Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect
The 2026 World Cup is just days away and with the world’s most-watched sporting event expanding from 32 to 48 teams this year could be the most exciting in World Cup history. Of course, everyone wants to know who the favorites are, which teams are most likely to win. And one man, German mathematician Joachim Klement, has a stellar record in picking World Cup winners.
German mathematician Joachim Klement’s statistical model used an array of data points including FIFA World Ranking, country population, a mathematical element of surprise, status, economic factors, and more. It isn’t unfair to say he kind of Germany’s version of Nate Silver in that his statistical model has been accurate and brought him fame.
Who Did German Mathematician Joachim Klement Predict To Win 2026 World Cup?
As you already know, the World Cup is held every 4 years around the globe. Meaning Joachim Klement’s streak of successfully picking the World Cup winner using his complex mathematical model stretches back 12 years and counting.
He correctly identified Germany winning in 2014 in Brazil, France winning in 2018 in Russia, and Argentina with Lionel Messi winning the Qatar World Cup in 2022. Who does he have this year? A team that most experts would not expect to be hosting the trophy at the end of the month-long tournament.
This year, for the 2026 World Cup, Joachim Klement’s model has predicted that The Netherlands will beat Spain in the Semifinal and then beat Portugal in the World Cup Final to win the first-ever World Cup title for the country.
According to oddsmakers, The Netherlands have the 8th best odds to win it all. They are -125 to win Group F, a group they share with Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia. They are heavy favorites to win the group at -125. Their odds to make the World Cup Finals are +900 and they are 22-to-1 to win it all despite having never won a World Cup before.
Currently, Netherlands are ranked 7th in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings and their five most recent results are W-D-W-W-D. They have made 11 of 22 World Cups throughout the years and are always a strong presence.
Based strictly on the odds, Spain, France, England, and Brazil are the favorites this year. His model has Brazil losing to Japan in the Round of 32 which is the biggest shock to come out of the predictions.
As for the USMNT, his model only puts Team USA’s chances at 43% of finishing in the top 2 of Group D with Australia, Turkey, and Paraguay. It then predicts the USMNT will face Germany in the Round of 32 and that’s where the predicted road ends for the American squad.