | 60.00% | -150 | 60% |
| TB | Charlie Morton | 40.00% | 150 | ||
| Game 4 | LAD | Julio Urias | 49.30% | 103 | |
| TB | Ryan Yarbrough | 50.70% | -103 | 50.74% | |
| Game 5 | LAD | Clayton Kershaw | 57.60% | -136 | 57.63% |
| TB | Tyler Glasnow | 42.40% | 136 | ||
| Game 6 | TB | Blake Snell | 40.20% | 149 | |
| LAD | Dustin May | 59.80% | -149 | 59.82% | |
| Game 7 | TB | Charlie Morton | 33.80% | 196 | |
| LAD | Walker Buehler | 66.20% | -196 | 66.22% |
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