Last week was the first week I failed to pick more than 50 percent of the games correct, so I sent my self to bed early every night this week without dinner. That’s what Roger Goodell would’ve wanted me to do. (Obviously I didn’t do this because, as my friends know, I like dinner too much.) Thankfully the Thursday night game gives us only a two night break before more football is on the platter. This has the makings to be the best Thursday night game yet, but will it deliver?
Survivor Pick of the Week:
DALLAS over Washington
Generally you look to stay away from a rivalry game, but you throw that out the window when Colt McCoy is involved. Dallas has surprised us all with their dominant efforts so far this season and there’s no reason that should change this weekend. Washington’s rush defense is the 8th best in the league according to football outsiders, but Seattle’s in second and we remember what Dallas did to them. We’ll believe someone can stop the Cowboys’ rushing attack when we see it and Dallas can easily go to the air this weekend if they want to.
Outside of Big D, you may fancy the Browns as a nice bounce back candidate this weekend. They move from a loss against one of the worst teams in the NFL to the worst team in the NFL. The Raiders haven’t won a game yet and it shouldn’t change this weekend as the Browns look to get back going at home. New England should dispatch of Chicago given that both teams are moving in opposite directions, but that Bears’ offense might be too powerful for you to bet against. Kansas City is coming off the high of beating San Diego, so maybe they’ll be a little flat at home against St. Louis.
Teams already used: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, San Diego, New Orleans, Seattle, and Baltimore
Thursday Night Pick:
DENVER -9.5 over San Diego
When this line started at 7.5 earlier in the week, I was looking at taking San Diego. They were motivated after a loss to Kansas City and generally play the Broncos tough. Then you look at things a little closer and realize the Chargers are missing their two starting quarterbacks. Peyton Manning is salivating at the thought of playing against the replacements. Denver likely won’t sink coming off last weekend’s big win against San Francisco despite Peyton getting his touchdown record because they’re going against one of their biggest rivals.
It doesn’t help San Diego’s case that Denver’s defense is vastly improved from last year. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware have been wreaking terror on opposing offenses this year. Denver’s #1 ranked pass defense and #4 ranked run defense show that they’ve taken giant strides to improve this side of the ball. Take a closer look at San Diego and realize that their best wins are against Seattle (maybe not as good as we thought) and Buffalo (a slightly better than average team). Their other wins are against Jacksonville, Oakland, and the N.Y. Jets, teams who have combined for two wins.
Despite my 7-0 record for Thursday night picks to start to the season, I don’t feel great about this one because we could be looking at a backdoor cover. But you could’ve said the same thing about last week’s game against San Francisco or Cardinals game three weeks ago and that didn’t happen. The Broncos are crushing on both sides of the ball this year and I’m not going to say it changes tonight.
Kyle’s Pick: San Diego with a classic backdoor
Last Week: 7-8
Season: 57-48-1
Survivor: 6-1
Locks: 11-11-1
Kyle: 57-48-1