Lincoln Riley has not met expectations as the head coach at USC through the first nine games of the 2024-25 college football season. Should the university ultimately decide to make an earth-shattering change of leadership in the coming weeks, it would not have to pay a single dollar of his buyout because of ongoing probation handed down by the NCAA on Tuesday.
The Trojans have a ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ card if they choose to use it.
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“If” is the key word here. On the surface, it seems unlikely that Riley would be forced to walk the plank just three years after his move from Oklahoma to Southern California. However, USC underperformed during Caleb Williams’ senior season. It will miss out on a bowl game in its first year without the former Heisman Trophy winner with two more losses in any of the next three games against Nebraska, UCLA and Notre Dame.
Is it time to fire Lincoln Riley?
Riley is 23-13 during his first 36 games with the Trojans. He has a Holiday Bowl win and a Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane. His predecessor, Clay Helton, went 26-10 during his first 36 games with a Pac-12 Championship, Rose Bowl win and a Cotton Bowl loss to Ohio State. There is some nuance to their individual records, like strength of schedule, but the results speak for themselves.
USC reportedly signed Riley to a 10-year, $110 million deal in 2022 so his buyout currently hovers around $90 million. The university would normally be forced to pay him that full amount not to coach the football team. However, according to Matt Hayes of USA Today, a series of sanctions levied against the program earlier this week presents an unexpected opportunity to cut its head coach loose for free.
Nearly every (if not every) college football coaching contract in recent history includes an important clause that would allow the university to fire its coach for cause if the program is placed on probation by the NCAA. Riley’s deal presumably includes that same clause. At the very least, the university might choose to pay a much smaller portion of the buyout as part of a settlement should things get litigious.
This could be USC’s escape route from a monster contract that has not heeded the expected results thus far. Only time will tell. Lincoln Riley has exhausted all of his excuses for this year’s struggles, including the transition to the Big Ten. He even made a change at quarterback before the most important three-game stretch of his entire career and needs to win at least two of them.
Should the Trojans miss out on a bowl game, a (free) coaching change isn’t out of the equation!