Happy Friday everyone! With the Daily Fantasy Sports industry growing at a rapid pace, more and more people are getting in on the action over at DraftKings.
My name is Kevin, and I’m ranked in the top 10% of current players in all daily fantasy sports. I mainly focus on “cash games” which are head to heads, 50/50’s and double-ups. In these games, you look to beat half the field. In a 50/50 for example, if there are 100 people in the tournament, the top 50 in the tournament all make $.80 per dollar risked. For example, in a $1 50/50, if I finish in the top 50% of that tournament, I get $1.80 back. It’s a great way to slowly build a bankroll, and get to learn how to play. I highly recommend playing in some of these games if you are new to DFS.
Below are a few of the players that I like for this weekend in the NFL. Of course, things can change with injuries leading up to kickoff, so I highly recommend staying on top of injury news this weekend. A star player being declared out unexpectedly can certainly open up some value around the league. If you have any questions about DFS, or some players this weekend, feel free to hit me up on twitter @kevdudz, and I’ll do my best to respond.
Matt Ryan- Atlanta Falcons $6700
Leading the 4-0 Falcons in a showdown against the Redskins, Ryan comes in with 4 straight solid showings. So far this year, Ryan’s lowest output has been 14.14 DK points, which came last week in a blowout win over the Texans, in which he barely needed to throw in the 2nd half. Prior to that, Ryan had games of 23, 21, and 18. Facing a Redskins defense that is stout against the run, Ryan should be in line for an excellent outing. The Redskins are giving up the most Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG) to Quarterbacks this year. Ryan is a great play in your “cash games” (50/50’s, H2H, Doubleups) because of his safe floor, and an excellent GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool aka Tournament) play, especially when paired up with Julio Jones or Leonard Hankerson.
Drew Brees- New Orleans Saints- $7200
Although slightly more expensive as Ryan, Brees comes in as another model of consistency, which is essential when putting together your cash game lineups. Brees only had 13 points against TB in Week 2 before getting hurt, but also has games of 25 and 20 in the two games that he finished. This week, he gets a matchup with a putrid Eagles secondary, in a game that Vegas projects to have one of the highest scores of the week. With the Eagles playing well against the run, I’m projecting around 40 passing attempts from Brees, which should be enough to provide us with an extremely safe floor for fantasy points.
Sam Bradford- Philadelphia Eagles- $6000
On the other side of this game, comes Sam Bradford. Bradford hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency this year, and because of that, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend rolling him out in your cash games. I do however; recommend taking a flier on him in a GPP. It seems much of the public is disgusted with the Eagles play, and I can understand why. Luckily, we aren’t looking for wins and losses, we need fantasy points. Bradford, although didn’t play well enough last week to win, actually had a great fantasy day, finishing with 24.2 points vs the Redskins, after connecting on a few long plays, and three touchdowns. Pairing him in a GPP with Jordan Mathews could pay off in a big way.
Tom Brady- New England Patriots- $7800
Brady’s back and he’s on a mission this year. His floor is extremely high, his FPPG are one of the best in the league, and Vegas predicts his team to score the most points this week. It’s a dream matchup vs Dallas. Brady is about as safe as you can get for your cash game quarterback, and obviously offers tremendous upside in GPP’s paired with Edelman or Gronk.
RB — Top Tier
Le’Veon Bell- Pittsburgh Steelers- $8500
Bell is about as safe of an option as you can pick this week. With Michael Vick at the helm, the Steelers are going to lean on Bell to do as much as he can for them. Last week, in Vick’s first start, Bell had a whopping 29 touches. Expect more of the same this week, as Bell will be fed 20+ times rushing, and is a vital target in the passing game. With his exceptional pass-catching skills, on a PPR site like DraftKings, Bell is an outstanding play. Although pricey, Bell is as safe as it gets this week, and provides great upside to being the highest scoring player of the week. Coupled with some value plays, Bell should be a staple for everyone.
Jamaal Charles- Kansas City Chiefs- $7800
Charles has been another model of consistency this year as well, never scoring less than 20 fantasy points in a game. Coming in as a 9 point favorite over the Bears at home, this game sets up for the Chiefs to have a solid lead, and want to burn some clock in the second half by feeding Charles the rock. Combined with his excellent pass-catching skills as well, Charles is set up for a big game. Him and Bell are 1 and 1A at running back for me this week.
Dion Lewis- New England Patriots- $4800
If you want to grab Bell or Charles, you’re going to have to find some value at some other positions. This is where we can grab Lewis. Lewis is averaging 5 receptions and 60 yards a game receiving as a running back, and is still seeing around 10 rushing attempts per game as well. Having the ability to do both is extremely helpful for us, as we can reasonably expect Lewis to touch the ball anywhere between 15-20 times per game. In a game where Vegas expects the Patriots to get in the end zone multiple times, it’s reasonable to expect 100 all-purpose yards from Lewis, along with a solid chance of hitting pay dirt.
TJ Yeldon- Jacksonville Jaguars- $4400
For an under the radar pick, I’m looking at TJ Yeldon this week. The Buccaneers are in the top ten of fantasy points allowed to running backs this year, and the Jaguars are only a 2.5 point underdog, which is rare. This game sets up for the Jags to finally not be losing by a lot and have to throw the ball all day. This means we can reasonably expect them to lean on Yeldon a bit more than they already have. I fully expect Yeldon to touch the ball at a minimum of 20 times, and he’s got an excellent chance of punching one into the end zone. At $4400 that’s a great value.
Julio Jones- Atlanta Falcons- $9200
Easily the best wide receiver in the league through 4 weeks, Jones gets the outstanding matchup as we mentioned with Matt Ryan this week vs a banged up Redskins secondary. Missing at least one starter in Deangelo Hall, Jones should have his way on Sunday. He had an the off day last Sunday, but that was mostly because of game flow, as the Falcons raced out to an early lead, and didn’t have to throw much. Julio’s got a great matchup, but a hefty price tag.
Odell Beckham- New York Giants- $9000
He’s been good, but he has yet to have the breakout game we have been looking for. This week he faces a depleted 49er secondary, that’s been getting lit up this year. With Victor Cruz still out, an inconsistent Ruben Randle starting opposite of him, and a running game that is best described as average at best, I expect the Giants game plan to be to feed ODB early and often.
Keenan Allen- San Diego Chargers- $7200
Allen has had two massive games, one pretty good, and one disastrous game so far. I think we are looking at another big one this Sunday. With Stevie Johnson most likely to be out, Allen should get as many targets as he can handle. The Steelers secondary hasn’t been anything special, and based on the volume of targets he should see, I feel confident in Allen reaching at least 6 receptions and 100 yards.
Willie Snead- New Orleans Saints- $3000
My value pick this week will be Snead. Each week, he’s seen his snap count increase, along with his targets. Priced at the absolute bare minimum, we really only need about 8 points for him to pay that price off, which he has done the last three weeks. With his steadily improving play, a high predicted total for the Saints from Vegas, and facing a putrid Eagles secondary, I think this is a great spot to take a chance on a minimum priced player. Using Snead will give you a great opportunity to fit some of the higher priced studs we discussed earlier.
TE’s to consider: Rob Gronkowski $7500, Martellus Bennett $5000 (especially if Alshon Jeffrey sits), Charles Clay $4100 (especially if Sammy Watkins sits), and Owen Daniels $2700 (risky, but the Raiders are awful at covering the TE position.