The NFL is all about taking up your Sunday and Week 4 presents it with an opportunity to take it a step further. For the second year in a row, the NFL will kick off a game at 9:30 a.m. EST. This year’s clash in London between the Jets and the Dolphins will give you reason to wake up early, enjoy a nice hangover breakfast, and begin a nice 14 hour journey of NFL action. Make sure to tell your parents and girlfriend that you’re pretty booked up this Sunday and you’ll have to see them another time.
Locks of the Week:
ATLANTA -6.5 over Houston
Atlanta sits in first place in the NFC South with a 3-0 record. They also sit in first place in the NFC East since all three wind have come against teams from that division. (Given the current state of the NFC East maybe they should actually be given rights to the division title.) They host Houston this week and should feel a sense of relief. See Houston’s only beaten Tampa Bay so far this season, not exactly something to write home about. They got torched by an Alex Smith led passing offense. Wait til they get a golf of Matt Ryan. Atlanta’s offensive line has graded out much better than expected through three games, but we’ll get a true test this weekend with J.J. Watt and company. Not even A.C. Slater would help Houston’s cause. Atlanta is just too good offensively and too good on home field for this to be close.
J.Camm’s Pick: Atlanta
CINCINNATI -4 over Kansas City
Cincinnati is another team who has taken care of businesses through three weeks. Thankfully this won’t be a letdown spot against Kansas City because the Chiefs aren’t a complete walkover. Instead the Chiefs are coming in off a short week having played Monday and will have to rely too heavily on Alex Smith with the Bengals having the second strongest run defense according to Pro Football Outsiders. That’s never a good thing.
J.Camm’s Pick: Cincy
DENVER -7 over Minnesota
As detailed in yesterday’s survivor pick, Denver should have no issue with Minnesota this weekend. The offense has found some footing and their defense is too ferocious for Teddy Bridgewater.
J.Camm’s Pick: Denver
Trap Games of the Week:
Jacksonville +9.5 over INDAIANPOLIS
Apparently this shoulder injury to Andrew Luck might keep him out of the game. Even if he plays, he won’t be at 100%. Look for the Colts to be run heavy, kill clock, and just get out of this one with a win. You’re tempted to think the Colts will blow out Jacksonville because the Colts are better offensively at home and Jacksonville just got run by the Patriots, but don’t take it for granted.
J.Camm’s Pick: Jags
Rest of the Picks:
N.Y. Jets -1.5 over MIAMI
It’s a home game for Miami, but not really since it’s in London. They’ve looked quite terrible in their last two games and didn’t do anything offensively against a good defense last week. The Jets defense is as good as Buffalo’s and should see the same results. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed his mediocre quality last week, but he should turn back into game manager this week as the Jets see success running the football.
J.Camm’s Pick: Jets
N.Y. Giants +5 over BUFFALO
It wasn’t pretty, but the Giants did enough to take down Washington last week. It certainly wasn’t as pretty as Buffalo’s destruction of Miami. Remember the Giants could just as easily be 3-0 if they had shown some brain power in their first two games. Their passing game will keep this reasonably close and they could even steal a win.
J.Camm’s Pick: Giants
CHICAGO +3 over Oakland
I honestly can’t tell you this pick is based on anything Chicago has done or can do on the field. I’m just expecting the Raiders to come out a little flat on another 1 p.m. EST start time after two straight wins.
J.Camm’s Pick: Oakland
Philadelphia -3 over WASHINGTON
This game could be played in a monsoon. We really don’t know what could happen in that kind of weather. The over/under has already decreased by three points. I’m just taking the quarterback I think will turn the ball over less, but anything can happen.
J.Camm’s Pick: Philly
Carolina -3 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers just keep moving along through inferior opponents despite not having competent NFL receivers. Their defense is extremely banged up, so this could be a tough game for them. They do, however, still have Josh Norman, who’s emerging as one of the best cover corners in the league. That’s bad news for Mike Evans since Cam Newton force fed him plenty last week.
J.Camm’s Pick: Carolina
Cleveland +7.5 over SAN DIEGO
San Diego is known to lay an egg at home as a big favorite. Their defense also has the ability to keep the other team in the game. I’m not a believer in backing a McCown on the road, but those factors are enough to at least have me pick Cleveland as the side. I, like the players in Cleveland, really believe this should be Johnny Football’s game from now on. We’ve seen all we can see from McCown.
J.Camm’s Pick: Chargers
SAN FRANCISCO +9.5 over Green Bay
This is a guaranteed letdown spot for the Packers coming in on a short week after two bigger games. San Francisco has looked pretty poor since Week 1, but they should be able to get more going offensively in this one. I see a backdoor cover in my future as long as Colin Kaeprnick isn’t stupid enough to mock Aaron Rodgers like Jamaal Charles did.
J.Camm’s Pick: Packers
St. Louis +7 over ARIZONA
I love what Arizona brings to the table, but they have only beaten New Orleans, Chicago, and San Francisco in their three games. Those teams have as many wins combined as St. Louis has, but it’s not like St. Louis is a juggernaut itself. They do, however, have a better defense than all the previously mentioned team and should keep this game close. I hate to pick against Carson Palmer and Arizona given their ATS record, but my gut says they’re riding too high right now.
J.Camm’s Pick: Arizona
Dallas +4.5 over NEW ORLEANS
This is another game with a lot of question marks. It looks as if Drew Brees will play, but maybe that doesn’t move the needle considering how bad the Saints were with him starting the first two games. Dallas needs to focus on running the ball down New Orleans’ throat. They will have success there, which should get them a win or a close loss.
J.Camm’s Pick: New Orleans
SEATTLE -9.5 over Detroit
Matthew Stafford struggled mightily against Denver’s defense. Seattle’s squad has just as formidable a group and should pose the same issues for Detroit. Detroit’s run defense has been getting gashed in 2015 with King Suh in the middle, so Seattle should be able to keep that trend going.
J.Camm’s Pick: Detroit
This Week: 0-0-1
Last Week: 11-5