Heisman Week 7 Top Five: Can Anyone Knock Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Off The Top?

The biggest game to date in the Heisman race was played this weekend, with Michael Penix Jr. and Washington beating Oregon’ Bo Nix in a classic, 36-33. Now, with Penix Jr., firmly in control of the race, can anyone else make a run towards the top as the season progresses?

The biggest game to date in the Heisman race was played this weekend, with Michael Penix Jr. and Washington beating Oregon’ Bo Nix in a classic, 36-33. Now, with Penix Jr., firmly in control of the race, can anyone else make a run the rest of the season to the top?

This is not a list of what my ballot would be today. Rather, it’s a projection of the players who are the most likely to win the league.

5. Dillon Gabriel, Quarterback, Oklahoma

Season Stats: 141-195, 72.3% 1,878 yds, 16 TD 2 INT

Dillon Gabriel and undefeated Oklahoma were on a bye this week, which came at a good time to avoid a trap game coming off of the huge win over Texas in week 6.

That win propelled Gabriel into contender status, as his last-minute touchdown drive was a true Heisman moment. If he can lead the Sooners to an undefeated season, he will be a Heisman finalist, at worst.

4. Bo Nix, Quarterback, Oregon

Season Stats: 164-207, 79.2%, 1,796, 17 TD 1 INT

Bo Nix was so close to being on the top of this list when Oregon came incredibly close to beating Washington on Saturday. And, it’s a game they probably should’ve won, as three costly non-conversions on 4th down, two at the goal line, and a missed game-tying field goal were the deciding factors.

Nix was sensational, though, going 33-44 for 337yds, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He played every bit as well as Michael Penix Jr. But, Washington, won, Oregon lost, and that’s why Nix is down at number four and Penix is on top.

3. JJ McCarthy, Quarterback, Michigan

Season Stats: 111-142, 74.3%, 1,512 yds, 14 TD 3 INT

JJ McCarthy and the Michigan offense just keeps rolling along against inferior opponents. But, you can only play who is on the schedule, and JJ McCarthy has shown little to think he doesn’t have a real shot at winning the award.

Indiana was overwhelmed by the Wolverines, and McCarthy was an ultra-efficient 14-17 for 222 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Things really won’t get tough until the end of the season for McCarthy, as he closes the season @ Penn State, @ Maryland, and home against Ohio State. Those are the games that will define his season and Heisman candidacy.

2. Drake Maye, Quarterback, University of North Carolina

Season Stats: 146-212, 68.9%, 1,902 yds, 12 TD, 4 INT

Not only is Drake Maye closing the gap on USC’s Caleb Williams for the top quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s slowly making his way up the Heisman leaderboard. When you’ve got UNC football overshadowing the upcoming hoops season, you know you’re doing something right.

And, that’s exactly what’s going on in Chapel Hill. Maye comes from a family of Tar Heel royalty, and he’s been sensational this year after a great year as a first-year starter in 2022. The numbers don’t pop off the page as much as they for some of the other guys on the list, but he also didn’t have his best receiver, Tez Walker, until the team’s fifth game of the season due to an NCAA eligibility fiasco.

But, he’s throwing the ball at a high level, and the Tar Heels are 6-0. It’s not as if there aren’t some good teams left on the schedule, but they should be favored in every remaining game this season until a potential undefeated showdown with Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.

1. Michael Penix Jr., Quarterback, Washington

Season Stats: 155/215, 2,301 72.1%, 20 TD, 3 INT

For a large part of Saturday’s dramatic 36-33 win over Oregon, Penix Jr., was outplayed by Oregon’s Bo Nix. Things just looked a little tougher for Penix Jr., in terms of keeping the offense on schedule and being efficient. His completion percentage of 59.5% was over ten points lower than any other game this year.

But, when push came to shove, and Washington needed a game-winning drive, Penix Jr. delivered. He took the Huskies 53 yards in two plays to give them a lead with just 1:38 remaining in the game. Come December, no one is going to remember that he only completed 59.5% of his passes and threw an interception in the game. They’re going to remember that drive, and it’s his Heisman moment so far.

I usually don’t talk about Vegas odds in this column, but they can’t be ignored when it comes to Penix. Right now, multiple books have him as a -140 favorite, implying he is now more likely to win the award than not. That’s a little aggressive for me, with half of the season left to be played. But, there’s no doubt he should be on top of the list. The Heisman Trophy is his to lose.