Stock Markets Thrive On The Same Day The NBER Announced The US Entered A Recession In February

Unsplash/Roberto Júnior


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“Shut up and take my money.” – Investors after the May unemployment figures Friday showed a gain of 2.5M jobs for the month.

The markets were all in green on Monday. The Nasdaq notched its first record close since February, ending the day up 1.1% at 9,924.74. The Nasdaq 10k stans smell blood in the water.

The S&P has turned positive on the year, up roughly 0.1% YTD. More impressively, not a single one of the 505 stocks has a negative return in the previous ten weeks. The highest being Apache Corp with a 293.50% return, and Tiffany edging out a 0.53% gain. Quite the spread.

As for the Dow? It gained 461.46 points during trading, closing at 27,572.44. Still in negative territory and below its highs.

So, why the hype?

Investors are ‘gassed up’ after OPEC reached an agreement Friday to extend production cuts of 9.6M barrels per day through July.

And on Monday WHO reported that asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 are very unlikely to transfer coronavirus to others. Sooo you’re telling me July 4th is about to be lit? Clearly no one has any idea wtf is going on in the ‘rona world.

The bottom line…

Stonks are way up, so what’s there to worry about? 

Well, the entire National Bureau for Economic Research must have been furloughed the past three months, as the organization reported just yesterday that the US dipped into a recession in February (yeah, no sh*t).

And the “recession” designation isn’t something the NBER takes lightly… not that you’d expect a bunch of government economists to not take their job way too seriously. The Bureau typically waits until a recession is well under way to call a spade a spade (hence the seemingly delayed report). But this was an open and shut case for obvious reasons.

The scarlet letter marks the end of a 128-month economic expansion in the US. Not a bad streak…

Water Cooler Talking Point(s)

💧 “Litquidity with the big #mood.” (Nick, The Water Coolest HQ)


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The Water Coolest is a daily business newsletter consisting of business news, financial advice, and unfiltered commentary. Delivered fresh in your inbox every morning so you're ready to snap necks and cash checks. Written by Tyler Morrin, AJ Glagolev, Nick Ellis, and Ian Barto.