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The good news: we won you money last week, as our picks went 2-1. The bad news: we would’ve gone 3-0 if Liverpool hadn’t decided to take the absolute piss and forget how to defend. Still, a winning week is a winning week, especially when considering how difficult it is to gauge early-season games before we really know who these teams are.
With a successful matchweek one in the bag, we’re feeling great about our picks heading into this weekend as there’s tons of value to be found in this weekend’s Premier League slate. So let’s quit wasting time and get your football Sunday bankroll stocked by cashing in some wins on Saturday morning.
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Leeds -.5/-1 v. Fulham | Saturday, 9/19, 10:00 a.m. EST
As mentioned above, had Liverpool remembered how to defend and not ship three goals at home to a newly-promoted side, we would’ve gone 3-0 last week. But, luckily for football fans, Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United side were as exciting as advertised, looking more than capable of competing in the Premier League a year after absolutely dominating the Championship.
Fulham — another newly-promoted side — on the other hand, did not fare as well, looking generally hapless in their 3-0 defeat to Arsenal. When it comes to sides making their return to England’s top football division, Leeds and Fulham were night and day.
So, with that said, I’m taking Leeds against the spread here, as their offensive output against Liverpool will simply be too much for a side like Fulham to handle. Plus, despite the loss, Leeds are likely playing with even more confidence now knowing they can go toe-to-toe with one of the world’s best football teams. If you can, get this line at -.5/-1 NOW, because I can almost guarantee it’ll move to a solid -1 by Saturday morning.
Manchester United -1.5 vs. Crystal Palace | Saturday, 12:30 p.m. EST
Manchester United — with Bruno Fernandes now fully embedded, Paul Pogba healthy, and new signing Donny van de Beek in the midfield — simply have too much firepower for Crystal Palace to cope with, despite their impressive opening day victory over Southampton. United’s young and hungry frontline of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, and Mason Greenwood will also be looking to begin this season on the front foot.
Arsenal vs. West Ham OVER 2.5/3 Goals | Saturday, 9/19, 3 p.m. EST
Not to alarm anyone, but I truly do believe that Arsenal has turned a corner. For longer than I can remember, their identity has been spinelessness. Just soft as baby shit. Whether they were up two goals or down two, they’d crumble.
But ever since former player Mikel Arteta took over as manager, Arsenal seemed to have found their cajones, as their not only winning tight games, but they’re doing so with their defense (see: Community Shield against Liverpool, where they held the reigning champs to one goal from open play).
Now, that said, that doesn’t give me enough confidence to bet on the moneyline or spread, as there’s not enough value in either line, particularly when it comes to teams as erratic as these two.
Where I do see the value is the total goals line, which sits at BetMGM at 2.5 for -165. With Aubameyang signing a new deal earlier this week, you gotta believe the Premier League’s best striker is going to want to remind everyone why he’s worth all that money. And who better to do that against than West Ham, a club seemingly in perpetual yet extremely gradual freefall. West Ham will likely be desperate for points here, so it’ll be interesting to see if they sit deep or try and punch Arsenal in the mouth early. Either way, I see at least three goals in this game.
Liverpool TO WIN at Chelsea (+120) | Sunday, 9/20, 11:30 a.m. EST
I’m going to be completely honest with you: this one is a gut/heart pick. Frankly, other than beating Chelsea a couple of months ago by a score of 5-3, Liverpool hasn’t shown many of the characteristics that made them champions of England and Europe. Just look at their opener last weekend, where they shipped three goals to leads, all of which were avoidable with sharper concentration and execution. All that said, the value here is simply too good to pass up, as you can rarely get Liverpool at plus odds.
You see, while Liverpool’s drop in form has been obvious, it’s also been explainable, as the team had essentially been playing at 110% for three straight seasons that saw them compete in two Champions League finals (winning one) and two Premier League races (losing 18/19 by 1 point to Man City, winning last season by 18 points). It’s totally natural to see how and why their sharpness dropped off after their goals had been achieved, especially without fans to spark the on.
But this is a new season — the slate has been wiped clean. Liverpool’s past achievements mean nothing towards their future goals, which is capitalizing on the immense talent they currently have and winning as many trophies as possible. After being humbled in a narrow win over Leeds, I expect Liverpool to lick their wounds and remind everyone why they’re among the world’s best teams. There will be an extra pep in the Reds step following the Thursday signing of world-class midfield Thiago and an extra edge in their game following the recent war of words between Jurgen Klopp and Chelsea manager Frank Lampard.
Don’t get me wrong, Chelsea is and will be great this season, but with most of their new signings still gelling and Liverpool out to prove of a point, I just hope think the defending Premier League champions will be too much for the Blues.
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