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Quarterback Caleb Williams is the frontrunner to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. The reigning Heisman trophy winner has picked up right where he left off in 2022, leading the country in passing touchdowns and getting the Trojans off to a 6-1 start.
That being said, the star signal caller is coming off of his worst performance of the season, a three-interception outing versus Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish boast a top-flight defense, currently ranking 16th in the nation in points allowed, 14th in yards allowed, and 14th in turnovers forced.
They’ve posted those numbers while having played four of college football’s top 50 scoring attacks, including USC at No. 2.
Williams’ subpar showing last Saturday got one Reddit user thinking about his other performances against Top 25 units. The numbers aren’t all that inspiring.
Caleb Williams vs top 25 defenses
byu/EscapeTomMayflower inCFB
“It concerns me seeing so many people talk about Caleb Williams as a generational prospect at QB,” the post read. “I don’t think the Notre Dame game was anything special. It just exposed all of Williams’ weaknesses that get hidden vs. bad defenses.
“I did some digging into Caleb Williams’ numbers when playing against a Top 25 scoring defense (per CFB reference) and the results are not pretty. He’s played five P5 Top 25 defenses and has had one decent game and four bad to terrible games… The guy has yet to prove he can play against top college defenses let alone NFL defenses.”
Those numbers include ’21 matchups against Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State while at Oklahoma, as well as a ’22 contest versus Oregon State and last week’s outing with the Irish as USC’s starting quarterback.
In those games, he’s thrown six touchdowns to six interceptions while being held to less than 200 passing yards in four of the five matchups. His teams have gone 2-3 in those meetings.
If you throw in a Utah defense that ranked No. 27 in scoring defense last season, that record goes to 2-5 though he did see more success through the air in those games (372 YPG, 8/1 TD-to-INT).
While the middling output against top defensive units is a bit troubling, it likely won’t make a difference come draft time. It could, however, lead to a few more losses before the end of this season for USC.
Caleb Williams still has to face the 5th-, 11th-, and 14th-ranked scoring defenses over his five final contests.
After the loss to Notre Dame, there’s not much room for error if the Trojans want to make a playoff push.