Getty Image / Gregory Shamus
This year’s crop of rookie wide receivers selected during last week’s 2024 NFL Draft are as hyped as any group in recent memory. Many expect this group to produce a bunch of very good NFL players.
But, one analytics guru isn’t so sure. Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points Data claims that this group is very overrated, and he’s got the data to prove it.
Barrett claims that data from the college careers of some of the draft’s wide receivers shows that they have high bust potential.
This year's rookie WR class was billed as being one of the best and deepest in recent memory.
But based on the analytics, it looks massively overrated.
It looks like just about every WR after the Big 3 was wildly overdrafted.
Here's why:
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 29, 2024
One of our most predictive metrics is career YPRR.
And one of our best (very low) thresholds is 2.00 career YPRR.
In this year's class, a staggeringly high number of early-drafted WRs failed to clear this important benchmark.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 29, 2024
WRs Drafted Since 2020 w/ a Career YPRR <2.00
+ Drafted Rounds 1-3+ Amari Rodgers
+ Tyquan Thornton
+ Devin Duvernay
+ Jonathan Mingo
+ Terrace Marshall Jr.
+ Michael Wilson
+ Chase Claypool
+ Josh Palmer
+ Van Jefferson+ Brian Thomas Jr.
+ Ricky Pearsall
+ Ja'Lynn Polk
+…— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 29, 2024
This is definitely some interesting research, and it does seem like the data is pretty conclusive. But, it”s hard not to be excited about this crop of wide receivers.
I think the top three guys that went in the top ten, Cardinals’ Marvin Harrison Jr., Giants’ Malik Nabers, and the Bears’ Rome Odunze, are all guys that Barrett would agree grade out pretty well on the metrics. And, I think most assume those three will be fantastic pros.
It’s guys like the Jaguars’ Brian Thomas Jr., Chiefs’ Xavier Worthy, Bills’ Keon Coleman and others that will likely define if this wide receiver class lives up to its expectations.
Overall, an astonishing 35 wide receivers were taking in the NFL Draft’s 7 rounds.