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The 2026 college football season is right around the corner. Soon, bettors will be placing their future wagers on conference champions across the sport.
This offseason has witnessed a number of controversial eligibility decisions that have directly impacted those odds. The Brendan Sorsby case at Texas Tech is the latest.
The quarterback has declared for the NFL’s supplemental draft. He will not play for the Red Raiders this season.
That decision has caused a shift in conference championship odds. Texas Tech’s chances of winning the title have gone down. It’s allowed others to slide up.
Updated Big 12 Championship odds.
The Sorsby decision created some movement in Big 12 championship numbers, though the Red Raiders are still considered the favorite.
Every school is listed at either even or plus-money. That wasn’t the case with Sorsby on the roster. Let’s take a look at the shifting odds following the latest news. Below, all 16 teams are ranked from favorite to longest shot.
*Odds provided by DraftKings*
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+100)
The Red Raiders are the conference’s defending champs. They went 8-1 in league play with the lone loss coming vs. Arizona State. Starting quarterback Behren Morton was not available for that contest.
Texas Tech owned both a Top 10 offense and defense in terms of scoring. They eventually fell to Oregon in the College Football Playoff.
The goal, now, is to repeat. They’ve made significant moves in the transfer portal to boost their chances but will be without Brendan Sorsby moving forward.
The Red Raiders’ odds were at -146 with Sorsby on the roster. That number has since shifted to +100.
BYU Cougars (+550)
BYU, too, finished 8-1 in conference play last season to book a ticket to the Big 12 title game. They were upended for a second time in the 2025 season by Texas Tech.
Neither of those games were particularly close. The Cougars were outscored 63-14 in the two contests.
Still, there is reason for hope in Provo. The team will return talent, headlined by starting quarterback Bear Bachmeier. Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin is also back.
BYU saw the biggest shift in odds following the Brendan Sorsby supplemental draft announcement. They moved +600 to +550.
BYU proved it could get to the compete for a championship last year. It will look to close the deal this time around.
Utah Utes (+650)
The Utes are undergoing significant change with head coach Kyle Whittingham moving onto Michigan. There is still belief that that program can win the Big 12 championship.
Utah returns starting quarterback Devon Dampier, the league’s reigning newcomer of the year last season. And while the team did lose some notable contributors following Whittingham’s departure, it replaced talent by adding 16 new transfers.
The Utes finished 7-2 last year in Big 12 play to just miss the championship game. A 24-21 loss to BYU sealed their fate. Utah will hope to finish on the right side of the rivalry in 2026. If they do so, a path to the title contest is open.
Kansas State Wildcats (+1400)
The Wildcats entered last season as a favorite to win the Big 12 football championship. Things came off the rails quickly.
Kansas State opened the season with a loss to Iowa State in Ireland. That was followed by setbacks to Army and Arizona.
The team started conference play 1-3 last year before finishing 5-4. The early hole was too deep to overcome. With that being said, they own the fourth-best odds to win the Big 12 this season.
Senior signal caller Avery Johnson announced his return in the offseason to provide a boost for the offense. Freshman of the Year Wendell Gregory will lead the defense after leaving Oklahoma State.
Houston Cougars (+1600)
Houston had a strong season last year going 10-3 with a 6-3 mark in conference play. Much of that talent will return in 2026.
Starting quarterback Conner Weigman leads the way after tossing 25 touchdowns under center and rushing for 11 more. Leading receiver Amare Thomas is also back.
Winning the league could be a tall task, however, given the Cougars must face three of the four teams listed above it during the regular season with all three coming on the road.
Arizona (+1800)
Arizona had a strong 2025 campaign, winning nine games and going 6-3 in conference play. They finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak. Three of their four losses came by a combined 14 points.
The Wildcats were on the cusp of a title appearance. Close setbacks prevented them from getting there. They hope to jump the hurdle in 2026.
Arizona will return starting quarterback Noah Fifita. Head coach Brent Brennan gave him six new pass catchers through the transfer portal.
The Wildcats boasted a Top 30 offense and defense last year. They could be strong once again in the coming season. It could make an 18/1 play worth considering.
Arizona State (+2200)
Arizona State made the College Football Playoff in 2024 after winning the Big 12. They took a step back in 2025. Injuries played a role. Another slip is expected in 2026.
The Sun Devils will lose some talent from an eight-win ball club. Most notably, starting quarterback Sam Leavitt has moved onto LSU.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham has shown the ability to do more with less in Tempe. He’s been able to add talent through the transfer portal both under center and at wideout.
Arizona State is listed at 22/1 to win the Big 12, putting them right in the middle of the pack.
TCU Horned Frogs (+2800)
The Horned Frogs are another Big 12 competitor that saw its highly touted starting quarterback leave in the offseason. Josh Hoover is off to national champion Indiana after four seasons in Fort Worth. TCU will turn to a new leader in 2026.
As a result, the team is surrounded by uncertainty. Coach Sonny Dykes has shown the ability to produce on offense, but a championship game appearance will be a tall task.
The Horned Frogs went 9-4 last year with big wins over North Carolina, SMU, Houston, and USC. It, however, went just 5-4 in conference.
Most believe they’ll be around that mark again in 2026. The Horned Frogs are 28/1 to win the league.
Oklahoma State (+3000)
Not much went right for the Cowboys in 2025. They were 1-11 and winless in Big 12 play. That came after a 3-win campaign in 2024.
Oklahoma State has lost its last 19 conference matchups. Longtime head coach Mike Gundy was fired as a result. New leadership will look to get the Cowboys back on the map.
I was honestly a bit surprised to see the program at 30/1. They’ve finished dead last two straight years. With that said, new coach Eric Morris was able to attract a lot of talent to Stillwater in the offseason.
Oklahoma State welcomes 55 transfers this season. That group is headlined by Drew Mestemaker, the nation’s leading returning passer. With that in mind, there is hope for upward movement in the standings. A championship game appearance might be a few years down the road, though.
Baylor (+3900)
Baylor went 5-7 last year. It puts coach Dave Aranda squarely on the hot seat entering the 2026 campaign. Unfortunately, the outlook on the program doesn’t provide much confidence that he’ll be back in 2027.
The Bears are 39/1 longshots to win the conference after going 3-6 in Big 12 play last season. New talent will shoulder the load in the coming year.
There is reason for optimism. Quarterback DJ Lagway comes in from Florida alongside 30 incoming transfers. The hope is that the defense can return to form under Aranda after a poor ’25 performance.
If it all comes together, improvement should be seen. It may be enough to keep Aranda employed but probably won’t get the team to the championship game.
Kansas (+4500)
The Jayhawks went 5-7 for a second straight season after a breakout 2023 campaign. Gone is starting quarterback Jalon Daniels. An offseason battle will determine his replacement.
Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall return after appearing in a combined 17 games last year. Transfer Chase Jenkins comes over from Rice.
The transfer class features 31 players and includes former 4-star running back Dylan Edwards. Kansas will look to get back to winning ways, but at 45/1, we probably shouldn’t expect to see them in the title matchup.
West Virginia (+6000)
Year 1 of the (second) Rich Rodriguez era got off to a bumpy start. While the Mountaineers picked up a huge rivalry win over Pitt in Week 3, they lost six of their first eight games.
That included a setback against G5 Ohio and blowout losses to UCF, Utah, and Kansas.
West Virginia brings in 34 transfer players next season, headlined by former Oklahoma passer Michael Hawkins, Jr. Scotty Fox, Jr. is also in the mix to win the starting quarterback job. One of those players will look to lead an offense that ranked 110th in the nation in scoring last year.
The Mountaineers are the definition of a longshot in terms of Big 12 championship value, boasting odds of 60/1 entering the season.
UCF (+6200)
UCF went 5-7 after welcoming head coach Scott Frost back to Orlando. He’ll look for marked improvement in 2026.
The Knights bring in James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III to be the starting quarterback. He headlines a transfer group that includes 31 new players.
UCF has struggled since joining the Big 12. It’s yet to record a winning season as a league member. Over the last three years, the Knights are just 7-20 in conference play. Another subpar year could be on the way.
Cincinnati (+9400)
The Bearcats were considered a College Football Playoff contender midway through the 2025 campaign. Cincinnati won seven of its first eight games, with the lone loss being a three-point setback against Nebraska.
They then dropped their last five games to finish 7-6. That downward trajectory is expected to continue. Cincy is a 94/1 longshot to win the conference.
Starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby is gone, having transferred to Texas Tech before his NFL announcement. Two G5 transfer passers have come in as replacements.
The path to a championship is steep for Cincinnati. They’re more likely to finish near the bottom of the standings.
Iowa State (+10000)
Iowa State will be a completely new team in 2026 after winning eight games last year. Gone is head coach Matt Campbell. He’ll replace James Franklin at Penn State.
Much of the roster followed suit. Fifty-five players left the program this offseason. Twenty-three are headed to State College.
New coach Jimmy Rogers signed 48 transfers to rebuild the lineup. Immediate success is not expected. Iowa State is listed at 100/1 to win the conference championship.
Colorado (+12000)
Things don’t look good for Colorado entering the 2026 season. Deion Sanders’ bunch is projected to finish near the bottom of the standings.
The Buffs have the longest Big 12 title odds of any conference member. At 120/1, they are staring down the barrel of another season of struggles.
Colorado went 3-9 last year. Starting quarterback Kaidon Salter is gone. Julian Lewis is expected to take the reins.
As he’s done each and every year, Coach Prime brings in a slew of transfer talent. Forty-three new players will join the roster. Unfortunately, that comes in response to losing 36 former contributors, including 5-star offensive lineman Jordan Seaton.
The Buffs are not expected to sniff the conference title game.