The “great” Johnny Manziel once said, “I am going to enjoy my time off. I’m very about football and very about my job, which doesn’t get reported or won’t get reported, but I am going to enjoy my time off. That’s what I think everybody else does and that’s what I should do.”
This, of course, was back in 2014 – way before he was caught wearing a fake mustache and blond wig so he could party “incognito” in Vegas, before he allegedly hit ex-girlfriend Colleen Crowley so hard she ruptured her eardrum, and of course before his agent(s) dumped him. In other words, it appears that Johnny Manziel surely did enjoy his time off, even if it led to the downward spiral many of us have come to at least semi-enjoy watching. We’ve seen him make it rain on strippers in Miami, allegedly smoke weed at a nightclub and have a massive Brofest with Scott Disick in Miami – but.
But.
This was all before the Cleveland Browns eventually dropped him in March. Partying like Johnny Manziel not only takes a liver made of steel, but a bottomless pit for a wallet – something that presumably no longer exists for Manziel. Two separate agents have not only dropped him in the span of three months, but every single sponsorship he had has cut ties with him. Snickers? Gone. Muscle Pharm? Toast. Nike? HA, as if Nike would keep ties with the guy accused of trashing a rental property and being discovered passed-out near bags of drugs. Manziel may have been able to fund his lavish partying while still in the NFL, but after being dumped by almost literally everyone? How long can he keep it up?
To answer that question, you’d first have to know what Manziel’s finances look like. Assuming he isn’t getting any money from his parents (his father has been quoted as saying “I truly believe if they can’t get him help, he won’t live to see his 24th birthday,” so it’s fair to make an argument that his parents are at least in the process of cutting him off) and that the majority of his personal wealth has come from his salary while playing for the Browns, Manziel is currently sitting on a total of $7,707,913.00.
Pretending that’s the only money he has though is, for lack of a better word, stupid. Not only did he manage to swing a Snickers commercial before his legendary meltdown…
…but he even snagged a spot alongside LeBron James in a McDonald’s advertisement:
Unfortunately for us, the amount of money athletes make in endorsement deals typically does not get disclosed to the public, however that doesn’t mean we can’t take a good, hearty educated guess at it.
If you’re interested in reading how we came to the following conclusions…
Estimated Endorsement Money – $1,450,000
Estimated Cleveland Browns Money – $7,707,913
Estimated Money Spent January – March – $432,401.44
…then feel free to click HERE to skip to the explanation. If you’re willing to simply take our word for it, then don’t bother. We’re trustworthy people, right? And besides, the best anyone can really do is estimate – you can track his outings, make guesses as to how much he spent, calculate airfare costs, etc. – but what about financial investments? No one knows for sure except for Johnny Football himself.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t talk to someone who’s qualified to make estimations on what sort of investments someone of Manziel’s financial status would have. Only an idiot would keep all their money in savings and not dump at least a few hundred grand of it into Wall Street, and say what you want about Manziel – that he’s incompetent, immature, an alcoholic, a 23-year-old who now vaguely resembles a homeless man in his 30’s – but is he stupid? MAYBE. But are the people he’s surrounded himself with stupid? NAH. Kid’s gotta have at least a few top-of-the-line Certified Financial Planners™ on his payroll, which means that in order to find out what kind of returns he’s making on his investments, we’re going to have to talk to a Certified Financial Planner™ ourselves.
Enter: Bryan Blackburn, a CFP® with the Lowrie & Carney Wealth Management Group of Wells Fargo Advisors. While Bryan has never worked with Johnny Manziel personally, being a Certified Financial Planner™ means he’s passed a rigorous examination process requiring knowledge in investments, risk management, insurance, income taxes, estate planning and more. Based off the aforementioned estimations (that you can click HERE to read how we arrived at) and having experience working with persons of similar wealth to Manziel, Bryan was able to estimate how long it would take for Johnny Manziel to run out of money.
“The total expenses over that three month period was approximately $432,401, and so my goal was to try and assume what would be an appropriate dollar amount of spending over a one year timeframe,” Bryan explains. “If that $432,401 represents a three month timeframe, if you multiply by four that would give you roughly an annual spending of $1.733 million dollars a year.”
For our purposes, this seems fair – part of the reason that number is so high is because his estimated spending increased dramatically in March, right after he was cut from the Browns. As we’ve all seen, Manziel didn’t take time in April to work on his sobriety (that appearance he made in a ball pit at Coachella comes to mind), however, for all we know he may try to get his act together sometime in the summer, causing his spending to once again reduce. Assuming he spends $1.733 million a year, in that case, balances out any discrepancies where Manziel could spend a month in rehab (causing his spending to go down), followed by a bender the month he’s released (causing his spending to go back up).
“Someone like Manziel, at his age, I would argue would have his investments in a moderately aggressive portfolio, if not an aggressive portfolio,” Blackburn continues. “But I think it’s fair to say that he is in a moderately aggressive portfolio where 80% of his wealth would be invested in stocks or equities, and the other 20% would be invested in fixed income for bonds. From a high-level standpoint that 80/20 portfolio is a moderately aggressive portfolio that seems to be in line with someone at his age, but also in line with someone who has that much money…based on Wells Fargo’s return assumptions, I think a reasonable after-tax return would be 4.76%.”
Using a time value of money calculation, Bryan was able to determine how long it would take Johnny Manziel, at his current rate of spending, to bottom out to exactly zero dollars:
“When I go through that calculation, if we assume that his wealth is $10.608 million, that he’s spending $1.733 million a year, that his after-tax rate of return is 4.76% and that he will continue his spending pattern until he reaches zero dollars, the result is approximately 7.4, or seven years and approximately five months.”
Assuming that our estimations and Bryan’s calculations are correct, that means that 23-year-old Johnny Manziel will be completely destitute by the time he’s 30, a time when most people are finally starting to get their shit together. Instead of looking to settle down and buy a house, it’s possible that Manziel could become one of the drifters who like to hang out on the shores of the Hudson river.
We would be remiss, however, if we only consulted with Bryan about Manziel’s finances — which is why we contacted Ward Minton, a Chartered Retirement Planning counselor for Morgan Stanley. Ward used a Monte Carlo simulation in his calculation, a program that takes a look at all of Manziel’s net worth, annual budget, any guaranteed income he may have left (which he does not), then takes all those numbers and runs it through 10,000 different market trials. From best-case scenario to worst case scenario, the Monte Carlo simulation tells us in what percentage of those trials was Manziel able to meet his financial goals (not going completely broke) going forward.
“In literally not a single trial is he able to keep growing his net worth and keep living this lifestyle,” Ward explains.
Assuming that Manziel has an investment return rate of 7.5% (which is a “pretty generous investment return, especially in today’s environment,” Ward notes), by the end of 2019 he should be nearing the end of his cashflow. The “Funds Used Retirement” category is that $1.733 million we assume that Manziel is spending yearly, whereas the “Investment Earnings” column is the amount of money he’s receiving in return for investing his $10,607.913 in stocks.
“Based on age and timeframe, I estimated where he [Manziel] would be invested. That would be a very, very heavily invested portfolio. About 75-80% in the stock market with little else counteracting that,” Ward explains.
As you can see from the spreadsheet, if Johnny Manziel keeps up his rate of spending and gets lucky with a 7.5% investment return rate, he will go completely broke within the next three years. This is, of course, assuming that Manziel has the full $10,607,913 still available — he most likely does not, which means that he could potentially go broke even quicker than both Bryan and Ward estimate.
Of course, no one truly knows how much money Manziel has in the bank except for him – but considering all the shenanigans he’s been wrapping himself up in since the end of March, it’s safe to say that Johnny Football is in for a rude financial awakening in the near future.
Special thanks to both Bryan Blackburn and Ward Minton, and as a reminder if you’d like to see the detailed breakdown of how we landed on these numbers click HERE.”