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Super Bowl LV is being called “The G.O.A.T. vs. Baby G.O.A.T.” Tom Brady will be competing in his astonishing 10th Super Bowl against Patrick Mahomes who is trying to lead his Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl wins, which would be the first time that’s been done since Brady won back-to-back with the Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
Betting on the Super Bowl has become just as big of a spectacle as the game itself; not only are there countless amounts of in-game betting options, but you can bet on props such as the length of the National Anthem, the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, and how many commercials will feature a dog. My guess is 11.
We’ll breakdown the game and who has the best chance to cover, the best in-game prop bets, and who could come away with MVP honors.
Best Prop Bets
Tyreek Hill Over 93.5 receiving yards (-110)
Hill had an absurd 269 receiving yards in the Week 12 matchup against Tampa Bay. If the total was at 200 yards, I might lean towards the under, but with the Bucs being 20th in passing defense this season, Hill has a good chance to see the century mark.
Tom Brady over 0.5 rushing yards (+145)
Brady had a career-low six rushing yards this season but he also recorded his third season with three rushing touchdowns. If it’s 4th & 1, Brady is running it in which I think he’ll do at some point in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 going into halftime (+155)
We’ve seen the Chiefs fall behind in playoff games; it happened in the AFC playoff game two weeks ago and in the Super Bowl last year. We could very well see Kansas City losing between watching The Weeknd’s performance.
Last year the Cheifs dumped orange Gatorade over Andy Reid, this year I will putting my wager Yellow/Green/Lime (+500).
Best Game Bet
Now for the game in itself. The Buccaneers have been able to put up points, but the defense has struggled; they allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for 346 yards and three touchdowns, and two weeks prior allowed third-string quarterback Taylor Heinicke to throw over 304 yards with a passing and rushing touchdown, the Chiefs will be the best offense out of all of them.
Tampa Bay has been able to shut down the run game but has struggled against the pass, and abandoning the run is something Kansas City has done quite a bit this season. Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles isn’t going to stop both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, he’ll have to pick his poison.
By the way, the game in which Hill had 200 receiving yards in the first quarter was the matchup against the Buccaneers in Week 12.
As we speak about the Chiefs’ offense, we can’t ignore the defense that has played well. In the AFC Championship, that defensive line featuring Frank Clark and Chris Jones was able to put pressure on a running quarterback like Josh Allen by rushing just four, this could prove to be a tough task for an immobile Brady. Allowing more players to drop back in coverage will help against Tampa Bay’s array of elite receivers, preventing Brady from getting the ball out
Also, remember Steve Spagnola is the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator. He held the same position when the Giants beat Tom Brady in Super Bowls XLIII and XLVI.
With all of this, can you still bet against Brady? People have done it all throughout his career and he’s managed to shut everyone up and prove he’s the best. This season the 43-year-old put to bed the doubts of a decline; he had some of his best numbers, which includes over 4,600 passing yards for the first time since 2013 and over 40 passing touchdowns for the first time since 2007. If Brady can step up like he’s done so many times in these big spots, it’s hard to doubt he won’t hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the seventh time.
The key on the defensive side of the ball for Tampa Bay is whether or not they can contain the passing game enough to break Kansas City’s rhythm. The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards for the second-consecutive year and held the Chiefs to 87 rushing yards in their Week 12 matchup. With Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, who had a combined five sacks in the NFC Championship game, coming around the edge, and Chiefs’ tackle Eric Fisher not in this game, Mahomes could very well see some pressure. Tampa Bay will make Kansas City one-sided and if they can hold them from making big plays, they have a shot.
Ultimately, the Buccaneers would have to play mistake-free football to have a chance to beat the Chiefs. There’s a very good chance Kansas City could trail in this game; we saw them come back from a 21-point deficit in the divisional round last year and down 10 points with just over six minutes left in last year’s Super Bowl. We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes do the things that Brady’s done.
What it all comes down to is the Chiefs can easily exploit the struggling pass defense and their defensive line has been able to get to the quarterback without blitzing. Kansas City turned it on at the right time and even though it was 14-2 this season, it’s playing their best football right now while we’ve seen Tampa Bay make some mistake during the playoffs. The GOAT could be passing the baton to the Baby GOAT.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Best MVP Odds
Recent trends say the MVP will be a quarterback. Just four non-quarterbacks have earned the reward in the last 14 Super Bowls, and when you have two greats like Mahomes and Brady playing, it’s hard to not think the winning team’s QB will get the reward. I’ll go with Patrick Mahomes (-105).
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