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Raiders coach Klint Kubiak, Saints coach Kellen Moore, and Titans coach Robert Saleh
In 2002, the NFL realigned its divisions to the current format. Since then, a fourth-place team has gone on to win the division the following year 30 times. There are eight potential candidates to continue this trend in 2026, but some are more likely to do so than others.
These are the NFL teams that finished last in their division in 2025 with the best chance to finish first in 2026
While there are no guarantees in football, the math would suggest at least one of the cellar-dwellers from the previous NFL season will have a home playoff game this year.
Usually this is a case of injury luck combined with playing the last-place schedule. Last season, both the Patriots and the Bears accomplished this feat, so who is most likely to follow in their footsteps?
8. Arizona Cardinals
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2025: 3-14, last place in the NFC West
The Cardinals have a surprising amount of skill position talent to be ranked dead last. They have Trey McBride (arguably the best tight end in football), a promising rookie running back in Jeremiyah Love, and wide receiver Michael Wilson is coming off a career year.
They’re also heading into 2026 with a new head coach after landing Mike LeFleur, the former offensive coordinator for the Rams. There’s no telling how he’ll fare, but he really doesn’t have anywhere to go but up.
They get the wooden spoon mainly because the division is so stacked. The defending-champion Seattle Seahawks look reloaded, and the Rams added Myles Garrett. Even if Arizona is better than expectations, there isn’t much room for them to win the division.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
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2025: 4-13, last place in NFC West
The worst team in football last year selected Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. They also brought in the Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Both of these moves should serve them well, but it won’t happen overnight (like a lot of things do in Las Vegas). The combination of a weak O-line and lack of weapons won’t make it easy on them this year.
Their best-case scenario is Mendoza showing some flashes and an overall step up from last year’s disaster. Unfortunately, the other 3 teams in this division all have Super Bowl aspirations and will likely banish the Raiders to the bottom of the division again.
6. New York Jets
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2025: 3-14, last place in the AFC East
Aaron Glenn is looking to bring stability to one of the most depressing franchises in all of sports.
He has already had to adjust quickly to the loss of key defensive players Quinnen Williams and Ahmad (not Sauce) Gardner. But the Jets did add veteran safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. They also drafted EDGE David Bailey with the 2nd pick, and next to T’Vondre Sweat, their D-line could be legit.
However, much like the Cardinals situation, this is a 2 horse race at the top. Buffalo and New England have traded off the division for 15 years running and are showing no signs of slowing down.
5. Cleveland Browns
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2025: 5-12, last place in the AFC North
The Browns lost their best player, Myles Garret, via a trade with the Rams, and DeShaun Watson will be taking his first snap in a regular season game since 2024 after emerging as the victor in the QB battle with Shedeur Sanders. They did bring in Todd Monken to get a fresh start at head coach, and this division is more open than it seems.
The Steelers won the division with a mere 10-7 record last year, and the Ravens and Bengals can’t seem to get out of their own way recently. If Deshaun Watson returns to what he once was (which is admitted a big “If”), Cleveland could be more than a laughingstock.
However, winning the division is still a long shot.
4. Tennessee Titans
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2025: 3-14, last place in the AFC South
Robert Saleh gets another chance to be a head coach, and he has a promising young QB to work with.
Cam Ward had moments last year when he looked like That Guy, but he also had more than a few where he looked lost and confused. If the former number 1 overall pick hits his full potential, with the addition of Wan’Dale Robinson, the offense could be legit.
Saleh has shown he can bring hope to a downtrodden franchise, and Tennessee has some talent. Unfortunately, the division sent two teams to the playoffs last year, so they would need some bounces to go their way, but it could happen.
3. New York Giants
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2025: 3-14, last place in the NFC East
John Harbaugh has won his division 6 times in his career. The Giants pair him with some real offensive talent, notably running back Cam Skattebo. They could be a tough run-first team, which Harbaugh is used to coaching.
The division is somewhat winnable; 11-6 is all it took last year. Jaxon Dart will need to show more consistency in staying on the field, but they have a fun culture that could translate into on-field success.
2. Detroit Lions
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2025: 9-8, last place in the NFC North
The first real threat to pull this off, the Lions were also last in their division by default last season thanks to the stacked nature of the NFC North.
Just three seasons ago, this same core played in the NFC Championship Game. They have lost more than they have gained in that time, most significantly Ben Johnson. But they still have an underrated Jared Goff throwing to St. Brown and Williams, and handing off to Gibbs.
It may take the offense a year to click under a new system. Not to mention Aidan Hutchinson should look more like himself as he recovers from the gruesome leg injury suffered in 2024. This is also one of two divisions that allowed the last-place finisher from 2024 to win it in 2025. Who says it can’t happen again?
1. New Orleans Saints
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2025: 6-11, last place in the NFC South
The Saints have the luxuries of the most wide-open division and a promising young quarterback.
Tyler Shough enters his second year after a surprisingly efficient rookie campaign. The Saints added rookie wide receiver Jordan Tyson, and veteran running back Travis Etienne Jr. returns to his hometown team. Pair that with offensive-minded Kellen Moore at the helm and New Orleans should be much more exciting.
The Panthers won this division with a losing record last season, so it is reasonable to think it’s anyone’s game. If Shough takes another step and a few bounces go their way, this is the team that goes from worst to first.