The NFL regular season is finally here, as the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Baltimore Ravens in tonight’s season-opener. And, that means that one of the best water cooler topics in all of sports, ranking NFL quarterbacks is going to be back in full force in offices and group chats around country.
It’s hard to rank quarterbacks, because so many things influence their play. This list attempts to predict who will help their teams win the most this year while trying to take supporting cast and other variables out of it as much as possible. It’s an inexact science, for sure, but this list will hopefully hold up as the season goes on.
All 32 quarterbacks expected to start Week 1 are ranked from worst to first.
32. New York Giants QB Daniel Jones
The New York Giants gave Daniel Jones a $160 million extension following the 2022 season, a year where he threw just 15 touchdown passes. That contract naturally turned out to be a giant mistake, and now they’re stuck playing a guy this year whose best asset, his mobility, will be hampered by the torn ACL he suffered last year. Prior to the injury, he was absolutely dreadful. Expect the same this year.
31. New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backups in the National Football League. He certainly won’t lose you a ton of games. But, he won’t win you any, either. With the Patriots likely losing a lot of games, the veteran will soon be replaced by rookie top-five pick Drake Maye. Who knows, maybe if a team loses a starter midseason, Brissett. could be a trade target.
30. Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix
The Broncos surprised many by taking the former Auburn Tiger and Oregon Duck with the 12th-overall pick. Nix remade himself in his two years at Oregon after an up-and-down career following in his father’s footsteps at Auburn. He thrived in an Oregon offense that got the ball out quickly and near the line of scrimmage while allowing him to make plays with his legs. Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton thinks they’ve hit a home run here with Nix, but his inability to fit in throws down the field is going to severe limit the Denver offense.
29. Las Vegas Raiders QB Gardner Minshew
Minshew was pretty serviceable in Indianapolis last year, buoyed by a solid run game and great playcalling from Head Coach Shane Steichen. He will have neither of those things in Las Vegas, and will continue being more fun than good.
28. Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold
It’s now-or-never for former third-overall pick Sam Darnold. This will probably be the last chance at a starting job he will get if he doesn’t succeed this year. Thankfully for him, the pieces are in place for him to do so. He’s got good weapons, a solid offensive line, and an excellent playcaller and quarterback whisperer in Head Coach Kevin O’Connell. But, if it hasn’t clicked for him in his first six seasons, why would it in his seventh?
27. Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis
There’s no doubt the second-year man out of Penn State and Kentucky has potential. He’s got a rocket arm paired with impressive mobility that you thinking he could maybe grow into a true franchise quarterback. He may do that someday, but he’s still a bit raw this season to make a big impact. Expect plenty of ups and downs from Will Levis this season.
26. Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young
There’s no way around it, last year’s rookie season for first-overall pick Bryce Young was a total loss. It looked especially bad when you factor in that #2 pick CJ Stroud looked like a future Hall of Famer in Houston. But, the situation in Carolina was truly dire, and why it’s still not great, it has improved. New Head Coach Dave Canales worked wonders with Baker Mayfield last year, and there is plenty of talent to be cultivated when it comes to Bryce Young. But, quarterbacks his size rarely become stars, and that’s the concern in Carolina. Consider this a second rookie year.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson had a bounce back year from a terrible 2022, at least statistically, in his second and final season with the Broncos last year. Pittsburgh fans are hopeful that the same guy who was a perennial Pro-Bowler in Seattle is still in there. Who knows, maybe it is. But, despite the better statistical season last year, he rarely made the tough plays and the big-time throws that separates quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s a game manager, nothing more, nothing less. But, he thinks he’s much better than he actually is, and when the Pittsburgh offense struggles, things could unravel quickly.
24. Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith
Geno Smith still being a relevant quarterback in his 11th season is something not many people predicted after his disastrous tenure to start his career with the New York Jets. But, he had a breakout 2022 and followed it up with a passable 2023. He’s firmly the caliber of a low-end NFL starting quarterback, but he isn’t much more.
23. Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels transformed himself from a toolsy quarterback at Arizona State into a Heisman Trophy winner at LSU last season. He has all of the tools you’d want for a modern-day quarterback. He can be effective in the intermediate and deep passing game, is mobile, and has great creativity when the play breaks down. But, despite plenty of experience in college, Daniels is still unpolished as a passer. He will have moments and games of brilliance for the Commanders, and the second-overall pick will also have games where he looks very much like a rookie.
22. Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson
We didn’t get much of Anthony Richardson last year, as a concussion and shoulder injury kept him out of all but four games. But, what we did see of him showed flashes of a quarterback that could be really effective in the league. He boasts arguably the league’s strongest arm and top-tier running ability, which is a really enticing package. Ultimately, he’s made less than 20 starts since high school, and has a ways to go as a passer. But, he’s got the right coach in Shane Steichen to make him more than a productive fantasy football quarterback this year and into one that is actively helping the Colts win games.
21. Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson
When the Cleveland Browns traded for Deshaun Watson ahead of the 2022 season, they were hoping they’d get the star quarterback he was in Houston before an alleged sexual misconduct scandal ruined his career there. He has not been that guy whatsoever. A suspension and injuries have kept him to twelve mostly ineffective games the last two years. There’s nothing physically that should be stopping Watson from returning to form. He’s got all of the tools of a solid NFL starting quarterback and could become that again. But, it seems to be pretty mental for him at this point post-scandal. If he can get things figured out upstairs, he could lead a loaded Browns team to the promised land. If not, he may not get another year as the starter there.
20. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr
The form he showed at times with the Raiders is likely unattainable for long stretches of time for the Fresno State alum. But, Derek Carr would still be an upgrade for plenty of teams on this with steady play and accurate passing. Ultimately, his lack of big-play ability and mobility limits him. While he will be steady, the Saints need more than steady this year if they want to find a way back into the playoffs.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
Mayfield was in a similar position last season to the one Sam Darnold is in this year, needing a good year to re-establish himself as a valuable starting quarterback in the NFL. Mayfield did just that, leading the Buccaneers to the NFC Divisional Round and making the Cleveland Browns surely regret casting him off for Deshaun Watson. He’s still a pretty solid playmaker and is accurate enough, though decision-making can get him in trouble at times. The biggest challenge for Mayfield this year will be the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who helped save his career.
18. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
At times in his five-year career, Murray has looked like a true superstar. But, those occasions are overshadowed by a lot of less-than-stellar play and injury issues. The good news is he looked pretty solid after returning from a 2022 knee injury late last year. At his best, he’s a playmaking maestro that can move the ball down the field in a variety of ways. At his worst, he’s running himself into sacks, turning the ball over, and getting injured due to his small frame. The range of outcomes are pretty wide for Kyler Murray.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
Last year was a definite step back for Trevor Lawrence, who looked like he was on the verge of breaking into the sport’s elite quarterbacks at the end of the 2022 season. He’s still missing too many routine throws, throws that he made consistently at Clemson but hasn’t yet in the NFL. But, all of the prototypical skills for Lawrence to become the Tier 1 quarterback that people thought he would be out of college are still there. The question is whether he can put it all together this year after signing a huge extension in the offseason.
16. Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams
The 2024 NFL Draft first-overall pick is set to break a dubious Bears streak this year. As long he stays healthy, he will become the first Chicago quarterback in history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season, the only team in the NFL to not have a 4,000-yard passer. There is no reason that Caleb Williams can’t be right near the very top of this list in a few years, and could have a similar year to the season CJ Stroud did last season. As long as he plays within himself, the physical talent and mental processing skills form the best quarterback prospect the league has seen in a while, possibly since Andrew Luck.
15. San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy might have been the most polarizing player in the NFL last year. The advanced stats loved him as the most efficient passer in the league last year, one that was completing plenty of balls in the intermediate and deep passing game. But, the question was how much of that was a loaded 49ers offense with an all-time great playcaller in Kyle Shanahan at his disposal and how much of that was actually Brock Purdy. A shaky postseason showed that it may have been more the former than the latter. But, he was close to winning MVP last year before a late season stumble against the Ravens, and he could theoretically have that year again.
14. Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins
Don’t let the Vikings W-L record in Cousins’ starts last year fool you. He was playing possibly the best football of his career before going down with a torn Achilles during his eighth game of the year. The big-game concerns have not been resolved, but Cousins has shown repeatedly he can lead really good passing attacks. He’s got the weapons to do the same in Atlanta, as long as the torn Achilles doesn’t hobble him too much this year, he will do just that.
13. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford
It seems like many in the NFL ecosphere forgot about Matthew Stafford as one of the game’s better quarterbacks soon after he led the Rams to a Super Bowl title three seasons ago. But, despite battling injuries last season, that’s exactly what the strong-armed veteran was. Stafford has always been able to get the ball down the field, but Rams Head Coach Sean McVay has made him better on the finer points of the position that he occasionally struggled with in Detroit. Expect another rock-solid season from Matthew Stafford, assuming he can stay healthy.
12. Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff
It seems serendipitous that Jared Goff comes in one spot ahead of Matthew Stafford, the quarterback he was included as filler for in a blockbuster trade prior to the 2021 season. But, Goff has enjoyed a career renaissance in Detroit. He’s been incredibly productive and has helped their young weapons along. Now, he’s got an absolutely loaded offense around him, both up front and at the skill spots. If you’re looking for a dark horse MVP candidate, Jared Goff is your guy.
11. Miami Dolpins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa needed to stay healthy last year, and he did just that, putting himself into MVP contention for much of the year. His ability to get the ball out accurately and on time in Mike McDaniel’s system is a huge asset to the Miami Dolphins, and he threw the deep ball well last year. But, late in the season, teams started to take a lot of the easy stuff away from Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense. That caused him to struggle a bit down the stretch, and it remains to be seen if he actually has the arm talent to become a year-in, year-out upper-echelon starter in the NFL.
10. Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love
For much of last season, Jordan Love was closer to the bottom ten quarterbacks than the top ten. But, the last six weeks of the season plus the postseason showed that he could very well be the next great Packers quarterback. The physical traits have always been there, and he finally got used to the speed of the game and how fast he needed to process in the NFL to be successful late in the season. Expect Jordan Love to build off that season and establish himself as a true star quarterback in the league.
9. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
The last time we saw Dak Prescott play football, he threw two devastating pick sixes in a blowout playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers. But, that overshadowed arguably the best season of his career that saw him finish second in the MVP voting behind Lamar Jackson. The Cowboys leaned on the passing game a lot last year, and likely will even more this year. Prescott will have to play at a high level for the Cowboys to have success, but he’s shown in the past he’s up to the challenge.
8. Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Last season was a lost year not just for Justin Herbert but for the entire Los Angeles Chargers as then-head coach Brandon Staley’s tenure came apart at the seams. Ultimately, the player that plenty considered a top-five quarterback heading into last season is stil there. He is a physical specimen at the positoin and checks every single box when it comes to playing quarterback in the league. While he might not have the weapons around him to get it done this year, Justin Herbert has the ability to have a breakout MVP season at any point. Very few players in the league can say that.
7. New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers
This is probably the most controversial ranking of the bunch. There are plenty of reasons to doubt Aaron Rodgers. Even his 2022 season with the Packers showed a slight step back from his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. He tore his Achilles four snaps into the Jets season last year, and will be 40-years old for most of the season this year. Plus, it would be fair to question his focus on football given his off-field activities. But, this is one of the best five-or-so quarterbacks in league history, he will likely have a chip on his shoulder, and could return to elite status once again. While I’m lower on the Jets than I am on Rodgers, he could very well finish the season as a top-ten quarterback.
6. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts’ season closely mirrored a 2023 Eagles season that saw the team start out 10-1 and lose six of seven games to end the season, including an embarrassing playoff loss to the Buccaneers. He wasn’t the ultra-efficient destroyer he was in 2022, but much of that can be laid at the feet of now-fired offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. Expect a healthy and rejuvenated Jalen Hurts to have a bounce back season this year and possibly contend for MVP if things go well in Philly.
5. Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud
CJ Stroud was already considered a high-level passing prospect after his career at Ohio State. But, he exceeded everyone’s expectations with a phenomenal rookie season that had him featured in the MVP talk at points last year as he led the Texans to the AFC Divisional Round after being projected by many to be one of the league’s worst teams. It’s too early to annoint him as a surefire Hall-of-Famer someday, but there is no reason he shouldn’t be that at some point based on last year’s rookie campagin. While his arm strength is probably only slightly above league average, every other passing trait is pretty close to elite. Plus, his weapons have been upgraded. The CJ Stroud MVP talk won’t sneak up on people this year if the Texans play well.
4. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
The 2023 NFL MVP had arguably the best passing season of his career last year to go along with his generational talent as a runner at the quarterback position. But, the passing regressed in the playoffs, leading to a devastating AFC Championship loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Ultimately, he is still the league’s most dangerous playmaker at the position and can carry a team. But, losing three starting offensive linemen is a cause for concern when it comes to not just Lamar Jackson’s productivity but durability for this upcoming season.
3. Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow was never truly healthy in 2023, and we saw just how much he means to the Bengals offense when he was out. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a fully healthy Burrow, and while the Bengals are rationing his throws during practice, I don’t expect that to effect his on-field play. And, when he’s healthy, maybe no other quarterback in the league can deconstruct a defense from the pocket like Burrow can. He has elite timing, accuracy, and processing with the ability to layer in throws down the field. He’s a joy to watch play, and you should be excited to watch him on Sundays this fall.
2. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen should’ve been the NFL MVP last season, as no player had to do more for their team than Allen did. Yes, the turnover numbers were high, but for much of the season the Bills plan on offense could be described as “let Josh make plays”. Somehow, he made enough plays to keep them afloat until they fired Ken Dorsey and replaced him with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady in the second-half of the season. Once he had a solid playcaller, he caught fire playing at a high level that few in the league can truly reach. You will always have to take the bad when it comes to Josh Allen, but the good is incredibly good and outweighs the bad significantly. A defensive stop here and a different coaching decision there and his reputation would be much different.
1. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Whether it was after his fifth, sixth, or seventh Super Bowl win, the GOAT conversation was settled on Tom Brady according to nearly everyone. Patrick Mahomes is somehow on the verge of making it a conversation once again before his 30th birthday. Last year was far from his best statistically. But, his ability to keep a Chiefs offense devoid of weapons afloat and then getting them to excel in the playoffs en route to a second-straight Super Bowl has already cemented him as the second-greatest quarterback of all-time. When we talk about someone who checks all the boxes, he double-checks them all. There are no weaknesses in his game, and he’s a true quarterbacking savant, the kind you would’ve created on Madden as a kid. If he can lead the Chiefs to an unprecedented third-straight Super Bowl victory in February, the debate of Brady v. Mahomes will truly be on. Expect Mahomes and a much-improved group of weapons buoyed by Andy Reid’s playcalling to do just that.