iStockphoto
The Pittsburgh Pirates own the rights to the No. 1 pick in Sunday’s draft, and they’ve remained tight-lipped about who they’ll target. Recent reports, however, have led to a drastic shift in MLB Draft odds.
Many are hinting that the penny-pinching organization isn’t eager to pay top dollar for the first choice. That news has led to a long shot skyrocketing at the sportsbooks.
At college baseball season’s end, the overwhelming belief was that one of two LSU superstars would be taken off the board first. Those players, outfielder Dylan Crews and starting pitcher Paul Skenes, put together monster seasons in Baton Rouge.
Crews hit .426 in the Tigers’ national championship winning campaign while Skenes went 12-2 and struck out a program record 209 batters.
Earlier this week, Vegas pegged those two players as the favorites to land in the Steel City.
Who will the Pittsburgh Pirates take with the top pick in the 2023 MLB Draft?
LSU right-hander Paul Skenes is projected to be that man but several others, including LSU teammate Dylan Crews, are in the running to make the jump. pic.twitter.com/fZJ1D2gzZZ
— Covers (@Covers) July 5, 2023
As draft day approaches, though, those odds are shifting.
This comes following reports that the Pirates are being stingy with that No. 1 overall selection. According to Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, Pittsburgh is looking at a few different options as potential top picks.
And one major consideration is the signing bonus price.
The Pirates are shopping a below-slot number to four players for the No. 1 pick, according to multiple industry officials: Wyatt Langford, Paul Skenes, Max Clark and Walker Jenkins.
How it works:
MLB teams are given a predetermined bonus pool to use on draft picks. Picks are then slotted based on value, with the top pick having the highest price.
Teams can choose to match those slot values at their own discretion.
The Pirates are apparently looking to save money on the first pick, which can then be used for other players later in the draft. This strategy is not surprising, particularly to Pirates fans, who’ve grown all too familiar with management’s money-saving tactics.
Making things worse, it’s been said that Dylan Crews and his agent are asking for the largest signing bonus in MLB history.
The highest bonus price ever paid came in the 2020 draft when the Tigers signed Spencer Torkelson for $8.416 million. The Pirates’ current slot value is priced just north of $9.7 million.
Crews is rumored to want $10 million.
Dylan Crews is apparently rumored to want $10 million dollars.
If the Pirates do not select him, he could fall to Detroit and their slot value is around $8.3 million
Boras might cost Crews millions they way he is handling this situation
— Kody Duncan (@KodyDuncanPGH) July 7, 2023
If the Pirates aren’t willing to match slot value for Crews (or Skenes), they could end up signing another player for less money. This, in turn, would allow them to save some of their $16 million bonus pool.
We saw this strategy the last time Pittsburgh held the first pick as they signed catcher Henry Davis, a player not considered to be the best in the draft, for $6.5 million, well below the No. 1 slot value.
With some believing the Pirates will do the same in 2023, we’ve seen a major shift in MLB Draft odds.
MLB Draft odds shift drastically due to Pirates’ strategy.
Though Crews and Skenes are considered the most talented players in the draft, another potential target is gaining steam at the sportsbooks.
Florida’s Wyatt Langford has become the favorite to be selected with the No. 1 pick. Previously, he’d held odds from anywhere between +800 and +1200 at most books. That, compared to Crews’ +150 and Skenes’ -175.
So it’s every draft that has some shenanigans with the top pick odds, huh? #MLBDraft seeing some movement.
Paul Skenes was -175 to go first on July 4 and Wyatt Langford was +800
Langford is now the favorite at +100 to go first, Skenes is +250 at DK.
— Jonathan Von Tobel (@meJVT) July 9, 2023
Langford is no scrub. With the Gators, he hit .373 while smacking 21 home runs. This coming a year after hitting 26 bombs as a sophomore.
Still, he ranks behind both Skenes and Crews as an MLB prospect.
Many have been quick to comment on the movement as they post reactions online.
One fan wrote, “The Pirates have the outline of a decent team. Both Skenes and Crews are MLB ready. There is zero reason for them to go cheap here. And Langford is going cheap.”
Another said, “The Pirates philosophy in a nutshell: Never take the best player available because he will cost too much.”
This follower posted, “Dylan Crews dropping because he wants money would be the stupidest thing. He’s the best player, just pay him.”
It will be interesting to see how much more the MLB Draft odds move up until the selection process starts. Those that got on Wyatt Langford early might receive a substantial payout.