Here Are Our Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread


Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

It might end up being called the “Hasslebeck Flu Game.” I’m not exactly sure how it happened, but Indianapolis put up 27 points on Houston and won by a touchdown. The Colts even woke up the corpse of Andre Johnson to catch two touchdowns in this game. Bill O’Brien’s players are already quitting on him and the rest of the coaching staff. That’s not a good look for a new coach through five games. The Colts have won three games after looking miserable in their first two games against Buffalo and the New York Jets. If there’s anything we learn from this game I think it’s that the AFC South is awful. I’m looking forward to New England running Indianapolis out of the building next week.

Locks of the Week:

St. Louis +10 over Green Bay

The Rams are riding the wave from last week’s victory into this game. It might be seen as a letdown spot, but letdown spots are more of a college play than a pro one. The key to this is St. Louis will be run heavy and try to keep Green Bay off the field. They can do that now that they have Todd Gurley going against the 31st best run defense according to Football Outsiders. It’s hard for Green Bay to blow this game out if they’re not on the field. Besides, how do you not support Stedman Bailey after he got fined for such a benign celebration?

J.Camm’s Pick:St Louis

Arizona -3 over DETROIT
We choose another NFC West team against an NFC North team in the second lock. Some may look at Detroit’s close loss at Seattle last week and think the Lions should’ve won the game if Calvin Johnson hadn’t fumbled right before scoring. I look at it and conclude that Detroit was pretty terrible and was only in the game because of a late Russell Wilson fumble that resulted in a touchdown. Arizona is well coached and will bounce back in this one. Their offensive line is ranked 4th in pass blocking by Football Outsiders compared to Seattle being ranked 32nd. Detroit just won’t have the same success getting to the passer this week.

J.Camm’s Pick: Arizona

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
In typical fashion the Chargers snuck out a victory last week. Now they get to welcome Michael Vick to town in what could turn into a shootout. Both teams are ranked in the bottom half of pass defensive efficiency rankings on Football Outsiders. If things do turn into a shootout, I’ll have my money on the guy who actually still has a starting job as opposed to a guy who looked pretty bad as a replacement last week. Vick may’ve have had a short week to prepare, but he showed his faults by not being an accurate passer when it mattered.

J.Camm’s Pick: Pittsburgh

Trap Game of the Week:

CINCINNATI -3 over Seattle
People think Seattle is back. The defense is back, but the offense has a long way to go. They put up 13 points against Detroit, who had given up at least 24 points in their first three games. That’s not going to cut it on a weekly basis. Of course I’m insanely worried about Andy Dalton against Seattle’s defense, but at least the game isn’t in primetime where Andy struggles the most.

J.Camm’s Pick: Seattle

Rest of the Picks:

Washington+8 over ATLANTA
The Falcons are another team, like Cincinnati, who are hot as fire. They’re offense is lights out so far this year and they’ll definitely be able to score 20+ points against Washington. Like in the game between St. Louis and Green Bay, however, Washington will be able to run the ball against the 23rd ranked rush defense. The Redskins will stay in this game if they don’t turn it over and commit to the run.

J.Camm’s Pick: Atlanta

KANSAS CITY -9 over Chicago
I thought about taking the Cutler-led Bears in this spot, but Chicago won’t be able to stop Kansas City’s offense. Chicago is in the bottom six in the league in both run and pass defense. Andy Reid might look smart on his play-calling this week.

J.Camm’s Pick:Chicago

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
You don’t have to worry about Baltimore’s pass defense as long as Cleveland is trying out their starting cornerback as a wide receiver. They should’ve held on to Terrelle Pryor if they were going to do something as silly as that. Justin Forsett should have another solid game against Cleveland’s mediocre run defense. The Ravens will win this by a touchdown at least as long as Baltimore doesn’t do anything stupid.

J.Camm’s Pick: Cleveland

Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
I know Jacksonville got run by the Patriots a couple weeks ago, but every team in the league is getting run by the Patriots these days. That game has skewed all their early season defensive numbers. Remove that game and Jacksonville has only allowed 18.66 points a game. By comparison Tampa has given up an average of 29.3 points per game. I’ll chose the better defense when both teams are mediocre.

J.Camm’s Pick: Jacksonville

PHILADELPHIA -4.5 over New Orleans
Everyone in Philadelphia is wondering what is going on with the Eagles offense. The best cure for the Eagles offense comes to town this weekend in the form of the Saints putrid defense. Sam Bradford will look like Ron Jaworski against the worst passing defense in the league

J.Camm’s Pick: New Orleans

Buffalo -2.5 over TENNESSEE
This game script looks very similar to what set up for Buffalo when they played Miami. Their great defense takes on a pass heavy offense. This is going to be the first game that Marcus Mariota actually looks like a rookie.

J.Camm’s Pick: Buffalo

OAKLAND +5.5 over Denver
I don’t’ exactly have Denver pegged. I thought they’d run Minnesota off the field last week and didn’t. I think they’ll completely control Oakland’s offense, but something about this game has me coming back to Raider Nation for the upset.

J.Camm’s Pick: Denver

New England -8.5 over DALLAS
It’s nice that Dallas is trying hard with Brandon Weeden and a potpourri of offensive talent. Unfortunately that doesn’t work against the Patriots. Just don’t post this pick to “SnapFace.”

J.Camm’s Pick: New England

San Francisco +7.5 over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants haven’t been this big of a home favorite since 2011. They’re 2-6 in their last eight games as a touchdown or more home favorite. They just don’t deal with regular season accomplishments in the Tom Coughlin / Eli Manning era. The Giants don’t have the pass rush to cause Colin Kaepernick trouble, so Kaepernick should be able to make some better offensive plays this week. The Giants also lack pass rushing and linebacker speed, so catching Kaepernick when he runs will also be an issue.

J.Camm’s Pick: Giants

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 9-5-1
Season: 36-27-2
Locks: 10-2
Survivor: 3-1

J.Camm: 33-30-2