The 7 Best Quarterbacks In Your 2015 Fantasy Football Draft

by 4 years ago

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Don’t look now, but fantasy football season is right around the corner. Over the next week, we’ll be previewing the four major positions in fantasy football. Top it off with a list of sleepers at every position on Friday and you’ll be ready to go for your draft. We use standard non-PPR scoring for all our rankings.

The quarterback position is an overvalued one in most fantasy football league. The difference between QB3 and QB12 last year was 3.65 points a game. That’s a very small amount and if you’re starting QBs based on matchups, you can make that margin even smaller. Think about it for a second. There are 32 starting QBs in the NFL but most leagues only start one per team. That equates to 12 QBs in a standard 12-team league or 37.5% of the starting pool. Compare that to running backs, where you start at least two per team, potentially three if you play one at a flex position. Let’s say half of the teams in the league use an RB at flex. That means 30 RBs are started every week. That’s 93.75% of starting running backs and even if some are splitting carries in a time share, that’s nowhere near the percentage of QBs.

It’s simple math. QBs are just not as valuable as RBs because of the position scarcity, so there’s no reason to spend early picks on them. The situation changes slightly in leagues with six points for passing touchdowns (the variance between QB and RB points grows dramatically) and leagues that start two QBs (you’re now using 75% of the starting QB pool). Otherwise you wait, wait, wait on QBs…

1. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers

It should be no surprise to anyone that Aaron Rodgers tops the list of fantasy QBs coming into the 2015 NFL season. With the resigning of Randall Cobb, the Packers have their full complement of weapons back for another season. Jordy Nelson will continue to serve as Rodgers’ home run threat and whoever emerges at the third receiver spot between Davante Adams and improving second year player Jeff Janis will help move the chains. Even if Green Bay’s offensive line gets a little best up, Rodgers’ ability to move around will keep him ahead of the pack. Just think about the fact that he’s been in the top two in QB fantasy points in six of the last seven seasons. That consistency is ridiculous. Only three times all season did he score less than 14.7 points in a game.

2. Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts

Continuing with QBs who have a full complement of weapons, Andrew Luck comes into his third season in the league looking to enjoy some new toys the franchise has provided for him. The addition of Andre Johnson will be an upgrade on the outside from Reggie Wayne and Luck still has T.Y. Hilton on the other side. The Colts spoiled themselves when they drafted speedster Phillip Dorsett in the first round in the draft. Donte Moncrief may be the forgotten man, but the second year man from Ole Miss has many people believing he’ll eventually be a star in this league. That’s not bad for a third receiver. The lack of a great running game mean Luck will continue to throw heavily all season. He was right behind Rodgers in scoring last season and he could potentially move ahead if he cuts down the interceptions.

3. Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks

We weren’t sure weather Wilson was capable of being as success in his second year after his tremendous rookie season, but he showed that wasn’t a problem. Now he comes into his third campaign with one of the game’s two great tight ends. Jimmy Graham will immensely help Russell Wilson throw the seam route and get passing touchdowns in the red zone. Wilson wasn’t doing too bad without Graham, so he addition will take him to the next level. His running ability means he very rarely has a bad game. He scored in double digits in every game he played last year’s 16-week fantasy season.

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