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Super Bowl weekend is finally upon us. We’ve already given you three prop bets for the game that you can actually win some money on as well as the key stats for the Chiefs – 49ers matchup, but now it’s time to make a pick against the spread.
Super Bowl LIV | San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs | Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
Picking any NFL game against the spread isn’t easy, but when it’s as even a matchup like this one, and for a Lombardi Trophy, it’s extremely difficult. With that being said, it’s worth looking at the history of Super Bowls that have featured recent matchups similar to what this one should be.
While the 49ers’ offense isn’t bad by any means, this team has gotten to the Super Bowl on the heels of their elite defense. The Chiefs are virtually the exact opposite with Patrick Mahomes and the offense being a big-play machine.
Since 2000, the team with the higher-ranked offense is 7-12, losing by an average of 5.6 points. The highest-ranked defense is 15-4, winning by an average of 7.7. While the Super Bowls of the past don’t have an impact on this game, the trend here is still worth taking note of, and it doesn’t favor the Chiefs.
With such an even matchup here, at least on paper, I think you have to lean on the team with the better defense, especially if that team just so happens to be the underdog.
This is a San Francisco defense that gives up the fewest amount of passing yards-per-game and adjusted net yards per play. While Mahomes is beyond a difference-maker and will likely still put up strong numbers, the 49ers have the defense that can limit big plays, at least just enough, to win this game.
We also can’t forget the fact that this is a very well-balanced San Francisco offense. This is a team that has relied heavily on its run game, but don’t get it twisted, Jimmy Garoppolo can still move the ball with his arm; he did have 27 touchdowns and just under 4,000 passing yards during the regular season.
We’re rolling with the more balanced team that just so happens to have the much stronger defense in Super Bowl LIV.
The Pick: 49ers (+1.5)