Welcome to the fantasy football playoffs! (Unless of course your playoffs started last week. In that case you hopefully survived for one more week.) Get ready for the chaos to start. The regular season is a stretch that should always see some type of reward because consistency over 13 or 14 weeks deserves recognition either in the shape of weekly winner prizes, regular season points champ, or the default top of the standings position. The playoffs are completely random because anything can happen in a given week.
Take last week for example. You could’ve started a team that included Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Thomas Rawls, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, and Tyler Eifert. That team would’ve likely gotten you a very good regular season record, but it didn’t get the job done in Week 14. Shit happens. That’s life. That’s fantasy football. Make the best decisions you can this week. Not all of the best decisions yield results. Just hope those decisions win you more situations than you lose.
Below is a list of guys I’m focused on for one reason or another this week. They’re especially important in daily fantasy sports (DFS) leagues like DraftKings. If you’re curious about guys you don’t see listed here, you can always find me on Twitter (@MrT_BroBible) to ask questions, but remember to mention league specifics like PPR.
You Know Who You Should Start?
Alex Smith (QB – Kansas City)
The streaming situation at the quarterback position is pretty piss poor compared to the previous few weeks. It’s about as bad as an Alex Smith deep ball. Unfortunately we look to Smith this week because of the situation he’s in. He gets the pleasure of taking on the Baltimore, who have been cut up for the second most points allowed to fantasy QBs. Smith has been consistent with what he provides because of his legs and a somewhat successful offense. He’s hit double digits in all but one game this year, including putting up no worse than 13 in the last five games. Take a shot with Smith if you’re a Dalton owner or someone looking for a streamer. Other guys a step above worth looking at this week are: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan (yes, I know he’s been terrible) Matthew Stafford, and David Carr.
Denard Robinson (RB – Jacksonville)
We always talk about opportunity and volume. Robinson gets all of that this weekend as T.J. Yeldon looks likely to sit with a sprained knee. What better spot for Robinson than to go against the Falcons, who have given up the most touchdowns and receptions to opposing running backs. It’s Christmas come early for those who got their hands on Robinson.
Ameer Abdullah (RB – Detroit)
If your running back situation is dire because each week we seem to lose two or three starters, you’ll do worse than taking a chance on Abdullah this weekend. The Lions continue to lose, which means it’ll soon be time for them to see what Abdullah can do. What better chance to see that then against New Orleans? The Saints have given up the second most points to RBs this year and things have gotten worse in recent weeks. New Orleans is giving up 5.59 yards per carry to RBs in the last four games, which means Abdullah will have space when he gets the ball. With breakaway speed, there’s an outside chance for Abdullah to break one and save your fantasy team from the cemetery.
Michael Floyd (WR – Arizona)
If you look at the stats of Cardinals receivers in the last four games where Michael Floyd has been healthy, you’ll notice that he’s the most dominant force on the field. Maybe it’s Larry Fitzgerald getting the tighter coverage and John Brown being the speed opposing teams are scared of. Floyd has gone over 100 yards in those four games with a touchdown in three out of four. Philadelphia has been dominated by wide receivers this year, giving up the second most fantasy points to the positions. Look for Floyd to lead the way against the Eagles again.
Nate Washington (WR – Houston)
Washington has had some big games this year and the #2 WR facing the Colts have done the same. That matches Washington up for a big effort as DeAndre Hopkins gets shadowed by Vontae Davis the whole day. The Colts got lit up by Allen Hurns last week and Martavis Bryant the week before, so the trend is as present as it has ever been. Washington is the guy to take a chance on in Week 15.
Jacob Tamme (TE – Atlanta)
The Jaguars have become the newest defense to pick on when it comes to searching for fantasy tight ends. Before last week, they gave up 72 yards or more to the position in their last four games. They gave up two touchdowns to the position in three of those games. Indianapolis couldn’t get anything going offensively, but Atlanta should find better results this weekend. Tamme will be able to help Matt Ryan based on what we’ve seen from the Jags, so he’s a safe streamer if you’re in need. Ricard Rodgers against Oakland and Eric Ebron against New Orleans is another decent option.
You Know Who You Should Sit?
Eli Manning (QB – N.Y. Giants)
This is a good week to be an elite NFL QB because there aren’t that many bad matchups for your studs. Manning is the cautionary tale because he’s got the worse situation. The Giants offense runs through Manning to Odell Beckham and Josh Norman will likely shut that down for most of Sunday’s game. The Giants will have to get creative to get Beckham away from Norman as much as possible. (Hint: Send him to the slot because Norman doesn’t follow receivers there.) The quality of Manning’s weapons really fall off after Beckham, which is why you should look elsewhere this week. The Panthers have only allowed an opposing quarterback to reach double digits once in the last five games. They’ve held down some of the league’s best at times including Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. Eli’s not worth the risk in this matchup.
Darren McFadden (RB – Dallas)
The former college standout has done reasonably well this year in his opportunity to lead the Cowboys in carries. McFadden has put up four 100-yard rushing games and hit double digits in five games since the bye in Week 6. Unfortunately it all comes crashing down for McFadden this weekend since he takes on the stout Jets run defense. The Jets are Football Outsiders #1 ranked rushing defense and for good reason. The Jets have only let RBs cross the 100-yard mark in three games this year and are looking sharp in holding two of their last three opposing RBs to under 10 rushing yards. Since the Jets haven’t given up a rushing touchdown since Week 3 and the Cowboys will struggle to move the ball through the air, it’s best to pass on the Razorback in this one.
Any Panthers or Seahawks RB (RBs – Carolina & Seattle)
By now you know Thomas Rawls is out for the season and Jonathan Stewart looks like he’ll miss Sunday’s game. Unfortunately instead of choosing one person to replace those players, it looks as if the teams are going with a committee format. The shame here is the opponents in these games, the Browns and the Giants, are two of the ten worst teams against the run this year. Bryce Brown is too risky of a play because Christine Michael knows the offense better than him and maybe the Seahawks will move the ball with recently productive passing attack. Mike Tolbert will get the goal line carries for Carolina, but Fozzy Whittaker looks like the main running back. Unfortunately he sucks and Cameron Artis-Payne will likely be involved too. It’s a situation to avoid when you need some certainty for your playoff lineup.
Dez Bryant (WR – Dallas)
It could be that Bryant is still banged up from an earlier foot injury. It could be that Matt Cassel isn’t good enough to get Bryant the ball. It could be both. Whichever it is, putting Bryant on Revis Island this week doesn’t make fantasy owners feel happy. We’ve seen enough from Bryant since his return to know that it’s time to look for an alternative. It’s the playoff. You don’t have time to wait anymore.
Amari Cooper (WR – Oakland)
The #1 rookie receiver in the 2015 class came out firing to start the season, but has cooled off tremendously in recent weeks. Cooper has managed five yards or less in two of his last four games and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9. Green Bay has allowed the sixth fewest receiving touchdowns to WRs this year, so it’s not likely Cooper’s touchdown luck will change this weekend. As Green Bay’s offense is no longer operating at league-high levels, they won’t be amassing a huge lead with Oakland chasing them down. It may be tough to bench the rookie stud, but options like Doug Baldwin or the aforementioned Floyd are who you need to be going to right now.
Travis Kelce (TE – Kansas City)
You probably won’t bench Travis Kelce, but I’m telling you to do so if you have some decent alternatives. The facts clearly show that Kelce hasn’t lived up to the hype this year. Maybe it’s Andy Reid’s fault or maybe it’s Kelce. Either way, Kelce has only scored four touchdowns this year and hasn’t passed 100 yards since Week 1. The Ravens are pretty good at holding down TEs, limiting them to the third least fantasy points this year. Beware of disappointment with Kelce this week and possibly Delanie Walker too since the Patriots have only given up double-digits to TEs once this year.