ESPN BPI Predicts Every First Round NCAA Tournament Game, See How Your Bracket Stacks Up

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According to ESPN, their “College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward.”

They add, “Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”

So who better to predict who is going to win in the first round of the 2021 NCAA tournament?

After all, if your bracket gets busted in round one, it makes the rest of March a little less Mad.

Here’s how ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) predicts will win each game of the first round of the 2021 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

(WINNING TEAM IN BOLD)

THURSDAY
11 Drake vs. 11 Wichita State – 65.4%
16 Appalachian State vs. 16 Norfolk State – 59.1%
11 UCLA vs. 11 Michigan State – 58.5%
16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Mount Saint Mary’s – 51.8%

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FRIDAY
16 Hartford vs. 1 Baylor – 97.8%
15 Cleveland State vs. 2 Houston – 97.8%
16 Drexel vs. 1 Illinois – 96.2%
15 Oral Roberts vs. 2 Ohio State – 94.4%
14 Morehead State vs. 3 West Virginia – 90.7%
12 Oregon State vs. 5 Tennessee – 85.5%
12 Winthrop vs. 5 Villanova – 84.6%
13 North Texas vs. 4 Purdue -74.9%
11 Utah State vs. 6 Texas Tech – 74.7%
14 Colgate vs. 3 Arkansas – 69.9%
13 Liberty vs. 4 Oklahoma State – 65.8%
9 Georgia Tech vs. 8 Loyola Chicago – 64.0%
11 Syracuse vs. 6 San Diego State – 56.7%
9 Wisconsin vs. 8 North Carolina – 53.4%
10 Rutgers vs. 7 Clemson – 53.0%
10 Virginia Tech vs. 7 Florida – 52.7%

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SATURDAY
15 Iona vs. 2 Alabama – 93.3%
15 Grand Canyon vs. 2 Iowa – 91.2%
14 Eastern Washington vs. 3 Kansas – 88.9%
13 Ohio vs. 4 Virginia – 85.9%
14 Abilene Christian vs. 3 Texas – 80.9%
13 UNC Greensboro vs. 4 Florida State – 79.1%
12 UC Santa Barbara vs. 5 Creighton – 78.5%
12 Georgetown vs. 5 Colorado – 72.9%
10 Maryland vs. 7 UConn – 65.0%
9 Missouri vs. 8 Oklahoma – 58.9%
10 VCU vs. 7 Oregon – 56.7%
9 St. Bonaventure vs. 8 LSU – 50.1%

So, based on ESPN’s BPI, the only “upsets” we can expect to see in the first round are two of the 9 seeds, Wisconsin and St. Bonaventure, beating their 8 seeded opponents.

That seems highly unlikely, but at least we might be able to use these percentages to properly gauge which games we think could flip to the underdog.