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During their 31-23 loss to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional Round game on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempted a two-point conversion after scoring a touchdown to cut the Lions lead to 8 points.
The attempt failed, leaving the Bucs trailing by a score of 31-23, which is how the game ultimately ended thanks to a game-sealing Baker Mayfield interception.
Given that going for two while down 8 is a relatively newer analytics quirk, many NFL fans were confused by the Bucs’ decision, which led ESPN’s Mina Kimes to explain the logic on social media.
“This one is pretty simple math. Essentially, if you’re down 8, you’re going to have to score another touchdown, which means you have two opportunities to go for two, or kick the extra point. The odds of you converting at least one of them are better than not,” Kimes explained. “And, if you convert the first time, you can win in regulation, as we saw the Packers and the Titans both do this year.”
“In fact, more teams than ever are doing it. My colleague ran the numbers and from 2002 through 2017, there were zero two-point attempts [while] down 8. This year, the rate was over 30%, so all of the coaches seem to get it now, rather, a lot of them seem to get it. Even Todd Bowles. And if you want to be mad about math, don’t be mad about that. Be mad they called a low percentage play, the goal line fade, because it sucks.”
Going for 2 down 8 pic.twitter.com/UWqENYiL5Q
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) January 23, 2024
The Bucs’ failed two-point conversion ultimately didn’t matter in the end as their chances of a comeback were thwarted after quarterback Baker Mayfield threw an interception on the second snap of their final possession, allowing the Lions to take over and run out the clock in victory formation. Somewhat controversially, in fact, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles opted not to use his final time out despite the fact that they were still mathematically alive.
With their win over the Bucs, Dan Campbell, Jared Goff and the rest of the Detroit Lions advanced to the franchise’s first NFC Championship game since 1991, where they’ll take on the #1 seed San Francisco 49ers.