Revealing Metric Suggest Texas A&M Will Run The SEC Contrary To Transfer Portal Reports

The Texas A&M Aggies had an incredibly disappointing 2022 season. Their 5-7 record was the Aggies’ worst record since 2008 when A&M went 4-8.

What made the Aggies’ lack of success in 2022 so confounding was they came into the season as part of the National Championship conversation. Head coach Jimbo Fisher had just secured the highest-rated recruiting class in College Football history but the Aggies lost six games in a row from October 1st through November 12th.

College Football relies on recruiting and talent retention to improve year over year. Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M have been a recruiting powerhouse in recent years.

Questions about Jimbo Fisher’s squad loomed after the Aggies lost 25 players to the Transfer Portal, the most of any team in the nation. However, a report from ESPN’s Bill Connelly suggests the Aggies are in better shape than any other team in the SEC.

Bill Connelly looked into ‘Returning Production’ on both Offense and Defense. What he found is the Texas A&M Aggies lead the SEC in returning production.

A&M ranks 7th in the nation/across all schools. The Aggies are returning 80% of total production. That includes 80% of offensive production and 77% of defensive production.

In the SEC, Missouri is close behind with 78% of its production returning. After that, the SEC falls off.

Why Texas A&M Will Win The SEC In 2023

It makes sense, the SEC sends the most players to the NFL of any conference. But this list doesn’t bode well for the Florida Gators:

Here is what it looks like by the best (returning most production) in each conference:

Each conference's returning production leader:

AAC: FAU 83%
ACC: FSU 87%
B12: KU 85%
B1G: Mich 81%
CUSA: FIU 74%
Indies: UConn 80%
MAC: Toledo/NIU 77%
MWC: Wyo 83%
P12: USC/Utah 76%
SEC: A&M 80%
SBC: USA 77%

3 defending champs on the list! And obviously UConn's going 12-0.

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) February 7, 2023

That same report from Bill Connelly also suggests my alma mater, Florida State, is poised to be back in the National Championship conversation for the first time since Jimbo Fisher left Tallahassee.

His opening words about FSU reveal how much College Football fans should expect to hear the media discussing the Seminoles next season:

Brace yourself, friends: We’re going to be talking about the Noles quite a bit in 2023. After winning their last six games of 2022 to finish with double-digit wins for the first time in six years, Mike Norvell and Florida State have entered the offseason with the most returning production in all of the FBS.

At the moment, FSU returns 87% of last year’s production — 80% on offense (11th overall) and 94% on defense (second). The Seminoles lead the way in this year’s rankings, while other teams with exciting 2022 stories have plenty to be encouraged about as well.

There are clearly other factors at play in determining a team’s success year over year.

Returning production is a huge indicator of future success but recruiting, staying healthy, off-field issues, coachign staff retention/changes, and any number of other factors all play into future success.

With that said, I’m predicting a Texas A&M vs Florida State 2023 National Championship based on Bill Connelly’s work.

The NCAA published a ‘Way-too-early college football preseason top 25’ for next year. They have FSU ranked 7th and Texas A&M isn’t ranked at all.

ESPN published a similar ‘too early top 25‘. They’ve got FSU ranked 4th and Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies aren’t ranked.