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Welcome to part 2 of our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, where today we take a look at players I have the most interest in using on DraftKings in their tournaments. In these articles, I am going to pick two players that I am the most interested in using, from three different tiers. $9,000 and up, $7500-$8900, and under $7500.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is just that, an invitational. So it’s a bit of a smaller field than a typical PGA tour event, giving us a higher percentage of the field making the cut. When this happens, we are able to take some more risks in our lineup, as lower priced guys have a slightly better chance of making the cut, and getting us the points we need.
The API typically has a finishing score for the leader of around -13. This means we need a combo of bogey avoidance and birdie makers. However, we don’t need our guys to go nuclear and shoot 21 under par over 4 days like some other events. But we do need guys that can go a bit low, we can’t just take guys that grind out pars all over the place. They won’t finish high enough for us to win all the money.
Looking over key stats this week, we are looking for guys who are excellent drivers off the tee, and have great approach shots. The greens here are Bermuda grass, so we also want to see if we can find some guys who are either great putters in general, or show a substantial improvement in their putting when they move to Bermuda greens. Trust me, there are guys out there that look like great course fits, but they can’t figure out putting on Bermuda greens. We’re going to avoid them.
Let’s take a look at who we should be building our DK lineups around this week
$9,000+
Rory McIlroy $11,800
I didn’t include McIlroy in my betting segment, because as only a 5-1 favorite in this field, those odds are just entirely too low. The payoff for betting McIlroy simply isn’t there. With that being said, he’s still most likely going to play great here. He’s got a great course history, and his stats line up perfectly. So I’m going to have a lot of him in my DraftKings lineups.
Xander Schauffelle $10,000
Schauffelle is another guy who sets up perfectly for this course. He rates out third overall in my model, and is elite in regards to the field in literally every category I am zeroing in on. My only pause is this is his first time playing this event, but we’ve seen him destroy fields before as a first timer, so I am not too concerned.
$7500-$8900
Viktor Hovland $8000
Fresh off his first ever PGA tour victory two weeks ago, Hovland comes in severely underpriced at only $8k this week. He’s 4th in my model, exceptional across the board, and obviously comes in playing in great form. He’s a tremendous driver of the golf ball…a perfect recipe for success here. He’s too cheap, he’ll be in most of my lineups this week.
Tyrell Hatton $8100
Hatton has played in this tournament the last three years, making the cut each time, and topping out with a fourth place finish just three years ago. Hatton just had an exceptional showing at the WGC Mexico finishing in sixth place, so his form is exactly what we are looking for. He’s priced pretty low for his upside.
Under $7500
Carlos Ortiz $7100
Carlos Ortiz comes in at 23rd in my model. He’s in the upper echelon of most stats I am looking for, and significantly improves his putting when he is on Bermuda grass. He also has played this course twice, finishing with a top 30 placing each time. For only $7100, we’ll absolutely sign up for another top 30 appearance out of Carlos.
Sebastian Munoz $6900
Munoz is another guy in the top 25 of my model, a cheap price, and comes in great form. He’s made three straight cuts, and finished in 14th in a loaded WGC Mexico field. He’s never played here before, but his stats check out almost across the board. For such a cheap price, he’s certainly worth a look at it in your lineup to provide some salary relief.
Good luck this week, and see you at the top of the leaderboards!