Statisticians at the University of Innsbruck ran a simulation of 100,000 World Cup matches to predict the winner of the 2026 tournament, and it may not be the team many people think. It is also definitely not going to be the United States, at least according to the stats.
According to the statisticians, “probabilistic forecasts for the 2026 FIFA World Cup are obtained by using a hybrid model that combines data, expert insights, and advanced statistical models.”
What does that mean? It means a lot of things that most people probably wouldn’t understand. (Myself included.)
“The forecast is based on a machine learning algorithm that blends a variety of different sources of information: An ability estimate for every team based on historic matches; an ability estimate for every team based on odds from 24 bookmakers; average ratings of the players in each team based on their individual performances in their home clubs and national teams; the average market value of all players in each team according to a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach; further team and country covariates (e.g., FIFA and Elo ratings or GDP). A machine learning algorithm is trained on the results of all major football tournaments (Men’s World Cups and Euros) between 2006 and 2024 and then applied to current information to obtain a forecast for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”
See what I mean? The researchers were kind enough, however, to try to simplify their explanation, writing, “More specifically, the algorithm estimates the predicted number of goals for all possible matches between all 48 teams in the tournament.”
Using the predicted number of goals they can then “simulate all matches in the group phase and which teams proceed to the knockout stage and who eventually wins.”
So, based on the simulations, who has the best chance of winning the 2026 World Cup?
Running the simulation 100,000 times determines each team’s chances of winning. With a winning probability of 14.5%, Spain is the clear favorite for the title, followed by a tie between England and France at 12.4%, and then Germany at 11.2%. Portugal at 8.9% and Argentina at 8.2% round out the top five.
They are all followed by Netherlands (5.6%), Brazil (4.7%), Belgium (3.0%), Norway (2.6%), and Switzerland (2.1%).
As for the United States, the simulations give the USMNT a scant 1.0% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup.
“Comparing our forecasts to those based only on the bookmakers odds, it is striking that Germany is ranked 4th, closely behind the three top teams, while it is only ranked 7th by many bookmakers,” the researchers wrote. “Conversely, Brazil and Argentina are typically ranked higher by the bookmakers but perform worse in our machine-learning-calibrated simulation.”
Just be warned. “All our forecasts are probabilistic, clearly below 100%, and hence by no means certain,” they added.