7 College Football Teams In The Top 25 Most Likely To Lose In Week 12

We’ve officially reached the home stretch of the 2024 college football season, and teams that are vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff only have a few weeks to firm up their résumé while trying to avoid any losses that could torpedo their postseason hopes.

 

Week 12 doesn’t boast as many games featuring teams in the Top 25 who are in serious danger of losing as we’ve been treated to recently, but there are still plenty of squads that are going to have their work cut out for them.

Here’s a closer look at the factors that could lead to those teams ending up with an L they would very much prefer to avoid at this point in the year.

Note: The AP Poll is being used as the Top 25 in question as opposed to the College Football Playoff rankings

#6 Tennessee

Tennessee is sitting at 8-1 but suffered a massive setback when star QB Nico Iamaleava was sidelined with a concussion during their 33-14 win over Mississippi State last weekend.

His expected absence is a big reason the Bulldogs are listed as 10-point favorites, and their defense is going to need to step up in a big way to make up for that huge loss on the offensive side of the ball.

Georgia will also be coming into the game with a huge chip on its shoulder after a loss to Ole Mis put them on the cusp of the College Football Playoff based on the current rankings.

It may not be a must-win for the Volunteers given the circumstances, but it’s about as close as you can get to that label for the Bulldogs.

#7 BYU

BYU escaped the Holy War with a win with the help of a somewhat controversial holding call Utah fans will be harping on for years to come, and the Cougars sport a 9-0 record heading into their showdown with Kansas.

However, the Jayhawks are only 2.5-point underdogs in the wake of a huge win over Iowa State. This season has been a massive disappointment based on the expectations Kansas had at the start of the year, and while they’re 3-6, they have kept things pretty close in basically every single one of those losses.

The Utes almost pulled off the upset by severely limiting  Jake Retzlaff’s ability to scramble, and that’s a blueprint Kansas will want to follow. QB Jalon Daniels will face a big challenge against the BYU defense, but if he can keep his mistakes to a minimum, this should be a competitive game.

#11 Georgia

Part of me is hesitant to put Georgia on this list when you consider they’re listed as double-digit favorites, but I think this game has the potential to be closer than oddsmakers are predicting.

Carson Beck is still a bit of a wild card thanks to the turnover issues that once again reared their ugly head against Ole Miss, and he’ll be dealing with the aforementioned Tennessee defense that is one of the best in the country when it comes to both yards and points allowed.

They should have an edge on offense if Iamaleava isn’t able to suit up, but it may not be as big as most people seem to think in the grand scheme of things.

#20 Kansas State

Kansas State and Arizona State are both still very much in contention for the Big 12 title, although the Sun Devils face an uphill battle as 8.5-point underdogs against the Wildcats a week before their showdown with BYU.

Both teams are sitting at 7-2 and haven’t lost in conference play, and Kansas State is largely going to rely on Avery Johnson to take advantage of an Arizona State defense that has had trouble with pressuring QBs but does boast a secondary that’s ready to take advantage of misfires.

Arizona State will also be benefitting from the return of standout running back Cam Skattebo, and QB Sam Leavitt was able to pick up the slack after he missed last week’s game against UCF.

ASU’s upset chances hinge on their ability to contain Johnson, and while it’s admittedly a big “if,” I’m not counting the Sun Devils out.

#21 LSU

LSU essentially had its College Football Playoff hopes dashed after getting blown out by Alabama, and while you might think they’d be heavy favorites to beat Florida, the Gators are only 4-point underdogs.

All signs point to DJ Lagway starting for Florida after a hamstring injury sidelined him against Texas, and the Gators will need him if they have any chance of beating the Tigers.

He’ll need to be firing on all cylinders to take advantage of an LSU defense that’s basically imploded at the worst possible time, and if Florida can also establish its running game early on, they’ll be on the right track.

#24 Missouri

Missouri has lost its last two matchups against Top 25 teams, and while they did beat a #24 Boston College squad earlier in the year, the Eagles have shown they didn’t really have any business getting those votes in the first place thanks to what’s transpired since then.

All signs point to that streak being extended to three against a #23 South Carolina team that’s listed as a 14-point favorite thanks in no small part to the injury that will seemingly keep QB Brady Cook on the sideline.

That will make life even easier for a South Carolina defense that already had the advantage, and even though the Missouri D has what it takes to make life difficult for QB LaNorris Sellers, I don’t see the Tigers overcoming the adversity they’re facing.

#25 Tulane

Tulane slid into the Top 25 for the first time this season after extending a seven-game winning streak with a victory over Temple to improve to 8-2.

The Green Wave haven’t had much trouble with their AAC opponents this season, but they’ll be facing their biggest in-conference challenge to date against a Navy squad listed as a 6.5-point underdog.

Tulane has a very solid offense, but it struggled to defend against the run in losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma (although they have cleaned things up a bit since then—albeit against a much lower level of competition).

The Midshipmen, on the other hand, have a dynamic option offense that relies on their ability to get things done on the ground while occasionally giving QB Blake Horvath the chance to take some big shots in the air.

Their defense also has the ability to get some big momentum shifts by forcing turnovers, and if the entire team ends up gelling at the right time, Navy could ruin Tulane’s quest for an AAC Championship berth while fast-tracking its own.