Here Are Our 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread


Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

I made SportsCenter last night. I’m as shocked as you are. I never expected to make it on the show. My athletic career never took me there and my dream of running a sports team hasn’t gotten to the Promised Land yet. The dream, however, was accomplish thanks to read @RealDanNorton, who sent me a video of him and his friends burning down a stick figure sign of Rex Ryan in the MetLife Stadium. (I assume it was him and his friends. He could’ve just been taking video of some other crazy drunk people.) He tweeted it at me thinking I would appreciate the video. I surely did, so I RTed it with a “Haha. Good Stuff.” Next thing you know we’re on the 11 p.m. SportsCenter with the Tweet and the video.

You can find the evidence here. Kudos to @RealDanNorton because this was totally his show. I’m just riding his coattails. Now let’s get back to work.

Locks of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA -6 over Miami

The Eagles came out of the bye looking like they found their offense. Miami’s got less of a pass rush than Dallas does. Miami comes in as the 24thbest pass rush in the league according to Football Outsiders and their 16 sacks on the season back it up. Miami had a nice return to form against two stinky teams, but they’re showing up a step behind now that they’re playing real teams again.

J.Camm’s Pick: Philly

Chicago +7.5 over ST. LOUIS

I love the Bears this year. I’m not sure why. They should’ve covered against Minnesota if they didn’t handle the final two minutes so poorly. They took care of San Diego last weekend as an underdog. They covered the three games before the Minnesota game. That makes them 4-1 against the spread in the last five and that’s something worth noticing. The offense with Jay Cutler just looks good enough to score even on St. Louis and it helps that the Bears’ pass blocking is 7th best according to FO.

J.Camm’s Pick:Chicago

OAKLAND -3 over Minnesota

I’m going to keep going against Minnesota. I still don’t believe they’re as good as they’re 6-2 record states. Oakland showed some real balls in coming back from down 14 to push Pittsburgh to overtime last week. This isn’t your older brother’s Oakland Raiders. It’s going to be a reality check for Minnesota’s 22ndranked defense according to FO this weekend.

J.Camm’s Pick: Minnesota
Trap Game of the Week:

TAMPA BAY -1 over Dallas

Everyone seems to be jumping on the Cowboys because of the name brand of both teams in this game. Dallas has not won a game since Tony Romo got injured. Tampa Bay has won two of its last four and Jameis Winston is showing up like a real NFL quarterback. I just don’t think Dallas is that good. Maybe Im wrong, but we’ll see that on Sunday.

J.Camm’s Pick:Dallas (Because apparently I’ve been doing drugs)

Rest of the Picks:

Jacksonville +6 over BALTIMORE

Baltimore’s pass defense isn’t good enough to be giving six points to Blake Bortles. (It also can’t stop Ray Lewis from releasing bad rap music apparently.) Yes, you read that right. This is Blake effing Bortles. This is the same Blake Bortles who looked awful in Week 1. Things have turned around as now Jacksonville has the 12th most effective pass offense in the league according to FO and puts up 258 passing yards per game. Every game Baltimore has played in this year has been decided by one score with their two wins being by three points, so tell me again why I’d lay six points with them?

J.Camm’s Pick: Jacksonville (we both must be fucking nuts)

Cleveland +5.5 over PITTSBURGH

The same goes for Pittsburgh as goes for Baltimore. The Steelers are giving up 273 passing yards per game and are missing their starting quarterback. (I’m assuming Big Ben isn’t playing in this one, but maybe he will surprise us in an alley…I mean on the field.) Josh McCown gets the Browns offense moving in a way Johnny Football cannot. (I’m pretty sure McCown can’t get the girls though.) McCown can cover these points.

J.Camm’s Pick: Pitt 

Carolina -5.5 over TENNESSEE

This number stinks a little bit. How is Tennessee not dogged by more against the best team in the NFC. It’s a letdown spot for Carolina, but I just can’t take Tennessee. It’d be different if the Titans hadn’t won last week, but they could be a little hungover themselves. The under of 44 is the play here.

J.Camm’s Pick: Carolina

New Orleans -1 over WASHINGTON

Neither team can defend the pass so this game should play out as a Daily Fantasy Sports wet dream. I’m sure the Saints could show up like a wet blanket after last week’s loss and the news of Sean Payton’s likely departure in the offseason, but I think the team has enough veterans to be honest. Kirk Cousin won’t like what happens at the end of this one. At least they’re still having fun in Washington.

J.Camm’s Pick:New Orleans

Detroit +13 over GREEN BAY

This is clearly a get well game for Green Bay, but I think Detroit’s offense will look a lot better coming out of the bye week. They’re simplifying the offense and doing things that make Matthew Stafford more effective. The offense has too many weapons to be as bad as it was to start the season. Green Bay’s defense has fallen apart in recent weeks, to the opportunity is definitely there for Detroit to cover this number.

J.Camm’s Pick: Detroit

DENVER -5.5 over Kansas City

Let’s be honest: everyone outside of Denver hopes Peyton Manning sits this game out due to injury. If for nothing else, doing so would allow us to see if Brock Osweiler is any good. Denver got back in last week’s game, but the fact it went down early was clearly a result of Manning’s inability to lead the offense. It doesn’t help their offensive line and running backs can’t support their old noodle-armed man. Thankfully the Chiefs offense lacks the dynamics that Indianapolis used against Denver last week, so this should be Denver’s game.

J.Camm’s Pick: Kansas City

New England -7.5 over N.Y. GIANTS

I’m now 8-1 ATS when picking Giants games. This game historically would play into the typical “the Giants play great as underdogs” theory, but not so fast my friend. The Giants may have Jason Pierre-Paul back, but their pass defense continues to be a sieve. It’s 26th in the league according to FO, which is exactly the recipe the Patriots need to win this game by double-digits. You think the Patriots don’t remember who ruined their last perfect season. I know I do…

J.Camm’s Pick: New England

Arizona +3 over SEATTLE

The 12th man just isn’t the same 12th man. Carolina came into town and won this year. Dallas came into town last year. Dare I saw the Seattle fans are getting a little spoiled with success? It’ll be interesting to see what Arizona can put together offensively in this one, but Seattle will have their own problems with Arizona’s pass rush. First one to 20 wins this game, but will we even get that high? Take the under.

J.Camm’s Pick: Seattle

CINCINNATI -10.5 over Houston

We’re done worrying about Andy Dalton in night games. We’re not done worrying about Houston’s defense. It’s below league average against both the pass and the run. Can we even still notice J.J. Watt on the field? The season is over in Houston, but it’s just getting started in Cincinnati.

J.Camm’s Pick: Cincinnati

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-7

Season: 66-62-5

Locks: 18-7

Survivor: 7-2

J.Camm: 62-65-5 (This week is do or die. No way to come back from a third week of terrible picks in a row. I blames the teams, mostly. If those cunts played harder and coached better, I wouldn’t be in this situation. Pricks.)

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