So much for picking the underdog last night because choosing the favorite was too obvious. That San Francisco offense looked abysmal. I wouldn’t even say Seattle’s defense played that well. They played a solid game, but San Francisco’s game plan and execution was awful. It shows you they can only move the ball against bad defenses. They have no shot against any defense worth a damn.
Moving on, I’m curious to see how many people tune into Yahoo for Sunday morning’s game in London between Buffalo and Jacksonville. Half of America will probably wonder what channel the game is on and not realize it’s being streamed online. A lot of other people just won’t go through the effort. It is football, however, which means there will be plenty of people watching. I know I’ll be up for the game because there are plenty of Charles Clay and Allen Robinson shares on my fantasy teams. And one other reason to wake up for the game is…
Locks of the Week:
Buffalo -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Rex takes his trips to London or at least what’s left of his troops. He’s missing his starting quarterback, backup running back, and two starting receivers for this one. Thankfully you can out your whole second unit out there against the putrid Jaguars defense and not have to worry about scoring points. Jacksonville has given up 30+ points three times in their last four games and it’s not like two of those opponents, Tampa Bay and Houston, have elite offenses. Buffalo has all its defensive weapons including two of the top rated corners to slow down Jacksonville’s padding game. Add in the fact that the Jaguars won’t be adjusted to the time change as well as the Bills and this seems like a good spot for Buffalo.
J.Camm’s Pick: Jacksonville
New York Jets +9 over NEW ENGLAND
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out since it’s the best offense in the league against the second best defense in the league according to DVOA. The other side of the ball is a top ten match-up as well. Of course this is the only game this weekend with two winning teams playing each other, so you should enjoy it more than most other games. As great as New England is offensively, the Jets have the best secondary weapons to match the talent on the over side of the ball. It looks as if Buster Skrine, the slot cornerback, will be a go to play on Sunday after sustaining a concussion last week. I think the Jets should keep this close, but would feel even better if Skrine plays. Unless of course the Pats do their usual sketchy stuff like this Texas high school football coach did.
J.Camm’s Pick: New York
MIAMI -4 over Houston
What a difference a new head coach makes. Miami clearly needed to make changes and the results from those changes worked magic last week. The Dolphins finally ran the football on offense and looked menacing on defense. My position on the Texans is still that they’re a bad football team because their only wins are against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Their defense continues to be an issue and Miami should get the points they need to win this by at least a touchdown.
J.Camm’s Pick: Houston
Trap Games of the Week:
DETROIT +3 over Minnesota
It’s weird that two division rivals are already playing their second game against each other this early in the season. I switched my opinion of this game after reading some advanced metrics on how poor Minnesota looked last week against the Chiefs. Detroit turned the ball over three times in their first match-up vs. Minnesota and should stay in this one if they don’t repeat that. Their offense looked a lot better last week and while that did take place against Chicago, it shows Detroit needs to be more aggressive offensively. More of the same would have them taking this home game.
J.Camm’s Pick: Minnesota
Rest of the Picks:
INDIANAPOLIS -4 over New Orleans
The Saints may have beaten Atlanta last week, but it’s not like they dominated. One of their touchdowns came on a punt block and Atlanta lost three fumbles. (They also fumbled twice more that they recovered on their own.) The Falcons basically gave the Saints the game. You’ll look at this contest between New Orleans and Indianapolis and think shootout, but the Saints aren’t the same offensive force as years past. Andrew Luck looked back to full health last Sunday against New England and should be able to score at will here.
J.Camm’s Pick: Indianapolis
Pittsburgh +2 over KANSAS CITY
Landry Jones takes the reins in this one and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Michael Vick couldn’t move the ball at all in recent weeks and the Steelers offense really suffered. The Chiefs defense, 28th in the league against the pass according to Football Outsiders DVOA, should make Landry Jones feel like he’s back at Oklahoma. Pittsburgh pass defense has been their biggest issue and now it looks as if Jeremy Maclin can play. Will he be enough to make the difference? I’m not sure, so I’ll take the points.
J.Camm’s Pick: Pittsburgh
ST. LOUIS -6.5 over Cleveland
I’m still waiting for Josh McCown to fall apart, but if the Broncos can’t do it then maybe it’ll never happen. Still I prefer a good defense to a good offense when given the option and that’s what we have this week. St. Louis should be able to score enough as Todd Gurley runs wild and their defense will hold down the fort against the 26th ranked offensive line according to Football Outsiders.
J.Camm’s Pick: St. Louis
Atlanta -5.5 over TENNESSEE
I’m not sure how this is much different than when Tennessee played Miami last week and Miami blew them out. Atlanta will be able to dominate offensively with their running game and Tennessee just doesn’t have enough offensive punch to keep up. They’ll also likely turn the ball over more if Zach Mettenberger plays. It’ll be clear sailing as long as Atlanta values the football.
J.Camm’s Pick: Atlanta
WASHINGTON -3 over Tampa Bay
It’s unfair to Washington that this spread is as small as it is. They’ve only won twice but their worst opponent faced was Miami. Tampa on the other hand has faced only one team currently playing at .500 or above. The Redskins have missed star offensive tackle Trent Williams from their lineup but he’s back for this week’s contest. Tampa Bay’s defense, which has allowed 31 or more points already three times in five games, doesn’t have the chops to overcome that.
J.Camm’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Oakland +4 over SAN DIEGO
The Chargers should just play all their games on the road. They’re 2-6 as home favorites in their last eight spots. (They’re also only 4-4 straight up.) No wonder they want to move to Los Angeles. Oakland had two weeks to prepare for his game and should see success if they run the football and try to keep San Diego off the field. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for San Diego’s one dimensional offense. Winner gets to move to LA.
J.Camm’s Pick: San Diego
NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Dallas
Apparently Brandon Weeden, aka check-down Charlie, wasn’t being aggressive enough for Cowboys management so they’ve made the switch to Matt Cassel. Life is not good when switching to Cassel is your trump card. Besides what were you expecting from Weeden? You really want him throwing down the field aggressively? There’s a reason he was your backup quarterback. It’s not like the Cowboys defense was helping much. Let’s bring Cassel in Sunday, have him turn the ball over three times, and then re-evaluate how aggressive the quarterback should be.
J.Camm’s Pick: New York
Carolina -3 over Philadelphia
You have to hand it to Cam Newton. He’s out there with arguably the worst receiving core in the league and he’s won every game this year. Maybe he didn’t play anyone good in the first four games, but winning at Seattle is very impressive. Philadelphia has gotten lucky in all their games. The Jets turned the ball over too much. We know the Saints are terrible. The Giants were missing two corner backs and neither of their starting receivers practiced all week. (Maybe the Eagles fans should focus on what this jersey represents instead of talking smack to Giants fans about the game.) This one is going to be the ugliest game of the week, so take the under. The Eagles have a really good defense, but they’ll need some offense to win this one.
J.Camm’s Pick: Carolina
Arizona -8 over Baltimore
As discussed in yesterday’s survivor pick of the week, Arizona is primed to put up points on Monday night. Baltimore will find it hard to keep up with their mediocre offense on both sides of the ball. Regular season Joe Flacco just isn’t good enough to get this done.
J.Camm’s Pick: Arizona
Last Week: 7-6-1