Tour Championship Betting Guide From An Expert Who’s Had An Incredible PGA Betting Run
**Editor’s Note: Kevin Dudzinki is ranked in the top 5% of all DFS players, according to Rotogrinders.com, and has made a killing on fantasy since he started in 2013. Learn more about Kev HERE and follow him on Twitter HERE.***
John Rahm staved off Dustin Johnson with an epic putt on 18 last week at the BMW Championship, in one of the most exciting endings we’ve seen on tour in a while.
We had some shots at taking this tournament down, but ultimately, our guys faded down the stretch, mostly Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy who were right at the top of the leaderboard, but faded as Sunday went along.
We arrive to the Tour Championship, the very last event of the 2020 season. It’s been a hell of a ride this year, and I’m looking forward to kicking off the 2021 season next week and brining more to come. Some of the stats from the 2020 season include:
- Picked the winner 6 of the last 9 weeks
- Picked the winner 7 of 11-2 weeks since the PGA tour returned
- $100 bets a week since the PGA tour returned in June would have you up $1,521
- $100 bets a week since the season began in 2020 would have you up $2,542
It’s quite the run, and it sets us up for a lot of success in 2021!
We head to East Lake Country club for the Tour Championship this week. This event is quite unique, as there are only 30 golfers left in the playoffs, and the way it starts is quite different. Based on your FedEx Cup standings position, you start with strokes off your score. Dustin Johnson, who is in first place in the standings will begin the week at -10 and already in first place. John Rahm, in second place, begins at -8, and Justin Thomas, in third place, begins at -7. This continues all the way down until we hit the bottom five guys, who start the week even par (Smith, Hovland, Hughes, Champ, Horschel). So the odds for the top guys are way worse than usual, and not as many players have a legit shot at winning this week.
With all that information, we need to shrink our card in order to make some money, because someone like Dustin Johnson is just +200. Not a lot of value in betting DJ this week, so we need to go down the board a bit, and hope someone has a big week.
Let’s have a look at who we are going to be rooting for to bring home some cash for us this week.
Below is a refresher on how I am allocating my bets this week, and who I like to take down the Tour championship.
As far as betting, I’ll keep track of the overall performance for the year each week. The important thing to understand is that betting on golf is hard. Most weeks we are going to lose, but one winning week, can make up for multiple losing weeks. I’m taking a long term approach, and hoping to finish the season up. As you will see, we are going to spread our money out to multiple players, and hopefully grind out a profit.
Each week, I am going to put one unit in play. That unit is going to be divided up between all the players I want to bet on. This unit can be whatever you feel comfortable losing in a week, but should remain consistent throughout the season. If you move the amount all over the place each week, your chances of profiting decrease quite a bit. With that being said, let’s take a look at who I’m targeting to take down this event.
Now let’s take a look at players I have the most interest in using in DK tournaments. I will pick two players that I am the most interested in using, from three different tiers—$9,000 and up, $7500-$8900, and under $7500.
A smaller field without a cut, means we can feel more confident in lower priced guys, as they are guaranteed to score points for us all four rounds.
Let’s take a look at who we should be building our DK lineups around this week
Justin Thomas $10,800
Another week, and another model that spits out Justin Thomas as the best golfer in the field. Good form, good long-term stats, and a good history here, make Thomas the guy I am going to target the most from the high-priced studs. He only has to make up three strokes to get to first place, so he’s certainly in play to win this tournament. When you compare prices to Rahm and DJ, it’s tough to get them in their lineup in comparison to JT.
Rory McIlroy $9,700
McIlroy won this tournament last year, making up a 5-stroke deficit at the beginning of the week to win. This year, he needs to make up 7, but let’s face it, he’s Rory McIlroy. When he’s on, no other golfer in the field can match him. With his discounted price, he doesn’t have to win, but he needs to get up there. There’s no doubt in my mind he can pull that off.
Xander Schauffele $8,900
Schauffele begins the week at -3, so we shouldn’t have very big expectations for him to take this tournament down. However, he’s won here in the past, and generally plays well in big tournaments. He ranks highly in my model, so he can certainly get himself into contention, and even though he will probably fall short of winning, he can certainly pay off his salary.
Tyrell Hatton $7,000
A fixture in this article recently, Hatton rides good form, good long-term stats, and a cheap salary to be included this week. Another guy with upside to get hot and backdoor a top 5 even though he starts at -2, Hatton allows you to pay up elsewhere.
Billy Horschel $5,700
If we are looking for a golfer to make a big jump from their starting position for cheap, Billy Horschel is going to be that guy for me. Horschel has been in great form recently, and he has a history of success at East Lake Golf Club. Coming in my model at 11th at essentially the bare minimum price, he makes paying for guys at the top a bit easier.
Viktor Hovland $6,600
My other cheap play this week will be Viktor Hovland, who’s been one of the best golfers on tour this year. He’s consistently made cuts, and has the ability to get very low. While he may not be able to get all the way to the top this week from his starting position, getting into the top ten and maybe even top five is certainly in his range of outcomes.
Good luck this week, and see you at the top of the leaderboards!