Thursday night’s game played out just as expected. So much so that we’ll just move on to one omission from yesterday’s piece on survivor pool opportunities. I forgot to mention New Orleans, but obviously they’re in play. I’ll talk more on the game ahead, but they’re probably my third or fourth choice for a survivor pick this week. The Saints are always better at home and have seemed to found their offense. They’ll be able to pound the run and take care of Tennessee. There might be a little fuss and we’ll get to that in a few.
Locks of the Week:
N.Y. JETS -7 over Jacksonville
Ryan Fitzpatrick is delaying surgery on his thumb until after the season and why not? This is arguably the best situation Fitzpatrick has ever had in terms of job security and surrounding talent. The Jets defense is the real key to this game after getting embarrassed in Oakland last week. Expect a big effort as they force a couple turnovers from Bortles and coast to a double digit win.
J. Camm’s Pick: N.Y. Jets
PITTSBURGH -4.5 over Oakland
You have to give it to the Raiders. They’ve destroyed the Chargers and Jets in back to back weeks. But this is a young team and young teams generally don’t do well when they’ve had smoke blown up their ass for a couple weeks. Pittsburgh is finding their way defensively after a rough start and while they’ll miss Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams should hold his own as a replacement. The Steelers are clearly a group that sticks together.
J. Camm’s Pick: Pittsburgh
Chicago +4 over San Diego
I’m going to keep betting the Chargers on the road and betting against them at home until I see otherwise. They’re 1-8 in their last 9 at home including five outright losses. There’s a good chance there could be more Bears fans than Chargers fans at the game on Monday night. Chicago let last week get away from them in the final two minutes and I think they’re mentally strong enough to prevent that from happening again.
J. Camm’s Pick: San Diego
Trap Game of the Week:
Tennessee +8.5 over NE W ORLEANS
Maybe it’s time for me to stop hating on the Saints. They’ve won three games in a row against competitive teams (Atlanta, Indianapolis, and the New York Giants) NY displaying strengths in every facet of the game. It just kills me how they’ve won each game with help from some kind of luck. (No pun intended.) It’ll be interesting to see how Tennessee shows up this week given the replacement of their head coach. Let’s be honest, it couldn’t be any worse than it was. Their defense actually hasn’t been that bad so I’m torn on which way to go here. If Mariota plays I think Tennessee can squeak out the cover.
J.Camm’s Pick: New Orleans
Rest of the Picks:
Miami +3 over BUFFALO
We all knew Miami had the chance to get freight trained last week. They should be able to continue their resurgence now that they’re back to playing teams that aren’t the Patriots. Buffalo welcomes Tyrod Taylor back, but their more concerning issue is whether or not the week off fixed their defense. These are two very evenly matched teams and the game should be a close one. I’ll take the points and toast Bills fans while doing so.
J.Camm’s Pick: Miami
Washington +14 over NEW ENGLAND
New England gets to beat up another cream puff this week. They’re obviously winning and will enjoy their post-game beers after doing it. The question is by how much. Washington’s pass defense has fallen apart due to injury in recent weeks and shouldn’t put up much of a fight here. The question will be whether or not Kirk Cousins can keep up with New England to a certain extent on the scoreboard. There’s serious potential for the back door cover here since New England won’t be able to dominate with the running game after taking a big lead. Washington’s run defense can’t hold it together. I just wouldn’t put a mortgage on the line to say it’s the case.
J.Camm’s Pick: New England
St. Louis +2 over MINNESOTA
The Vikings have wins over Detroit (twice), San Diego, Kansas City, and Chicago. Those teams have an average of less than two wins per team. The Rams at least beat Seattle and Arizona. Those are resume wins. I won’t give Minnesota any respect until they beat someone at .500 or above. It doesn’t help that they have the 26th ranked pass protection in the league according to Football Outsiders and St. Louis is second in the league with 26 sacks.
J.Camm’s Pick: St. Louis
CAROLINA +2.5 over Green Bay
For the second week in a row Green Bay is favored as a road team against an undefeated team. Vegas loves giving the Packers some respect, but let’s take a closer look at their offense. Something doesn’t look right despite their top 10 rankings in both passing and running efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Green Bay only scored 17 points at home against San Francisco and only 24 against St. Louis despite grabbing four interceptions from St. Louis. Carolina has answered the bell in every game, so what’s to say they won’t here?
J.Camm’s Pick: Green Bay
N.Y. Giants -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
As a Giants fan I can tell you I know my team really well. Last week’s loss against New Orleans, as crazy as it was, was a typical Giants loss. I barely flinched when it happened. I know the team so well that I’m 7-1 against the spread when picking Giants games this year. If only I could be that accurate with every other team in the league. Here’s what’s going to happen this weekend: You may think the Giants are crushed after the New Orleans loss, but they’re not. They don’t have the brain capacity to sulk. They’ll respond this weekend with flying colors as their pass offense beats up the 29th pass defense in the league according to Football Outsiders. The Giants passing offense is as simple as Odell Beckham. When he’s practiced during the week, Eli has averaged 294 passing yards and 2.67 touchdowns per game. (Take out the crazy Saints game and it’s still 283.4 yards and two touchdowns.) That’s a winning combination if I’ve ever seen one.
J.Camm’s Pick: NY Giants
Atlanta -7 over SAN FRANCISCO
How many points can San Francisco score with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, a combination of Shaun Draughn and Pierre Thomas at running back and Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton as their receivers opposite Torrey Smith. My guess is they won’t pass 10 points. That means Atlanta has to get to 17 or more and they’ve done that in every game this year except one.
J.Camm’s Pick: Atlanta
Denver -5 over INDIANAPOLIS
I’m waiting for the day Peyton Manning has to face a defense 75% as menacing as his own defense. The Colts certainly don’t have what it takes to make noodle arm Manning look abysmal this weekend. Denver should be able to pass and run in the dome at will. On the flip side, their defense leads the league with 29 sacks and should have Andrew Luck running for his life. With T.Y. Hilton looking to miss the game, Luck will be without his favorite receiver. That doesn’t bode well for offensive success to match whatever Denver does.
J.Camm’s Pick: Denver
DALLAS +3 over Philadelphia
You have to give some credit to the Cowboys. They’re really out there trying despite lacking talent on offense. They lost to the Patriots by 24 points, but their three other recent losses have been by a touchdown or less. Maybe Philadelphia figured out how to execute their offense effectively during the bye week. Maybe they didn’t. I’m just going to wait a week to find out and take the points with the home team whose defense is on the rise. Now can someone find Jason Peters’ eyebrows?
J.Camm’s Pick: Philadelphia
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 60-56-5
Locks: 18-7
Survivor: 6-2
J.Camm: 58-58-5
Watch This Jabroni Take A 59 MPH Baseball To The Nuts