HBO
As of the end of the seventh season of HBO’s Game of Thrones, an estimated 174,373 people have died in some violent way, from classic methods like beheadings and stabbing to slightly less traditional forms of extermination like being roasted and eaten by a dragon, getting thrown off a giant magical ice wall, and having molten gold pour on their head.
As any fan of the show knows, it’s important to not get too emotionally attached to any of the characters, as there’s a good chance they’re going to meet a sudden demise. It’s reached a point where people have started death pools concerning which characters will be the next to fall, and anyone who’s invested more than their emotions into the show might be interested in the algorithm that was created to predict who’s most likely to die when the final season rolls around in 2019.
An HBO executive recently hinted basically every character we’ve come to know and love is going to die before the show wraps up, and one fan who might care about the series more than anyone else on the planet decided to collect an exhausting amount of data to calculate the odds of certain characters meeting their demise.
According to Digital Spy, data scientist Taylor Larkin scoured the Game of Thrones books to collect information on basically every character in an attempt to predict their future. Larkin explains his method at length in a post of his own, but here’s a slightly more condensed version:
To launch the algorithm, Larkin studied 2,000 living and dead characters from the GoT book series and analyzed their traits. These included variables such as gender, age, house, nobility status, and how many of each character’s relatives have died.
After plugging the numbers, he calculated the likelihood of death for every major character and fans of Daenerys might have something to be worried about.
Here are the full results:
- Daenerys Targaryen – 83.77% chance of death
- Jaime Lannister – 72.91% chance of death
- Tyrion Lannister – 70.76% chance of death
- Bran Stark – 66.02% chance of death
- Cersei Lannister – 60.39% chance of death
- Jon Snow – 58.99% chance of death
- Euron Greyjoy – 54.95% chance of death
- Sansa Stark – 50.28% chance of death
- Arya Stark – 49.04% chance of death
- Gendry – 39.87% chance of death
Now all we have to do is wait… a year.