The Saints are back atop the NFC South with a stellar (cough, cough) 4-4 record after their first road win of the season. Our Kyle Koster is debating whether or not he should bet his left mortgage on the Saints to win the NFC. New Orleans has an opportunity to make a big surge with five of their final eight games at home. Their road trips are to Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Tampa Bay, so they could easily win six games, get a home playoff game, and start the Super Bowl train rolling.
But let’s see what happens against the 49ers next week before the bandwagon gets going. The Saints are not the reason Cam Newton looked like a quarterback playing at Princeton last night. That was all on him.
Locks of the Week:
Philadelphia -1 over HOUSTON
The Eagles’ defense let them down last week when they gave up a long touchdown pass in the final minutes. They still almost won it at the final gun. Houston’s wins this year have been against lesser teams and they’re 0-3 when facing Dallas, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh, who are all teams above .500. Besides at some point all the stuff J.J. Watt is focusing on off the field has to catch up to him. Right? RIGHT?!?
Kyles pick: Philadelphia
Arizona +4 over DALLAS
No one wants to give Arizona any respect. They just keep winning. Now they get to face a banged up Tony Romo and their strength is stopping the run. Gimme the points.
Kyle’s pick: Dallas
SAN FRANCISCO -10 over St. Louis
The Rams just lost their only receiving weapon for the season in Brian Cook. They’re stupid enough to continue this rotation at running back instead of giving Tre Mason all the carries and letting Benny Cunningham handle passing back duties only. They’ve given up 31.8 points a game over the last five. This reeks of a blowout.
Kyle’s pick: San Francisco
Trap Games of the Week:
Jacksonville +11.5 over CINCINNATI
Jacksonville’s defense has improved in recent week, allowing an average of 13 points allowed in the last four games. (Remember that Blake Bortles threw two pick sixes last week or else Miami’s point scored would’ve been 14 points lower.) It helps their case that Cincinnati looks to be without Gio Bernard, who’s banged up with a couple different injuries. The Bengals’ defense has lost its way, especially against the run, so Denard Robinson should continue to see success as Jacksonville’s feature back, keeping the game closer than the line.
Kyle’s pick: Cincinnati
Rest of the Picks:
CLEVLEAND -6.5 over Tampa Bay
Just when you thought the Browns were falling apart enough for us to see John Football, they rebounded with a seemingly easy win last week against the Raiders. They get another cupcake situation this week (all a product of how bad they were last year, plus a schedule rotation that gives them the downtrodden NFC South) when the Buccaneers come to town. It’s somewhat hard to predict Tampa Bay’s performance given that they’ve been blown out twice in the last five weeks. This probably won’t be as bad, but it’ll be easy enough for Cleveland.
Kyle’s pick: Cleveland
MINNESOTA PK over Washington
We knew it was possible for RG3 to return without Washington’s fan base being that excited. We just expected it to be in favor of Kirk Cousins and not new darling Colt McCoy. This game has short week hangover written all over it with Washington coming off their big upset of Dallas on Monday night. Maybe Washington is benching McCoy because the PR guys can’t handle all the press attention he’s getting. With Minnesota’s offense putting up three offensive touchdowns in the last four games, expect this game to be ugly.
Kyle’s pick: Washington
KANSAS CITY -9 over N.Y. Jets
Michael Vick is not going to save the Jets’ season. He’s not the quarterback of the future. If the team is 1-7, why not just keep rolling out Geno Smith? At best, he gets better and you can play him next year. At worse he sucks and you get a better pick in the draft. I don’t get it. I guess the Jets don’t want to go down without a fight…
Kyle’s pick: Kansas City
MIAMI -1 over San Diego
The Dolphins are Football Outsiders’ fourth ranked defense, locking in top 10 spots against the run and the pass. San Diego’s defense is hurting badly with injuries to their secondary. This should allow Miami to recover from last week’s sluggish offensive effort and grab the home win.
Kyle’s pick: Miami
Denver -3 over NEW ENGLAND
The Broncos are a machine right now. The Patriots’ have lost two key defensive players recently in Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones. That’s the last thing you want when facing Peyton Manning. And all the focus is on Denver’s offense, but their defense has been great as well. They’re ranked third in defensive efficiency against the run and the pass according to Football Outsiders.
Kyle’s pick: Denver
SEATTLE -15 over Oakland
This is the game for the Seahawks to get their mojo back. Look for a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch as Seattle looks to get him going again. Oakland doesn’t have the weapons to take advantage of a vulnerable Seattle defense.
Kyle’s pick: Seattle
Baltimore PK over PITTSBURGH
We all know this is a blood and guts rivalry where home field advantage doesn’t really matter. Baltimore has won three of the last five at Heinz Field. The loss of Jimmy Smith will hurt Baltimore’s defense, but the Steelers’ defense is a sieve also. Expect a shootout in the Sunday Night affair.
Kyle’s pick: Pittsburgh
N.Y. GIANTS +3.5 over Indianapolis
I’m convinced myself to take the Giants here for two reasons: 1) The Colts defense was exposed last week 2) the Giants had time to regroup their offense after the bye. The week’s second highest over/under means another high scoring showdown. I like the Giants’ pass rush and secondary slightly more than Indianapolis’, so I’ll take the points.
Kyle’s pick: Indianapolis
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 7-8
Season: 64-57-1
Survivor: 6-2
Locks: 11-14-1
Kyle: 64-57-1