Via iStockphoto / @flameheartsanrblx TikTok
A Domino's delivery driver has noticed a recession indicator based around her regulars' buying patterns. Is pizza a recession indicator?
People can be creatures of habits, hence why “regulars” exist. The regular enjoys the familiarity of a certain product and doesn’t want to stray away from a tried-and-trued thing. However, when times get tough, even regulars will make adjustments to save money.
In a TikTok with over 82,200 views, Nesha (@flameheartsanrblx) noticed a “recession indicator” from her Domino’s regulars. She says their buying patterns have changed.
“One of the biggest recession indicators that I have noticed is that my usual regular customers that I deliver to, haven’t been delivering,” Nesha begins.
The Domino’s delivery driver has noticed that her frequent delivery stops haven’t been so frequent anymore.
“Mind you these people order every other day. Now it’s like once a month,” Nesha reveals.
Can Pizza Be A Recession Indicator?
With inflation, tariffs, and a war in Iran, it feels like everything has gotten more expensive—and this includes pizza. Pizza used to be the cheap Friday night meal, as it would feed a whole group without breaking the bank.
Grewal Lecy Marketing reports the pizza index to be a recession indicator similar to the lipstick index. When times are tough, consumers will make fewer impulsive purchases. In the case of pizza, consumers will skip out on adding the additional wings, breadsticks, and other sides.
My Pizza Corner reports the average pizza price is between $8 to $9. Pizza shop owners have felt the weight of the price of pepperoni increasing. A 25-pound package of pepperoni is now $140 compared to $110 a few years ago.
The added delivery fees have not helped the cost for buying pizza. Pizza Today shares delivery charges can span anywhere from $3 to $7 from major pizza retailers. On average, most places will charge $4.99, which does not include tip and tax.
With the extra fees, pizza consumers started opting out of delivery and going directly to the store for pickup. Domino’s CEO reported a drastic increase in customers picking up in store instead of paying the delivery fees in 2024.
Food and Wine reports that when budgets get tight, frozen pizza consumption goes up. Eating out, in most cases, will always be more expensive than making food at home. Frozen pizzas can typically be picked up for under $10 and are a great option when spending needs to be cut.
Using one product like pizza to indicate a recession about to take place is challenging to do. There are many more factors that come into play, and pizza consumption itself can’t predict a complex concept like a recession.
‘I Used To Get Domino’s Twice A Week’
Viewers in the comment section believe the increase of cost with pizza isn’t helping the cause.
“I swear pizza costs at least $40-60 bucks now,” one TikTok commenter wrote.
“Literally I’ve seen someone pay $40 for 2 medium pizzas,” Nesha replied.
“Pizza is sooooo expensive now, I just get the frozen pizza if my kids want pizza,” another said.
“I used to get Domino’s twice a week, and I don’t think I’ve ordered in a few months,” a commenter shared.
Others believe the quality isn’t worth the price that is being charged.
“The quality is bad now,” one shared.
“It tastes bad now,” another added.
“I’ve seen the quality of every pizza place plummet. I’ve been cooking for 10 years and I noticed! The door dashes for the restaurant I work at are probably at half,” a third said.
BroBible reached out to Nesha by TikTok direct message as well as to Domino’s via email.