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It’s time for week 4 of NFL betting.
There are once again, two 10+ point spreads, but a lot of tight ones thanks to several divisional matchups.
We’ve posted an attractive prop bet, so I don’t need to get into that.
Here are the bets I like for this week.
Los Angeles Chargers (-17) vs. Miami Dolphins
Good news for the Dolphins this week; they are not 20-point underdogs. It’s the small victories to take into account.
They will be facing off against another tough offensive opponent in the Chargers.
Although they lost to the Texans last week, the offense put on quite a show; Phillip River threw for 318 yards and two touchdowns, and Kennan Allen was on the receiving end of those touchdowns along with 183 receiving yards.
Miami noticeably played better than in their previous two games, but they cannot measure up to any teams in the league.
All three of their opponents have covered the spread this season. I don’t see why that won’t continue this week.
Tennesse Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (-5)
It’s easy to favor the Falcons at home; Matty Ice has a history of playing better in a dome, especially in Atlanta.
One of the biggest reasons why I like this spread is because of Marcus Mariota. His inability to move the ball the downfield has fans wondering how much longer he’ll be the quarterback in Tennessee.
Secondly, Atlanta has the eighth-best defense against the pass and 12th against the run.
The Falcons have the best opportunity to cover this spread.
Totals To Consider
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions (Total 53)
Last week the Chiefs, who are third in points-per-game, had the same total of 53 for their matchup against the number one offense in terms of points-per-game, the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs won this game 33-28.
This week, Kansas City goes into Detroit to play against 15th ranked team in that category.
The Lions do not have the offensive weapons to keep up with the defending MVP Patrick Mahomes and way he’s playing this season.
The Chiefs won’t need much to win this game, so I would take the under.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Total 44)
For Monday night we get AFC North rivals that are trying to pick up their first victory of the season.
On one side we have Cincinnati, who under rookie head coach Zac Taylor has put a spark into this offense; Andy Dalton is currently second in passing yards, and John Ross is third in receiving yards.
For Pittsburgh, last week they had their first game in Mason Rudolph era, and it did not go well.
In their loss to the 49ers, he gained 115 of his 146 passing yards on two plays: a 76-yard touchdown to JuJu Smith-Schuster and a 49-yard touchdown to Diontae Johnson.
Good news for both offenses is the opposing defenses ranked near the bottom in every category.
The Bengals and Steelers are 27th and 28th respectively in points-per-game. I like this game going over the 44 point total.
One Game To Parlay
Seattle Seahawks (-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals: Total 47
Russell Wilson is coming off one of best games of career; throwing for 406 yards, two touchdowns, and adding two more rushing touchdowns.
This week he gets another favorable matchup against the Cardinals who rank 25th in passing yards-per-game.
Kyler Murray has steadily improved since that fourth quarter in week 1 against Detroit. The last two games he has over a 60% completion rate and a QBR over 54.
The Seahawks will prove to be the better team, but I see a high scoring shootout. I like the spread against Seattle and over.
Dog Of The Day
Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Chicago Bears
These are two defensively fierce NFC North rivals. Both defenses rank in the top six in terms of points-per-game.
The Vikings have heavily relied on the run; their 61.3% rushing play percentage is tops in the league and running back Dalvin Cook is leading the league with 375 rushing yards this season.
The Vikings have found the offensive formula that works for them; the Bears still haven’t figured it out. Mitch Trubisky is only averaging 193 passing yards per game, and he’s 29th in total QBR.
They’re rushing attack isn’t any better as they ranked 21st in rushing yards-per-game.
With these factors in mind, the Vikings have the best chance to control this game and come away with a road victory.
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John “Supi” Supowitz is graduate from Quinnipiac University with a Masters in Sports Journalism. He is also currently a part of the Game Day Production Staff for a minor league baseball team. If you want to pique his interest, bring up the Yankees, pro-wrestling, or King of The Hill. You can follow him on Twitter @Imthatsupi85 and Instagram @Imthatsupi.
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