This One Crazy Stat Proves That Thursday’s March Madness Games Murdered So Many Brackets

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

There’s a moment after we fill out our brackets where we convince ourselves that we have the perfect one, despite the odds of that being the case hovering around 1 in 128 billion. Guessing just 32 games correctly without using data or past knowledge is the equivalent of flipping a coin 32 times and always landing heads–or 1 in 4,294,967,296.

That, according to For the Win, is 15 times harder than winning the lottery with one ticket.

Odds are, with big bad Arizona getting waxed by Buffalo yesterday, your bracket is about as solid as baby’s stool. I, for one, am fucked. But, with a lot of basketball yet to be played, I’m far from the only one whose bracket is busted. Check out this insane stat:

Hey, but it’s just as difficult to be perfect as it is to be the opposite. Consistency is a near impossible endeavor.

World famous investor Warren Buffet knows how astronomical the odds are, which is precisely why he offers insane payouts to his Berkshire Hathaway employees for flawless brackets. This year, Buffett is offering $1 million a year for life if they correctly guess which teams make it to the Sweet 16.

For context, last year, of the 18.8 million brackets filled out on ESPN, only 18 people picked a perfect Sweet 16.

Best of luck to everyone on expectations never meeting reality.

[h/t For the Win]

Matt Keohan Avatar
Matt’s love of writing was born during a sixth grade assembly when it was announced that his essay titled “Why Drugs Are Bad” had taken first prize in D.A.R.E.’s grade-wide contest. The anti-drug people gave him a $50 savings bond for his brave contribution to crime-fighting, and upon the bond’s maturity 10 years later, he used it to buy his very first bag of marijuana.