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An NFL data analyst suggests the officiating could side with the Chiefs in their upcoming AFC Championship Game vs. the Ravens. That theory revolves around one particular referee, who will lead the crew on Sunday.
That man is Shawn Smith, and according to Warren Sharp, he favors the road team more than any other official in the NFL.
“Home teams have won only 40.8% of games in the last three years with Smith as referee. That is the lowest win rate for any referee in the NFL.”
For reference, home teams have a 55% win rate over that time, nearly 15 points higher than the outcomes of Smith-called contests.
Sharp also looked against the spread, where the percentage drops even further.
“Under Smith, home teams are only 17-29-3 against the spread (37.0%) in the last three years.”
The researcher then went back further than just three years, claiming that Smith boasts the lowest home team win rate in the NFL dating back to 2018.
That data could spell bad news for top-seeded Baltimore despite having that supposed homefield advantage. And it certainly wouldn’t help change the narrative that the league looks out for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs – now more than ever with ratings booster Taylor Swift in attendance every week.
Of course, it would ruin the supposed NFL script/logo conspiracy that suggests the Ravens and 49ers will match up in the Super Bowl.
But why are home teams losing so much in Shawn Smith refereed games?
Sharp looks at penalties as evidence of his road team bias.
According to his numbers, Smith has thrown more false start, roughing the passer, and unnecessary roughness flags against home teams than road teams, a trend that differs vastly from that of a typical NFL game.
“Smith has shown a huge tendency to call penalties that favor road teams in a way no other ref in the NFL has done.”
He further breaks those numbers down in his game preview.
For what it’s worth, Kansas City has played much better on the road this season than they have at home, going 6-2 away from Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season. They also won on the road in their most recent playoff matchup against the Bills.
Will the officiating trend continue in the AFC Championship Game? If so, the road Chiefs could be the beneficiary.