Here Are Our Week 11 NFL Picks Against The Spread
I’m sure you enjoyed last night’s game between Buffalo and Miami as much as I did. At least we can rejoice with a juicy schedule this weekend. There are four great games (see if you can figure them out) on Sunday and a few more watchable games thrown in. It’s a remarkable difference from last week.
Locks of the Week:
Seattle +2 over KANSAS CITY
The Seahawks may not be the team they were last year, but they’re still incredibly good at stopping the run. Given that’s the major component of the Chiefs’ offense, they’re going to struggle to move the ball as their receivers aren’t good enough to expose Seattle’s secondary. Travis Kelce will be the Chiefs’ only chance to move the ball and while that’s great for his fantasy perspective, it’s not great for their ability to win this game.
Kyle’s pick: Seattle
Denver -9.5 over ST. LOUIS
This may seems like a sucker’s pick, but call me a sucker. Denver showed last week (and has showed continuously this year) that they can dismantle bad teams very easily. The Rams’ are moving back to Shaun Hill in hopes of sparking their offense forgetting that he’s Shaun Hill. I’d be surprised if the Rams score more than 14 points. At least some players on the Rams have a sense of humor.
Kyle’s pick: Denver
New England +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Despite how good the Colts’ offense has looked this year, I’m not sure how you go against the Patriots given how they’ve looked like a machine since losing at Kansas City. I know this game isn’t in Foxboro, but I don’t expect it to be too different from when New England beat up Indianapolis in the playoffs last year.
Kyle’s pick: Indianapolis
Trap Games of the Week:
CHICAGO -2.5 over Minnesota
I really expected better from Chicago last week when they came out of the bye. Their performance on Sunday night, especially offensively, against their biggest rival couldn’t have been more disappointing. But Minnesota at least gives them a chance to get their running game going, which is the true key to how things should work in Chicago. If Cutler, however, threw four interceptions, would any of us be surprised?
Kyle’s pick: Chicago
Rest of the Picks:
Cincinnati +8 over NEW ORLEANS
For whatever reason, Andy Dalton doesn’t do well in primetime. Thankfully this game is at 1 p.m. The Saints just aren’t what they used to be for some reason and their home dominance was ended last week by San Francisco. People will overreact after Cincinnati’s play last week, but they can easily cover against a defense that’s almost as bad as they are.
Kyle’s pick: Cincinnati
CLEVELAND -3.5 over Houston
Arian Foster might not play. Ryan Mallett is getting the first start of his career. The Browns love to pound the running game and Houston’s ranked 27th in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders. That doesn’t sound like a good recipe for the Texans.
Kyle’s pick: Cleveland
Tampa Bay +8.5 over WASHINGTON
Washington’s pass defense, ranked 26th according to Football Outsiders, should never allow them to be more than a touchdown favorite. Tampa Bay’s wide receivers are clearly good enough to do damage in what should be a high scoring game. Take the over of 45.
Kyle’s pick: Tampa Bay
San Francisco -4 over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants have played six teams who currently have winning records. They’ve lost all those games by ten points or more. That’s all I need to say.
Kyle’s pick: San Francisco
CAROLINA +1 over Atlanta
Neither of these teams has a good defense or an offensive line, which means it’s going to be a free-for-all on Sunday. Atlanta’s got more offensive weapons, but sometimes things don’t make sense. This comes down to Carolina’s running game owning the clock and getting things done.
Kyle’s pick: Carolina
SAN DIEGO -10.5 over Oakland
The first game between these two was close, but expect San Diego to come out of the bye with a renewed determination. No one knows exactly what’s going on in Oakland and it’s very possible they could go this season without winning a game.
Kyle’s pick: Oakland
Detroit +1 over ARIZONA
The Drew Stanton era is back for Arizona and this week is not a good time for it to restart. Stanton struggles with accuracy and Detroit’s elite defense requires next level accuracy for it to be defeated. Arizona has only faced two elite passing offenses this year. Denver cut them up while winning easily (although Arizona’s QB situation was partly the reason) and Philadelphia did as well with a last second heave being the difference in the game.
Kyle’s pick: Detroit
Philadelphia +7 over GREEN BAY
I guess Vegas doesn’t believe in Mark Sanchez. Maybe it’s because they know he went to the inferior cheesesteak places in Philadelphia and should’ve at least gone to Tony Luke’s if he was trying to be mainstream. I see Philadelphia’s pass rush causing Green Bay problems, but Aaron Rodgers will get the ball out much quicker than Cam Newton did (or failed to do) last week. With a lot of points on the table, this game could go either way, so I’ll take the points in Sunday’s most entertaining game.
Kyle’s pick: Green Bay
Pittsburgh -6 over TENNESSEE
There’s no way Pittsburgh loses two in a row to bad teams after last week’s wake-up call at Met Life Stadium. Tennessee struggled to score against Baltimore’s depleted secondary, so they shouldn’t see much success even at home. Pittsburgh should get back to scoring at will in this one.
Kyle’s pick: Pittsburgh
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 9-4