Heisman Watch Week 6: The Bizarre Play Of Caleb Williams

We’re through six regular weeks of the college football season, and week 6 really shook up the Heisman race. Here are the top five contenders for the most prestigious award in college football.

This is not what my ballot would be right now. Rather, it’s a prediction of who will win the award in December.

5. Dillon Gabriel, Quarterback, Oklahoma

Season Stats: 141/195, 72.3%, 1,878 yds, 16 TD, 2 INT, 43 rush yds, 5 TD

There’s a new entry to the top five, as Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel had his signature performance of his career against Texas in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday.

The stat line of 23/38 for 285 yards with a touchdown won’t jump off the page at you. But, He ran offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s offense efficiently for most of the game. And, when it came time to for a statement drive, needing to get into field goal range with 1:11 left following Texas’s go-ahead field goal, he calmly led Oklahoma down the field in five plays covering seventy-five yards, looking every bit like the Heisman trophy winner as he sliced and diced the Longhorn defense. The UCF transfer took advantage of the Longhorn defense playing way too conservatively.

I don’t think he’s the best player in the country or anything. But, Oklahoma sits at 6-0, and will be heavy favorites in all of their remaining regular season games. A likely rematch with Texas awaits in the Big 12 title game, and if Oklahoma can win those and he can keep playing well, it’s hard to see how a scenario where he’s not a Heisman finalist

4. Bo Nix, Quarterback, Oregon

Season Stats: 131/163, 80.4% 1459 yds, 15 TD, 1 INT, 87 rush yds, 1 rush TD

Oregon was on a bye during week 6, but things still happened that could help Bo Nix win Oregon’s second Heisman Trophy and the first since Marcus Mariota in 2014.

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers turned the ball over three times in an otherwise sparkling performance against Oklahoma to knock him out of the top five for now. And, Caleb Williams had an uneven performance, with USC once against showing major vulnerabilities against Arizona. The path for Bo Nix to win the Heisman trophy is certainly there.

But, he will need to play maybe the best game of his college career this weekend against fellow Heisman candidate Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies in a top-ten matchup. If Bo Nix has a statement performance, he could go to the top of this list.

3. JJ McCarthy, Quarterback, Michigan

Season Stats: 97/125, 77.6%,1,290 yds, 11 TD, 3 INT, 133 rush yds, 3 TD

Another player who makes his first appearance, JJ McCarthy is absolutely in the thick in the Heisman race as we approach the halfway point of the season.

Yes, Michigan hasn’t played anyone. Their best opponent so far according to the Sagarin Rankings is 51st-ranked Rutgers. But, outside of a three-interception hiccup against Bowling Green, McCarthy has been surgical as the Wolverines steamroll teams. He operates seamlessly in Michigan’s power-run scheme and executes off of play action at a high level. He seems to be a little more advanced as a passer compared to last year, as well.

McCarthy’s candidacy is going to be a slow burn, and then potentially come on strong. The three best teams on Michigan’s schedule, @ Penn State, @ Maryland, and home against Ohio State, are the last three weeks of the season. He could have all the momentum late in the season, especially if other guys falter.

2. Caleb Williams, Quarterback, USC

Season Stats: 119/166, 71.7%, 1,822 yds, 22 TD, 1 INT, 124 rush yds, 6 TD

Caleb Williams moves down a spot this weekend on the rankings. And, if you saw the highlights of USC’s 3OT win over Arizona, you’re probably questioning why.

The concerns are two-fold. There’s no argument against Caleb Williams being the most talented quarterback in the country. And, the stats are great. But, he’s looking too much for the highlight play so far this season and is frequently eschewing short and intermediate routes that have been schemed up for him by coach Lincoln Riley. I have no problem with him looking to extend plays and making things happen down the field. But, equilibrium for him should look like what Patrick Mahomes does with the Chiefs, and he’s more towards the Johnny Manziel-Texas A&M style right now. Give him credit for making some incredible plays to pull that game out, though.

And, that’s going to catch up with him. It nearly did on Saturday when Arizona outplayed USC and Williams had nine completions midway through the fourth quarter. They haven’t played a good defense yet, and they have four of the nation’s better defenses left in Oregon, Utah, Notre Dame, and UCLA. Given the fact that USC’s defense can’t stop anybody, wasting possessions due to too much ad-lib football could be the difference against those teams, plus Washington.

That being said, if he guides USC to an undefeated season, he’s the Heisman Trophy winner without a doubt.

1. Michael Penix Jr., Quarterback, Washington

Season Stats: Season Stats: 133/178 74.7%, 1999 yds, 16 TD, 2 INT

Like Bo Nix, Penix Jr. was on bye, but he still benefitted from what happened around the country to move up to the top spot for the first time this year.

Penix Jr. is currently running the most consistent offense in the country, and one that I think many would argue is the nation’s best. His quick, accurate, passing and ball placement has three wide receivers putting up All-American-type numbers for Washington. Similar to what Tua Tagovailoa does for the Miami Dolphins, Penix Jr., is adept at getting the ball out in time and in stride to his playmakers.

This weekend’s game against Oregon is obviously a huge inflection point for his campaign. A big performance and a Husky win would make him the odds-on favorite to take home the award in December.