Here’s Everything You Need To Know About The 2016 Belmont Stakes

Ok, so there isn’t a Triple Crown on the line when the 13 horses take the track in Saturday’s 2016 Belmont Stakes, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a great day. The Belmont Stakes is always fun. A sunny Saturday at the track in the summer is always fun. There are also six Grade 1 races on the card, which means it’ll be a highly-competitive day of racing. It also won’t be a zoo getting there or getting home, so I highly suggest heading out to Belmont Park on Saturday to check things out. (No, I’m not getting paid by Belmont Park to deliver this message. Although they should consider it if they want my kind words going forward.)

Now, on to the main race itself. The Belmont Stakes shapes up to be very competitive. Exaggerator is the favorite because of his victory in the Preakness after his second place finish in the Kentucky Derby and he deserves to be. There are, however, many other capable horses in this race, which has it shaping up to be a great value proposition. There isn’t much early speed in the race even though Creator’s trainer Steve Asmussen entered a rabbit in Gettysburg to try to push the early pace. No one will follow, Gettysburg will burn out and then the real racing will begin. Destin, Suddenbreakingnews, Stradivari, Brody’s Cause, Creator, and possibly even Cherry Wine all have a chance to take the title on Saturday.

Look, the Belmont Stakes has put down better horses than Exaggerator in its day. It’s a grueling 1.5 mile race, especially after you’ve run two other races in the 5 weeks leading up to this one. Horses aren’t built to run like that these days. That’s why we didn’t see a Triple Crown for 37 years. If Exaggerator wins this race then you tip your cap, but I’ll be playing against him.

With that, let’s take a look at the horses running on Saturday:

1 – Governor Malibu – 12/1

Expect Malibu to be close to the front in the first half of the race, but don’t expect him to stay there. The inside post will allow him to get out easily, but there’s just not enough quality in his race history to think he can keep up with the bigger boys here. You’ll hear that his trainer did the unthinkable with Tonalist a couple years ago, but this isn’t the same horse. His speed figures don’t match up to the rest of the pack.

 

2 – Destin – 6/1

I’m not sure Todd Pletcher will ever give a horse two months off before the Kentucky Derby ever again. Destin was a solid horse winning two prep races for the Derby, but his time off left him a little flat in the stretch run. Now he’s back after a more customary five week layoff and should be well positioned to make some noise. His breeding lines indicate he should have no problem with the distance.

 

3 – Cherry Wine – 8/1

Cherry Wine stormed late to grab second place in the Preakness, but that was against weaker opponents on a sloppy track. He’s not the worst choice for the back-end of your trifecta or superfecta, but he’s overpriced here based on his last race.

 

4 – Suddenbreakingnews – 10/1

I really liked this horse coming into the Derby and he did alright finishing fifth. He was just way too far back to finish any better. One has to wonder how far back he’ll be here without much speed pushing the pace. If he’s better placed and takes to things well, he could definitely finish in the money.

 

5 – Stradivari – 5/1

Johny V mounts Stradivari for the fifth time and we’ll see if he fares any better than he did in his last Greade 1 race. Finishing fourth in the Preakness was disappointing, but he did put up such a strong speed figure in the race before that he was bound to bounce a little. He’ll likely be in the top three in the back stretch, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can hold on for a top-4 spot.

 

6 – Gettysburg – 30/1

He’ll run fast at first and then he’ll have 12 horses run past him. Thanks for coming out Gettysburg. You did your job as the rabbit here.

 

7 – Seeking the Soul – 30/1

I’m not really sure what Soul is seeking by being in this race other than a paycheck. Dan Illman from the Daily Racing Form like Soul as his longshot because he’ll stay close to the pace, has a good pedigree, and has a trainer who has pulled some rabbits out of his hat. I see a sucker getting pulled into Gettysburg pace, but maybe you want to float him at the back end of your exotics because Dan gets paid more than I do to handicap.

 

8 – Forever d’Oro – 30/1

Forever is how long it will take for d’Oro to finish this race. Here we have another horse with only three races under its belt. He’s got some great pedigree with Medaglia d’Oro as the sire, but I’ll say this steak needs a little more seasoning.

 

9 – Trojan Nation – 30/1

He was a mutt when he had the rail in the Kentucky Derby and he’s still a mutt. No thanks.

 

10 – Lani – 20/1

Do we really need to see Lani race again? Can we send him back to Japan yet? He’s finished outside the top four in the previous two Triple Crown races, so I don’t expect much from him here.

 

11 – Exaggerator – 9/5

Our favorite looks the part. I’ll give him credit for running in the Preakness and winning it when I thought he was going to lose out on the shorter track. He loves being a mudder and he took his favorite surface to the bank. Now we see what he’s made of. I don’t wish him the worse. I just wish that he doesn’t come in first. I’d be surprised if he finishes outside the top 3, which means maybe he’s worth a healthy bet to show.

 

12 – Brody’s Cause – 20/1

The late-runner in the Derby could only get up to 7th, but trainer Dale Romans has a good history of hitting the board in recent Belmonts. Competiting as a closer in the Deby is always tough and we can write off his Tampa Bay Derby performance as a tough start. Look at the rest and we at least have a competitive horse who finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year and he won the Blue Grass Stakes. He’s worth respect in your exotics.

 

13 – Creator – 10/1

Here we have another horse who failed to impress in the Derby as a closer, but he has his excuses as most would say he had the toughest go of any quality horse in the race. Take out that race and he finished in the top two in six of his other eight starts with the other results being a third place and a fifth place finish. He’ll come running like a stud late, so hopefully he isn’t too far back.

 

How to bet the race:

If you do feel like backing the favorite, don’t bet him straight out. Put him in exactas and trifectas with all the quality value we’ve highlighted in the race. I, however, think the best way to approach it is to play that quality on top with Exaggerator underneath in second or third place and root for an upset. Brody’s Cause, Creator, Destin, Stradivari, and Suddenbreakingnews are must haves in any exotics. If you have to pick two horses to play on top go with Destin and Creator.

 

Projected order of finish:

1 – Destin

2 – Exaggerator

3 – Creator

4 – Suddenbreakingnews