Jim McIngvale, better known as Mattress Mack, needs the Houston Astros to turn things around quickly in the American League Wild Card Series. After a 6-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, the Astros have to win on Wednesday or else he will be out hundreds of thousands of dollars.
McIngvale placed his bet on Houston after an Astros World Series promotion ran for about two months at his Gallery Furniture store, under which customers who spent $4,000 or more receive full refunds on their purchases if the team wins the 2026 World Series.
According to the New York Post, Mattress Mack is using the prediction market Kalshi to facilitate a $516,000 wager on the Houston Astros to win the World Series, with a possible reward of $13 million if they do.
“Well, we’ve been running the promotion for a while, so we have some built-up liability already,” he told the Post. “Baseball is a very random game, and the Astros have more home runs than anybody”
Mattress Mack added that he already has $4 million in liability on the promotion.
“We’re projected around $12 million in liability if they keep going and get on a roll; they’ve done it before, we’re happy to jump on the ride and bring our customers with them,” he said.
Mattress Mack rarely loses, even when the team he bets on does
McIngvale has been making these types of wagers for years. Sometimes he wins and sometimes he loses. But even when he loses, he mostly still wins.
In 2023, Mack had a potential $26.5 million payout riding on the Houston Astros in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. Unfortunately, the Texas Rangers manhandled the Astros and won the game 11-4 to eliminate Houston.
He also lost a $1.2 million bet at the Kentucky Derby that year and lost another $3.1 million betting on TCU in that year’s college football national championship game.
However, as the New York Post explained in 2024, Mattress Mack “might be the smartest sports bettor in the country.”
His promotion, where his customers who spend $4,000 or more receive full refunds on their purchases if his team wins, basically covers his losses. Essentially, he does the math based on sales from the promotion, looks at the odds and figures out how much he can bet so that, no matter what happens, he comes out ahead.
Sometimes, he comes out WAY ahead, like in 2022 when he won $75 million on the Houston Astros when they won the World Series.
“The last time the Astros won, we gave back $74 million,” Mack told the Post. “Some people got refunded $70,000 back. We pay them back mostly by check or credit card.”