NBA Finals Betting Trend Tells Us To ALWAYS Go Big And NEVER Play It Safe

Getty Image

  • The NBA Finals is one of the most popular events to bet on in sports
  • An interesting stat shows that you should always go big and never play it safe
  • Since 2010, the winner of each Finals matchup is undefeated ATS when it’s set at six points or less

Through the first five games of the 2022 NBA Finals, an interesting betting trend has continued. And if you’ve been lucky enough to hop on the train, you might find yourself up a few units as the series creeps closer to its end.

A stat circulating social media this week states that the winning team has covered the spread in 59 of the last 60 NBA Finals matchups when it’s set at six points or less. That was prior to Golden State’s win ATS in Game 5, making the winning team a near perfect 60-0-1 against spreads six points or less over the last decade plus.

And typically, with the top two teams in the league squaring off, that point total doesn’t far exceed six points.

Take this year, for example. Each of the first five matchups have been set at less than five points for the favorite.

Now, that’s not to say the favorite always wins. In 2022, the team projected to win by the Vegas sportsbooks is just 3-2. But the team that has ultimately won the game is a perfect 5-0 against the spread.

Boston covered (+3.5) in an upset in Game 1. Golden State easily covered (-4.5) in a blowout win in Game 2. Boston (-3.5) in Game 3, Golden State (+4) in Game 4, Golden State (-3.5) again in Game 5… you get the point.

NBA Betting Trend Says Always Go Big, Never Play It Safe

This trend dates all the way back to the 2010 campaign. But what does it mean, exactly?

Well, for underdogs it’s easy. Obviously if they pull the upset, they’ve covered the spread as they were given points. If you like the underdog, don’t mess around with the spread. Just go ahead and take the outright win for a larger payout.

As for favorites, it means that they’re typically winning by wide margins when they do come out victorious.

When favorites have won in the 2022 NBA Finals series, the scoring margins have been 19, 16, and 10 points. If you like the favorite, avoid the money line and go bigger with a pick to cover the spread.

So, when placing your next NBA Finals wager, take this information into account.

If you like the favorite in Game 6, which is Boston at (-4), go ahead and take the Celtics to cover as opposed to playing it safe with the money line. If you like the Warriors, go big and take them to win outright.

This ensures a larger payout for the winning side.