Safeway Open Betting Guide From An Expert Who’s Had A White Hot PGA Betting Run

by 3 months ago

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**Editor’s Note: Kevin Dudzinki is ranked in the top 5% of all DFS players, according to Rotogrinders.com, and has made a killing on fantasy since he started in 2013. Learn more about Kev HERE and follow him on Twitter HERE.***

And just like that the 2020 PGA Tour season has come to a close.

Dustin Johnson earned the right to start the Tour Championship in the first place position with a fire stretch run, and played the weekend perfect, firing a 64 on Sunday, on the way to his first FedEx Championship win, and a cool $15 million dollar pay day.

It was a hugely successful year for my picks, as we finished +24.42 units, which means if you bet $100 each week then you would have profited $2,442 on the year.

In what is surely the shortest offseason in sports history, the PGA Tour kicks off the 2021 season this week with the Safeway Open. So let’s get started on beating last year’s numbers and keep putting some cash in our pockets.

The Safeway Open has been played at the Silverado Resort and Spa the last few years, so we have some history to cross reference with our model.

Over the last few years, a few stats jump out at me that the leaders have excelled at. As usual tee to green and approach shots are important. This tournament seems to end with the leader shooting around -16 to -18, so we automatically know we need birdie makers. One interesting stat I saw is a lot of the top guys on the leaderboard find themselves gaining a lot of strokes on Par 4’s that range in 400-450 yards, so we are throwing that in our model this week as well.

And remember, shop around at different books. You can get better odds on golfers at different sites.

Let’s take a look at the guys who are going to get us started on the right foot this season.

As far as betting, I’ll keep track of the overall performance for the year each week. The important thing to understand is that betting on golf is hard. Most weeks we are going to lose, but one winning week, can make up for multiple losing weeks. I’m taking a long term approach, and hoping to finish the season up. As you will see, we are going to spread our money out to multiple players, and hopefully grind out a profit.

Each week, I am going to put one unit in play. That unit is going to be divided up between all the players I want to bet on. This unit can be whatever you feel comfortable losing in a week, but should remain consistent throughout the season. If you move the amount all over the place each week, your chances of profiting decrease quite a bit.  With that being said, let’s take a look at who I’m targeting to take down this event.

Now we’ll look at players I have the most interest in using on DraftKings in their tournaments. In these articles, I am going to pick two players that I am the most interested in using, from three different tiers. $9,000 and up, $7500-$8900, and under $7500.

This event kicks off the 2021 PGA Tour season, so we are back at a regular cut event.

Let’s take a look at who we should be building our DK lineups around this week

$9,000+

Brendan Steele $10,000

Most of the top players in the world are sitting this event out, preparing for the US Open next week. So we have some unusual suspects up at the top. That doesn’t mean we should avoid them though. Brendan Steele has won this event twice in the last five years, and made the cut every year. Love the consistency.

Harold Varner III $9,1000

Varner ranks third in my model, and has made the cut here every year the last five years, including 3 top 20’s. He’s first in this field in long term tee to green, and is elite in several other categories. He should be in contention on the weekend.

$7500-$8900

Cameron Tringale $7,500

Coming in first in my model, Tringale is a great salary saver this week. He’s the best in the field at approach shots, and is the best player at the key Par 4 distances we are looking for. His price is too cheap this week.

Cameron Davis $8,900

Davis is fourth In my model, and the only reason he isn’t higher, is he ranks very poorly putting on poa grass. However, Davis is an outstanding putter in general, so I expect him to putt better than he has showed on poa this week, which means he’s an even better play than his 4th overall ranking shows. For only $8900 he’s a great play.

Under $7500

Talor Gooch $7,300

Gooch has played well since golf resumed, making the cut 4 out of the last 5 weeks in some loaded fields. He ranks 8th in our model, and his price helps us pay up for some of our higher priced targets. He’s improved his birdie making of late, so he’s in good form.

Adam Schenk $6,900

Salary saver of the week is Adam Schenk, who ranks 18th in my model, and on average gains a half a stroke on the field each round he plays at this course. For under $7,000 he should be able to return solid value, with an outside shot at being in contention on Sunday.

Good luck this week, and see you at the top of the leaderboards!

Kevin left his career in corporate America to play daily fantasy sports for a living. He is currently ranked in the top 10% of players in all daily fantasy sports.

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